What will Lukas Verzbikas (LV) run as a freshman in college?

LV is built to run XC. A top 10 or better finish shouldn't surprise. Freshman have won the NCAA XC title in the past?!

cfdvfvgbgfr wrote:

u guys saying 13:20 are crazy. 13:40 would be phenomenal for LV as a freshman, 13:20 isn't gonna happen.

also, i very much doubt he will be in the 3:35 range. i expect him to peak around 3:38-3:40 next year with a good shot a making it to the 1500 final.

Didn't Derrick and GF both break 13:30 their freshman year (including summer)? How is it crazy that LV might do somewhat better? I would not be surprised by low 13:20s.

Rashid Ramzi 2012 wrote:

He'll run well because he is at least 2-3 years older than most of his competitors. Just like the Kenyan at Bible Thumping U.

Actually, he is the about the same age as the rest of the incoming freshman class +/- six months.

JB800/1500 wrote:

personally i feel like next year he wont do much, and maybe even the year after. look at galen, didnt start dominating until junior and senior years.

Galen was set AJRs in 3k and 10k and was 2nd at NCAAs in the 10k after making the race in his first race of his first season. Getting 2nd-4th season after season is a form of domination, seeing as most who get that high up only do it once, or twice, and then follow up it up with wasted seasons or entire years.

cfdvfvgbgfr wrote:

u guys saying 13:20 are crazy. 13:40 would be phenomenal for LV as a freshman, 13:20 isn't gonna happen.

also, i very much doubt he will be in the 3:35 range. i expect him to peak around 3:38-3:40 next year with a good shot a making it to the 1500 final.

German ran 13:25 as a freshman at USAs, I don't think it is too crazy to think Lukas can run 13:20 seeing as he is a faster high school runner than German was.

dewdd

i doubt this kid can handle the college lifestyle. hes gunna drink till he pukes every night, have unprotected sex atleast four times a day, join a frat, become addicted to coke, heroin, and ecstasy. good look getting him out of the clubs and the puddle of vomit he'll be sleeping in to go train.

I look for him to redshirt XC has he is going to train for the world jr tri championships, then take a break.

Lannana is pretty famous for running the piss out of his kids and they do run well. However, few continue to succeed after college.

It will be interesting to see what happens if he focuses only on running. His running volume will likely increase. He may actually get worse without the cross training. I'm betting on injury his first year (but certainly not hoping for it).

German was always injury prone. He put together 1 great HS year and has had 1 great college year. LV seems less injury prone, but cross training may be helping that.

For goodness sakes, he was close to Bernard Lagat in a 2 mile this year. You're underestimating him.

jojo the laymonkey wrote:

I would expect only small improvements. He had excellent coaches throughout high school (his parents) so he is very well-trained. He might run under 3:40, top 20 in XC, under 7:50 in the 3000, and under 13:40 or so in the 5K. That would be an excellent start to his college career. His best chance to win or place in an event is probably the indoor 3000 at this point, I think the 5K is going to take a little time.

I'd say this is pretty accurate. Rupp did also run 13:37 as a senior in HS and LV probably could not run that fast, probably only 13:45-50. Anyway, LV has much better speed, (3:59/8:29) which means the 3k is probably a perfect distance for him (as a freshman) to compete with the best the NCAA has to offer.

Lucas will come off a win at the World Jr Tri Championships, get a late start on XC and finish strong somewhere between 5th and 10th at NCAAs. Then he will get injured and have to red shirt his freshman track season.

Use Jordan Hasay as a model - she had an ok freshman year but nothing spectacular - I bet Vin will emphasize building a base over specific race goals.

In other words, they'll start getting his mileage up and try to keep him injury free rather than hammer him.

So I'd say 13:40 in track and 10th in XC - not a huge improvement.

He's been coached by his mom all this time. I think the new system will cause him to plateau before he begins to improve. Either that or he gets injured during xc, drops out, and goes pro under his mama's coaching.

Highpoxia wrote:

8:29 = 13:30 (and 3:57), and LV hasn't run in Europe yet. He's a cut above.

Exactly, people seem to be caught up in his indoor 5k pr which is a joke. LV is in 13:35ish shape most likely right now if not a tad faster. He also went 3:59 in subpar conditions winning. I would not be shocked to see him go several seconds faster in the mile this year (if he wanted to). His own all out race was his 2mile, and that was ONE attempt. Who knows what he'd run in these events with several attempt and real competition each time.

illinoisphotographer wrote:

Another thing I forgot. LV doesn't really know how to race (yet). He's been head and shoulders above his competition since he was a freshman. He may have lost a few races here and there, but in general he has dominated.

Races at the HS level rarely are tactical. Knowing the IL track state meets, guys either run PRs or near PRs during both prelims and finals (except those who can make it through prelims in the distance races by the win.) You don't see the mile at State or NBN/NON whatever its called go out in 67/2:15 for the lead pack and have guys run 1:54 the last 800, yet that becomes common at championship races in college.

Actually he's an amazing racer. His triathlete days and his racing pros this year have made him so. If you remember he beat Leo Manzano in a indoor mile, and almost beat And Baddeley in the road mile.

I think he will redshirt cross country, if not then he will be top ten, won't be surprised with a top 5. In track I think he will go 3:39, 13:22, 27:58.

I don't care as much what he runs as a freshman as much as what he runs as a senior. Let him adapt to the coaching and environment change.

If he stays at the same level is freshman year (what I don't think will happen) he'll be hammered like Fernandez has lately.

I think he would have a hell of a freshan year getting top 10 at NCAA cross and running 3:40 and 13:32. On this board that would be a total failure even though it would be one of the very best freshman years of all time.

He might be ready for 28:30 right now in the 10,000. So what. Paitence. I don't to see him turn into a head case like Webb based on his all-time dominating high school times.

Yeah, I mean 10 years running 20-35 miles a week is overkill in my book. And the fact that he had to bump his mileage to 50 per week to run 8:29 is just appalling.

MARK IT:

7th-15th XC

3:39 1500m

7:49 indoor 3k

13:29 5k

Runs at Olympic trials but is just to young to matter over the last mile