It's funny to see many people calculating the possibilities to run 10000m looking at the PB of one athlete in other events, WITHOUT KNOWING THE TYPE OF TRAINING THE ATHLETE USES.
Every calculation (with the calculator of Ventolin or with any other system) cant indicate the real possibilities at the moment without knowing the training.
What Ventolin can do (I don't say it's right or not) is to calculate the THEORICAL POSSIBILITIES OF AN ATHLETE, and under this point of view the interpolation between known data can be ok and can help to have a correct idea.
However, for reaching the personal theorical limit every athlete needs a good SPECIFIC training, and training for 10000m is very different from training for 5000m.
In 2004, in Bruxelles, the same day Shaheen bettered the WR of steeple and there was a great 3000 with Eliud Kipchoge winner in 7'27" and Kwalia 2nd in 7'28", there was a 10000m, too. When I arrived in the warm-up area after the two other competitions, I met Richard Limo (at the moment World Champion of 5000m) who asked me "Renato, how is the race ?", and I answered "I have Albert (Ahmed Hassan Abdullah, former Albert Chepkurui) and Mark Bett looking for something under 27', and also there is Charles Kamathi with the same goal, so I put the pacers for the first 5 km in 13'28" / 13'30" because I want 5-6 athletes together till 8 km. This is the best way for running under 27'". Richard told me "Perfect, it's exactly what I want to do, BECAUSE AT THE MOMENT I'M IN GOOD SHAPE".
The race was perfect under the point of view of the pace, with every km about 2'41" / 2'42", and Richard Limo after 7 km was in the leading group of 5 people.
In the last 3 km, he lost contact and at the end was lapped. Albert won in 26'58", Kamathi second in 26'59" and Mark Bett third in 27'02", for Richard 28'12" or 28'19", now I don't remember exactly....
Six days later there was the Golden league in Berlin, and Richard won 5000m in 12'56", so he was really in shape... but for 5000, not 10000 !
There is not ONE SHAPE, but there are SPECIFIC SHAPES for different distances, depending on the type of preparation.
Personally, I think Isiah Koech can become the best Kenyan specialist in 10000m, like Caleb Ndiku can become the best in 5000m for next year. Of course, till when the athletes representing Kenya in 10000m in top Championships are half marathon runners, they NEVER can have some chance against Mo Farah, Galen Rupp or Jeylan or Imane Merga fit and in shape, because these athletes are able to finish last lap in 53", while the best Kenyan of this year, for example, are not able running 53" in a competition of 400m only...
Isiah Koech can run 1500m in 3'33" / 3'32" in a fast race, of course without winning, and this time is not far from the level of Mo. Caleb already has several 3'32", can run near 3'30" (this year lost April and May for malaria), and in his first 3000m outdoor ran 7'30"99. So, the only way for being competitive for a big championship is to prepare the longer distance. But, if there is not a long period of specific preparation (see Eliud Kipchoge in Eugene), 10000m are very long and a specialist of 5000m in shape cant go at the fast speed longer than 8 km.
When one is prepared (and, of course, more talented for this specific distance), the difference between the PB in 5000 and in 10000 is not very high, remaining inside 40" more than the double of the PB in 5000m. I have in my group several athletes, real specialist of 10000m, demonstrating this fact :
Nicholas Kemboi 13'01" / 26'30" (+28")
John Korir 13'09" / 26'52" (+33")
Geoffrey Kirui 13'21" / 26'55" (+13")
Ahmed Hassan 12'56" / 26'38" (+46")
Florence Kiplagat 14'40" / 30'11" (+51")
On the other side, I have some specialist of 5000m able running a very good 10000m with one month of specific preparation, but in this case the difference is bigger :
Mark Bett 12'55" / 26'52" (+1'02")
Imane Merga 12'53" / 26'48" (+1'02")
Sylvia Kibet 14'31" / 30'47" (+1'45")
One of the biggest mistakes Kenyan coaches do preparing 10000m is that, in their training camp, forget every training of endurance (for example, 15 km continuous run at 90% of the speed of the race, or long intervals as 5 x 2000m with 3' / 4' recovery at a speed of the race) for pushing on short speed, with the only result to destroy the athletes losing also the shape they have.
This happened, for example, this year with Geoffrey Kirui. I spoke with Kenyan Federation after the Trials in Eugene, when he, still junior, went in front during the last km trying to push for being selected, knowing he doesn't have final speed, and finished number 5 very near 27'.
AK gave him a wild card for World Junior, because Kenyan Trials for Juniores were 10 days later, and of course it was not possible to run 10000m again. But he had to go in the official training camp, following the plan of the responsible. No more endurance, speed almost every day, and he went to World Junior completely out of shape.
About Kenneth Kipkemoi, in the presentation of LR there is a mistake, when Wejo asks "why he didn't go for WJCh".
The fact is Kenneth is not born in 1994, like last year appeared as mistake, but in 1984. However, he is a strong marathon runner, and can run under 27' (may be 26'50") if the pace is correct.