I personally enjoy threads on GF and CD. I was at Stanford last year as a grad student and had many opportunities to watch Chris in workouts and races. He's a classy, intelligent, self-aware runner who is a monster when the time comes. He has consistently improved over the past few years, from a freshman phenom into one of the NCAA's best and possibly one of the US's best. I cheer for him and his teammates whenever they toe the line.
That said, whether you're banking on him or not, German inspires awe. Here is a kid who ran some mind-boggling races as a freshman, and only really stepped to the line healthy one time as a sophmore. And yet here were are debating whether this kid can take down guys like Derrick, McNeil, and Chelanga. Just like those fighters who can drop an opponent with one shot, German is the type of runner who you have to be aware of, because at any moment he might show up and drop the hammer on those runners who have been dominant all year.
As far as Monday goes, I would expect to see Derrick rolling along with Riley and Heath in the top 10-12, with the trio making a move in the final 3K to place in the top 10. I don't think Derrick is going to make a solo move this year like he did last, and even if he did, I don't know if he'll be able to gap his teammates--so it may not look like the solo move many hope to see. I suspect that German and Colby will run together in that same area(behind Macheso, top 10-12), and their move may come at about the same point. And that fact is, that aside from Chelanga and McNeil, German might very well be the best of the rest.
I agree that German seems different in his interviews this season, but I think he's being cautious regarding his optimism--wouldn't you with those previous performances at Nationals?
When the dust settles, I expect the top 10 to have 2-3 Cardinal jerseys and 2-3 bright orange jerseys. How they line up is why we're all going to be watching so intently...