Is Rudisha the only lock on gold in London

Cam Lev... actually never mind

There will never be a lock in the 800m.

Dennis Reynolds wrote:

There will never be a lock in the 800m.

There will never be a lock in any event.

KB in the 10000m

Logical Man wrote:

Dennis Reynolds wrote:

There will never be a lock in the 800m.

There will never be a lock in any event.

Yeah nobody is a lock for anything. But bolt, rudisha, kiprop, and mo all have a good shot at taking home gold

800m is the most unpredictable of all races.

Never a lock.

You don't see Coe and Kipketer with any Olympic Gold medals in the 800.

Rudisha easily had the world lead in 2009 and did not make it out of the semis.

Kaki had the world lead in 2008 and did not make it out of the semis.

The 2007 world leader was 7th in he 2007 WC's

The 2005 world leadeer was 4th

The 2004 world leader did not make the Olympic final

Etc., etc.

Last year Rudisha won.

Kipketer won a few world championships.

Rudisha is one of the biggest favorites this year along with Bolt.

Some crazy runner guy wrote:

Yeah nobody is a lock for anything. But bolt, rudisha, kiprop, and mo all have a good shot at taking home gold

I don't think Mo's chances are anywhere near as high as the others you list.

I'd put the odds of at least one gold for these folks at something like:

Bolt: 99% (Does this guy ever lose? Plus he has 3 - 4 events. Hard to imagine zero golds for him)

Rudisha: 80% (Incredibly dominant - Could almost say 99% but the 800 is a strange beast)

Kiprop: 70% (He has shown some inconsistency)

Mo: 30% (Bekele, Lagat, others. Honestly, I'm not sure that I would list Mo as the favorite in any event and certainly I would not take him over "The Field" in any event)

Sally Pearson 110h is looking pretty bulletproof.

Ashton Eaton will be odds-on deca fave, although a bit young, he seems super-solid mentally.

Are you sure he's a lock?

Are you so sure that you would bet every single last penny that you have in your name and win nothing back in return if he wins? Are you so sure you would let every inmate American have their way with you if he loses? Are you so sure you would eat your own feces if he loses?

If you even have to think about the answer to any of the questions above, then no, David Rudisha is not a lock.

No one is ever a lock for anything. That's why you run the damn race. You could put '05 Kenenisa Bekele in a D3 10k and he's not a lock.

Valerie Adams in the SP maybe...probably chicherova in the hj, if vlasic is hurt.

But nothing is a lock, even rudisha

I think he is a lock. Yes, the 800m is hard to predict. But, when you are a front runner and that much better than the field, you can dictate your own tactics. His style of racing is why he is a sure thing.

I say he is 95%, barring something like an injury.

I think Bolt is 90% in the 200m, 85% in the 100m.

Current Betting Prices according to Pinnacle

Will Bolt Win 100?

Yes -207 (= 67.43%)

No +194

Will Rudisha Win 800?

Yes -348 (= 77.68%)

No +320

Nobody is a lock, but if I had to bet on one man winning gold I'd put my money on Rudisha. Including women Sally Pearson is probably almost as much of a heavy favorite as Rudisha.

agip wrote:

Valerie Adams in the SP maybe...probably chicherova in the hj, if vlasic is hurt.

But nothing is a lock, even rudisha

Consider This wrote:

Nobody is a lock, but if I had to bet on one man winning gold I'd put my money on Rudisha. Including women Sally Pearson is probably almost as much of a heavy favorite as Rudisha.

Adams, Chicherova Rudisha and Pearson are all favorites but they are also in events that are completely unpredictable.

Remember the 08 100HH and Lolo? She was untouchable all season until that one race.

Vlasic in the HJ in 08 was untouchable all year until she lost on misses to Hellabaut.

How about Isinbaeva in Berlin?

Or the 3 American shot putters who will dominate a season and struggle under the weight of a major championship.

Even Rudisha lost to Amann in Milan. It was rainy, they went through the quarter in 50.5 and Rudisha just didnt have it. Anyone can beat anyone.

Locksmith wrote:

I think he is a lock. Yes, the 800m is hard to predict. But, when you are a front runner and that much better than the field, you can dictate your own tactics. His style of racing is why he is a sure thing.

I say he is 95%, barring something like an injury.

I think Bolt is 90% in the 200m, 85% in the 100m.

Is it a "lock" if it's a <95% probability of winning (95% less the probability of injury)?

I think a "lock" = 100%. No one is ever a lock.

getting tripped or spiked heavily may impact any 800 race.

At the present form, however, no one goes in with such an overwelming favorite role. Know of no one else running close to 1:42 at this point.

I agree mostly, but I still think Rudisha is a heavy favorite. The dude is just a monster, and is obviously already in phenomenal shape (I guess no one told him "it's early and it's an Olympic year," like they told Webb and Bekele).

Just out of curiosity, how do people feel about the OP's use of the word "lock" for Rudisha?