In his prime years as a middle distance athlete, and based on the following assumptions:
a. Very successful WC and OG to gain base and confidence
b. Lower's his 1500 PB to 3:28 and his 5000 PB to sub-13:00
c. Stays healthy
d. Gets ideal conditions with good pacing
e. Is obviously very fit after OG, during 2013 season
Is Alan one of the only possible candidates to break Komen's 7:20 WR?
wheating
Perhaps, but without a posted and respectable 5K time it's hard to tell if he has the stamina and strength? We know this about Webb with his 27:34 10K...
Webb isn't in the same zip code, or even the same solar system, as those who are potential 3000 WR holders.
3000 AR... that's a different story. A very good candidate for that record.
hicham couldnt do it and he ran 3:26 and 12:51...and he could have run much faster than 12"51
Hicham's pacing was horrible, otherwise he would have been right on it. Alan Webb could come close (I don't think he could get it) but it would mean running closer to 12:45 than 12:55. Komen was sub 12:40.
a. El G was very successful at WC and OG
b. El G's PR's were 3:26.00 and 13:50.24
c. El G was healthy for 8 years straight
d. El G had good conditions and ideal pacing while attempting the 3000 WR
e. El couldn't couldn't do it
Webb is 4 s slower at 1500, 20 s slower at 5000.
No WC or OG medals
Conclussion - yes, Webb could easily get the record if he really wanted it
You're correct except for d.
or in the same galaxy. Webb could go 7.18
Wait, why couldn't he? I'm confused -- I thought you didn't believe the whole genetic talent thing..
I thought he'd already run 13:10 for 5k?
Perhaps, but without a posted and respectable 5K time it's hard to tell if he has the stamina and strength? We know this about Webb with his 27:34 10K...
El Guerrouj 7:23.09
Saidi Seif 7:25.02
Gebrselassie 7:25.09
Morceli 7:25.11
An honor roll of near misses.
Komen's time is obviously very difficult to achieve.
Hah, near misses... I don't think some people realize just how staggering that record is, or just how much 3-5 seconds is when you're down to that level.
Komen's record is in another -world-. Where he got the ability to just drop the world record by 5 seconds, who knows...
I would say at least 15 athletes at the moment could beat Webb in a 3000 race(all of the Major American 5000-10000 meter runners and basically all the nameable Africans on the current 1500-10,000 circuit). To say that Webb could beat a record like the 3000m record is completely absurd.
I doubt he could even beat the American record. Kenneisa Bekele couldn't even break 7:25 in his prime, what makes you think Webb can? He's well past his prime now, and what makes you think all of the following you have said above wouldn't apply to at least one of the current athletes that is better than him? If anyone has a chance, it's probably Tariku Bekele who is still very young and shown success at the 3000 distance or his brother, Kenneisa Bekele, for obvious reasons.
But hey, if he actually breaks the 3000 record I would be amazed. It's certainly possible, but it's also possible that the athletes currently much better than him could beat him to it. It's certainly a tough record.
I suspect this is a troll thread because it is a ridiculous proposition. Webb is not in that class of runners.
Komen ran faster than Webb in the 1500 and the 5000 (3:29 to 3:30, and 12:39 to 13:10), and the 3000 WR was one of Komen's best races, well paced and run at Rieti, i.e. World Record Central. Besides El G, Haile Gebrselassie ran 7:25, and he was a 12:39 guy just like Komen, and close to as good a miler as Webb and Komen (3:31 indoors). Geb ran the 3000 and the 2 mile quite a bit in 1996-98 and could never quite match Komen (remember Komen ran 7:24 indoors to Geb's 7:26, and Komen ran sub 8 twice in the two mile to several 8:01's for Geb). Komen is really far and away the GOAT of the deuce.
Maybe Webb has some untapped reserve of potential in him, but we haven't seen anything from him yet to indicate that sort of ability.
No. And I'm not among those who thinks that the 3000 record is any more 'unworldly' than the other distance records right now.
A more interesting question is whether Lagat was capable of it. I'd say probably not, but it's not clear to me that Komen was that much better than Lagat at his best. It's just that during Lagat's best years he focused primarily on the 1500.
I also think that ElG is the guy who was most capable of taking that record down. I view both his 1500 and, especially, his 2k record as superior to the Komen's 3k.
A lot goes in to setting a WR, including luck. ElG was not lucky in the ways he needed to be to set that record.
oko wrote:
I would say at least 15 athletes at the moment could beat Webb in a 3000 race(all of the Major American 5000-10000 meter runners and basically
Thisi would find hard to believe. I bet that over 3k the only major american at 5k-10k that could beat webb nine time out of ten is lagat. I'd give him at least even odds against the likes of Teg, Solinsky, Ritz, Rupp, etc.
[quote]Link wrote:
No. And I'm not among those who thinks that the 3000 record is any more 'unworldly' than the other distance records right now.
It's unworldly. And anyone who thinks for one second that Webb even approaches that record isn't thinking with his/her brain. Komen has a faster 1500 pr than Webb, was likely doping, and is Kenyan.
Also, Webb's 27:34 is nothing. Komen could have run 27:34 enroute to a 15k.