His true PR may be close to or under 3hrs (or maybe just mid 3hrs) but his mistake was he tried to string together lots of sub3hr marathons within a very short time period. Added pressure being from trying to go on a 50state spree. Probably didn't realize that when you do this, you're not going to run even close to your PB each time.
Probably Missoula was his most impressive performance has it been legit (for one, it yields the highest VDOT yield on a Jack Daniels scale), because it was a 2:49 finish plus it was at 3100ft altitude, which is like a 2:44 at sea level, plus Kip's not really spending time at altitude I don't think.
Actually at New Mexico marathon in Albuquerque (approx 5000ft altitude) Kip came across in the 2:50s for 2nd overall, which is another performance of his that has got to convert to something 2:40s at sea level -maybe like another mid to low 240s. Crazy because that pace at sea level would be pretty close to his 5k pace I'm guessing. There was an earlier post that the 4th or 5th place finisher swears one of the top finishers cheated at NewMexico marathon, but I think it was in one of the threads that was deleted last year (2010).