Could Lance win the Ironman in Hawaii?

I raced IMUSA (Lake Placid) the year that Larsen won it. (I was 45th, a decent but not great result.) Dude rode something like 4:30 for a pretty challenging bike course. LA is a significantly better cyclist and swimmer than Larsen was.

some of you forget that triathlon puts a specific toll on your body and it is misleading to estimate performances based on past achievements in one of the three events.

Take Tim Don for example, probably the best runner on the World cup circuit based on past PR's, who was within 40 seconds to Haile in a 10k last year. He gets routinely beaten in the triathlons and doesn't even have the best running splits. I am not saying he is doing bad or anything, he is a great triathlete and could win WC's, but he just hasn't won a world cup in a while.

So we need to consider this with Lance. A 50 min swim has an impact on your bike performance that others, top swimmers, and more frequent competitors can deal with better. I don't know how Lance will handle the swim, my first post was before I read that he swam a 49 min open water 2.4 (that's why I said I am not sure if he has the best bike split - now that I read about his swimming I am more inclined to say that yes, he can do it).

And let's not forget his best Marathon was what? 2:45 or 2:50xx? If it was better I stand corrected. I don't want to bash him.

But professional triathletes at that level know how to get off the bike so that they can still run. It is just a matter of racing frequently and experience. Chances are good Lance will blow up on the run.

Hey...Usain Bolt runs 9.5 for 100m. Could he be competitive at the ironman? Moron!!

So many of you are fixated on the swim, by far the least important part of Iron distance triathlon. The fastest swimmer has never once won Kona.

Bottom line, Lance could come off the bike with a 20+ min lead, and not come near winning. Guys like Crowie could go sub 2:30 in the open marathon, and can run much closer to his max off the bike than Lance ever could. His run was his weakness when he was young, and it certainly is now.

nerp wrote:

Bottom line, Lance could come off the bike with a 20+ min lead, and not come near winning. Guys like Crowie could go sub 2:30 in the open marathon, and can run much closer to his max off the bike than Lance ever could. His run was his weakness when he was young, and it certainly is now.

I guess we can quibble over what "close to winning" means but Lance's open marathon PR is 2:46 and he'll probably better that significantly this year. I am sure that he could finish in the money at Kona but there's no way he could beat the top IM pros who are 10 years younger than him.

Sort of a related thought but I am certain there are a lot of professional cyclists who could crush the triathlon world and rewrite the record books with a year or two of transition. Professional cycling sucks up a lot of very gifted athletes because there is enough money that you can actually make a living as a cyclist unlike professional triathlon.

Don't make me laugh...

Oh Please wrote:

Lance wrote:

You guys know nothing about Armstrong. He started with this kind of stuff. He still works out everyday, and is in amazing shape. He may be old, but he is strong. do you homework.

Yea, I can see how doing Triathlons in the late 80s would translate to beating the best in the world over 20 years later, as age 40 approaches. Makes perfect sense.

Perhaps he should try to win the NYC marathon too. He may be old, but he is strong and in amazing shape, and after all he used to run before the cycling career took off.

It reminds all the bs created by Runners World about trying to compare his cycling times with his supposed running times on the marathon. They mentioned that he could run 2:06 for the marathon. Sure, he did....please.

Tri-gal wrote:

johnny buck wrote:

Depends... how much doping is there in triathlons?

LiveWrong

Very little. I'm sure it isn't completely without, but several professional triathletes went into triathlons because in the sports they had been in, such as cycling, the only way to get to the top was through doping and that just wasn't what they wanted to do.

Are you serious? Do you thing that a person that used to dope in cycling and decide to do triathlons, would stop doping over night?

Andy Schleck wrote:

Yes. Steve Larsen was a former pro cyclist who won Wildflower and finished 9th at Kona in the early 2000's. Armstrong was a better bike racer than Larsen. So, Armstrong will finish better than 9th at Kona, and yes, I think he could win.

YEs,...and when all the doping scandals started to become public, he just vanished. Interesting, no?

Big Leg wrote:

Andy Schleck wrote:

Yes. Steve Larsen was a former pro cyclist who won Wildflower and finished 9th at Kona in the early 2000's. Armstrong was a better bike racer than Larsen. So, Armstrong will finish better than 9th at Kona, and yes, I think he could win.

YEs,...and when all the doping scandals started to become public, he just vanished. Interesting, no?

Actually, Larsen died a couple of years ago.

The Hawaii swim course is not that fast. I used to train with Lars Jorgensen, who had the record there for a while and who was a beast of a swimmer, and his take was that it was a relatively slow swim course because navigation and the fact that it's a no-wetsuit swim really slow it down.

Lance had problems with hydration on occasion in the Tour. In IM, it's not just staying hydrated for the bike, it's hydrating in order to prepare for the run. LA has to do that like everyone else.

Like nearly all pro cyclists, LA's bike position is further back than the average triathlete's. I know that he tweaked his position in order to remove the ump in his upper back by moving him forward, but it's still not as aggressive as the guys who are used to running off the bike.

His bike position is a complete non issue; he is one of the best TT riders in the world and would be superior riding an iron distance. If Lance needed or wanted some tweak to his position he or his coaches could find it.

Johnny Rotten wrote:

Lance had problems with hydration on occasion in the Tour. In IM, it's not just staying hydrated for the bike, it's hydrating in order to prepare for the run. LA has to do that like everyone else.

The Ironman bike course is a wonderfully catered ride with fresh cold water and carbohydrate drink available every 10 miles of the bike so there should be no problems staying well hydrated.

I am not talking about two years ago. I bet he died to heart attack.

Your bike position in IM racing is important insofar as your bike time goes, yes, but it's critical insofar as your run goes. Too far back and low, and you're going to have back pain and you're going to use too much ass and hamstring during the ride. You don't want that. You want to be somewhat forward and high so you are quad dominant and so that you save your lower back and everything else for the run. LA would probably figure that out, but he might not. It's a totally valid point.

Seriously, if you don't know what you're talking about STFU.

Yeah, Lance Armstrong and his coaches will never know what some dude on the Let's Run forum does about how to position himself on the bike to leave one capable of doing a good run.

Triathlons are dumb. Just a bunch of rich white dudes that shave their legs.

If you are not good at any sports than become a triathlon'er. Then you can pretend that you are an athlete and tell everyone how cool you are.

I totally agree, Dumb, that he will ride an incredible 112 miles on the Queen K. I totally agree that he and his team should be able to find the best position on the bike for him also to be able to run well. But if he doesn't, if he retains something approximating his regular TT position, I predict a debacle for him.

As for hydration: Lance nearly lost a TDF TT to dehydration. Lots of great athletes, including experienced IM athletes, foul that up.