Could a fit Alan Webb break 3000M WR?

The Saint wrote:

Actually, 3:29 for 1500m is about equal to a 3:46 mile.

Wrong. According to the IAAF charts, 3:29 low is equivalent to 3:45 low. Webb has a 3:46 high. Four years ago.

Lagat for the 3000 WR makes more sense than Webb, but truthfully either make any sense at all.

As I said earlier, Webb will never run another AR, let alone a WR. Maybe Kartelite disagrees.

Ventolin, isn't your calculator designed for horse races? Why to you always trot it out here?

It has proven wrong so, so, so often. (In fact, has it ever worked?)

Unworldly troll wrote:

9/10

Yes, and it's somehow lasted 2.5 pages.

CAQLa wrote:

El Guerrouj 7:23.09

Saidi Seif 7:25.02

Gebrselassie 7:25.09

Morceli 7:25.11

An honor roll of near misses.

Komen's time is obviously very difficult to achieve.

I still remember watching Said Aouita set the 3000 WR - I think back in 89 and I think it was the first sub 7:30. It was on TBS Olympic Gold and they showed the last couple of laps. His eyes were practically rolling up into his head he was working so hard down the final stretch. It was very inspiring and he's still one of my favorite runners ever.

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

The Saint wrote:

Actually, 3:29 for 1500m is about equal to a 3:46 mile.

Wrong. According to the IAAF charts, 3:29 low is equivalent to 3:45 low. Webb has a 3:46 high. Four years ago.

Lagat for the 3000 WR makes more sense than Webb, but truthfully either make any sense at all.

As I said earlier, Webb will never run another AR, let alone a WR. Maybe Kartelite disagrees.

Did you even look at the IAAF charts? It give's Lagat's 3:29.30 as 3:45.90, how do you call that 3:45 low? The 1.08 has been used as a standard conversion factor for a good 40 years and is pretty well received, which gives 3:46.04. So both of these suggest Webb has probably been within a second's reach of the record, and I don't think it's absurd to think that at his fittest he has the potential to get it - how many people have run that fast without a ton of pace help or people to push him on a tiny track in rural Belgium?

Plus, he's run a 1500m just 1.24s off the record (a race he won).

the smartest letsrunner wrote:Ventolin, isn't your calculator designed for horse races? Why to you always trot it out here?

as far as i can see from trying it, horses don't run any different from humans apart from being quicker

It has proven wrong so, so, so often. (In fact, has it ever worked?)

like when ?

please enlighten me or alternatively post some feedback to their site

as far as 3k goes, here are some for a 3'29 - 3'30 / 12'39 - 12'40 guy :

3'30/12'40 ->7'20.73

3'30/12'39 ->7'20.38

3'29/12'40 ->7'19.88

3'29/12'39 ->7'19.53

ring a bell ??

or a 3'29 - 3'30 / 12'50 guy :

3'30.0/12'50 ->4'46.69 , 7'24.18

3'29.5/12'50 ->4'46.18 , 7'23.76

3'29.0/12'50 ->4'45.68 , 7'23.33

ring any other bells ??

After seeing this ventolin I am a bit surprised El G never got closer to 7:20, especially if you assume he was capable of a 12:40 low?

we don't know about his 5k potential in '99 when he ran that 7'23 ( he ran his 12'50 in '03, when he was more interested in the 5k )

it's possible in '99 off primarily 1500 training he coudn't crack 12'50 at the time

also in that 7'23, he ran 1st km in 2'28, which was a bit slow ( 7'24 pace ) & then kicked in a suicidal 2'25 which killed him for the last km ( testimony to his quality was he only really showed his fatigue in last lap or so )

probably shouda gone about 7'21 that day if he'd paced it properly

interestingly, if we offer him 3'26.0 / 12'50 - 12'55 in '99 :

3'26.0 / 12'55.0 ->7'22.6

3'26.0 / 12'52.5 ->7'21.7

3'26.0 / 12'50.0 ->7'20.8

last 2 lines look about what that 7'23.0 race looked like if he'd run it sensibly

Like I said, the record is not untouchable; you need to be in 'both' about 3:29x and 12:45 at the same time. Since the 90s; there have not been any true 1500/5000 types; it has been either 800/1500 or 5k/10k types. Komen was perfectly suited or the 3k.

Everyone saying Webb's mile AR converts to only slightly slower than Lagat's 1500 AR, is missing the major point. Lagat ran 3:26 (second fastest all time) before he became an American citizen. Webb has never even been close to what Lagat was in his prime.

Lagat's PRs are a full 4 seconds faster than Webb at 1500m and a full 15 seconds faster than Webb at 5k. El Guerrouj's PRs are a full 4 seconds faster at 1500m and almost 20 seconds faster at 5k. Morceli was 3 seconds faster over 1500m and almost 7 seconds faster at 5k. Komen is only a second faster than Webb over 1500m, but is over 30 seconds faster at 5k. Webb would still have half a lap to go!

What has given any of you knuckleheads any indication that Webb is suddenly going to make this huge jump in performance?

Ventolin, it isn't my job to prove that your horsie calculator DOESN'T work, it's your job to prove that it DOES.

Please give me one example where horsecalc.co.uk PROSPECTIVELY predicted times correctly.

kartelite wrote:

The 1.08 has been used as a standard conversion factor for a good 40 years and is pretty well received, which gives 3:46.04. So both of these suggest Webb has probably been within a second's reach of the record, and I don't think it's absurd to think that at his fittest he has the potential to get it - how many people have run that fast without a ton of pace help or people to push him on a tiny track in rural Belgium?

Plus, he's run a 1500m just 1.24s off the record (a race he won).

You are just unbelievable. You are saying that, because Webb was "only" 1-2 seconds off of Lagat's AR (which is 3 seconds off of Lagat's PR), Webb has a shot at a 3000 time that Lagat himself is miles off of?

At has fittest, he HAD the potential for the 1500 AR. Maybe. He's in his late twenties and hasn't run a PR for four years. He's not going to run a quicker mile. Lagat > Webb in 1500. Lagat >> Webb in 5000. Lagat >>> Webb in 3000.

New coach, lighter racing weight, better form, consistent training through consistent health maybe? That and he's a phenomenal talent.

He already has... the womens

I think everyone is hoping he'll pull a Carlos Lopes.

I don't think you realize the level of aerobic endurance that is necessary to run back to back 2 back to back 1500's in 3:40.

Watch the video of Komen doing it on youtube. It's truly breathtaking.

Webb is an amazing runner and I think he'll be back to sub 3:50 miles here in a year or two.

Jason

I watched Haile try at Boston Indoor Games in 2003 he failed - Webb aint doing it boys !

f-stain on the sheet wrote:

Also, Webb's 27:34 is nothing. Komen could have run 27:34 enroute to a 15k.

No, you knucklehead. I was responding to this statement:

Which it appears you now agree with me with:

Maybe you should learn to read before getting your panties in a bunch. And stop contradicting yourself. And take a Zoloft.

casual commentary wrote:

New coach, lighter racing weight, better form, consistent training through consistent health maybe? That and he's a phenomenal talent.

I hate to break it to you, but even if Webb does make it back from his achilles injury, he is already 28 years old. When they ran their best times, Komen was only 20-21, El Guerroj was 24-25, Lagat was 25-26. More likely than not, Webb's fastest years are already behind him.