BRF wrote:
It'll be interesting to see how much of a shakeup there is in next year's meet. I'd say the *very* early book puts Columbia as the favorite. I'd look for Cornell to move up (and would say the same for Harvard, except I've learned not to make predictions for them). And I think Yale could be the real surprise next year.
Here are the scores with this year's seniors and next year's would-be non-scorers (> 7) taken out. Figured this pretty fast, might have effed up somewhere, but the gist of it is pretty apparent.
Princeton 1-4-6-9-14 = 34
Columbia 2-3-8-11-12 = 36
Cornell 5-18-19-22-24 = 88
Dartmouth 10-13-16-37-42 = 118
Yale 7-21-28-31-45 = 132
Brown 17-27-29-30-41 = 144
Harvard 20-26-32-34-38 = 150
Penn 36-39-40-46-49 = 210
So if next year's race only contained this year's non-seniors, several things stand out.
1) It should be a really, really tight 2-team donnybrook FTW (Columbia's 7th returner finished ahead of Princeton's 6th, FWIW)
2) Dartmouth gets nailed hard by graduation and falls off sharply after #3
3) Brown takes just as hard of a graduation hit up front
4) Yale will have to get a damn sight better to be the real surprise next year
5) Harvard had better hope for 50 degrees and no rain/snow, mud, rocks, sticks, sharp turns, bugs, uneven footing or a paper bag threatening to blow across the course so they can give their full team the green light to start the race, then they've got the firepower to get 3rd (heh-heh, had to pile on there)
6) We should all cut Penn some slack this year with what they've been through, but they had better do some serious recruiting or they'll be looking up out of the cellar for years