2:30-35 Marathon Indicator Training/Workouts

Given your training and pace, I'd say you have very little shot at 2:30-2:35. Maybe 2:40 if you can pull of a 10 mile tempo run at 5:40 pace. 2:37-2:38 is right around 6 flat pace. Not sure if you said how many long runs you've done... if you've only done one 20 miler, then you're in for some hurt that last 10k.

One month to go? I'd try to get away with a 10 day taper or so. Squeeze in however many 20-22 milers you can- you should be able to do at least 2 of them. Try to run 3 days per week (including a good portion of your long run- maybe 10 miles) at goal marathon race pace. That might mean 2 of your 8-10 mile tempo runs at 5:40 pace, and your long run (with 10-12 miles at race pace) up until your 10 day taper period. No point in trying to do shorter, faster stuff at this point... I think the longer, aerobic work will give you more bang for your buck. Good luck.

Workouts or Training won't tell you much. If you ran a 10k under 34 or a HM under 1:14 then you may have a shot.

You might have a shot. My advice would be this, assuming you have a month to play with (NOT including a 10-14 day taper). First, realize that "2:30-2:35" is a pretty huge range. I'd say you have a good shot at 2:35, but not a snowball's chance in hell of hitting 2:30. This time anyway. If you trained it sounds like sub 2:30 would be a legit goal. But it's like saying, "I want to run a 5k somewhere between 14:57 and 15:30." If you go out the first half of the race shooting for the low end of that range, and you're not ready for it, you're in for a world of hurt. Especially in a marathon.

Over the next month, do a couple more long runs, preferably with some faster running tacked on the end. Other than that, a couple 10 mile tempos at 5:50 pace, or try some other workouts like 3x4 mile at marathon pace, do 1 mile recovery in between and try to keep that mile only 20-30 seconds slower. Run really slowly between workouts, as your body is going to be hurting since your mileage has been so low.

If I were you I'd shoot for even 6 minute pace on race day. It's easy to keep track of, and I think it'll give you a better shot of having a positive experience in your first marathon.

Not to burst your bubble, but that sounds a lot like my training for my first marathon. Or a little slower. I am guessing a 2:40. I would shoot for 6min pace(2:37), but realize the last 5miles will be tough.

I think to get lower 2:30, you needed more tempo and long intervals. Striders just work on foot speed, but not endurance or threshold training.

Really do agree with mostly what everyone is saying. I think being able to run 10 miles at 5:40 pace for a workout isn't really equivalent to a 2:40 marathon, but again I haven't run a marathon so I have nothing to compare to.

Regardless, I did a low 73 minute half marathon in early September of last year. Two weeks prior to that race I also ran an 8k but on a bone flat course at 26:45 and with some fartlek, striders, tempo work mixed in the month prior. The 8k I ran the other day was on a course with two pretty killer hills and rolling hills throughout at least half of the course as well. My training is probably also about 10-15mpw higher this summer than last. My mileage is now similar but I've also cut out one day of running per week right now.

All that being said, I'd like to at least consider I'm in at least a little bit better shape now than I was this time last year-- at least for longer races. Had I done some basic hill, fartlek, and maybe one to two workouts I think my 8k last weekend would have been substantially faster.

I realize I'm not going to come anywhere close to 2:30 this time around, and that was a large range I put out there. I guess I was more curious on what those that have run times in that range were doing for training or "key" workouts that led you to feel prepared to run the time that you did. Then as a followup was interested in if what I was doing had any shot at amounting to something credible or useful to reach those key workouts before the marathon comes around.

Really I'd be ecstatic over 2:33 but at this point figure I'll be somewhere in the 2:34-8 range on a good day IF I get my head in gear this month. Just wanted to see if there was any other insight on some critical things I can do between now and then.

I'm a little fearful of changing my mileage too much as I only do singles and 6 runs per week so I'm afraid any sort of major increases may offset on how tired my legs will be 30 days from now due to that increase (ran one 80 mile week ever before, this seems to be a little late in the game to start going steady at that). Just your average joe runner who is not doing anything special or living in nice running country, basically all of my runs are done in commercial areas which plays a factor in paces sometimes too.

Not trying to sound lame and full of excuses, trying to just see if anyone that kind of fits a similar bill that could assist on common ground. Appreciate all the feedback thus far.

Have you tried running a workout like this:

Run 10 miles at a Moderate pace (let's say about 1:30-1:15 per mile over your current 5km pace) and then (immediately) run 10 miles flat-out or close to it? For some runners this sort of a workout tends to be a good predictor of marathon racing fitness. Note, I recommend performing this workout 4-5 weeks prior to your marathon race.

Tinman wrote:

Have you tried running a workout like this:

Run 10 miles at a Moderate pace (let's say about 1:30-1:15 per mile over your current 5km pace) and then (immediately) run 10 miles flat-out or close to it? For some runners this sort of a workout tends to be a good predictor of marathon racing fitness. Note, I recommend performing this workout 4-5 weeks prior to your marathon race.

Tinman, that's a half-ass post if I've ever read one: complete your thought. Is the all-out 10 mile portion supposed to be your goal marathon race pace? How do you interpret that workout?

As for "unsure"- you said your tempo runs were 5:40-6 min pace. That's a big variation. If you were in fact running 8-10 milers at 5:40 pace (not 5:50s or 6), then yes perhaps you are ready to run sub 6 pace for the marathon. However, a 10 miler or half marathon is nowhere near the same beast, particularly if you've only done one quality long run. You will be learning this the hard way firsthand. I will stand by my assertion: if you can handle 5:40 for a 10 miler and still feel like it was under control, then I'd say you're ready for around 2:37.

I think most of these people are way overestimating what it takes to run 2:35. I ran 2:36 with a two minutes negative split and was not doing anywhere as much training as you have been. If you have a good amount of lifetime miles on your legs and you squeeze in a one or two more long runs, 2:34-5 is completely reasonable. My longest runs where a hilly 18 a month out and a flat 16 two weeks out. And about 30-35 a week and no workouts, just running hard when I felt like it.

I've run 2:37, and your times look very similar to mine but your mileage is significantly lower. 8-10 miles at 5:40-6:00 was always pretty good for me.

I think you're probably faster than I was and more talented, but not quite as strong. So you'll be able to run significantly faster than me eventually, but maybe not this time. I'd guess slower than 2:35, but faster than 2:45.

I'm also concerned about what "getting serious the last month" means. One month isn't really enough time to gain a lot of fitness, especially if part of that month involves tapering. Don't go crazy, it's easy to do more harm than good.

It's not that hard wrote:

I think most of these people are way overestimating what it takes to run 2:35. I ran 2:36 with a two minutes negative split and was not doing anywhere as much training as you have been. If you have a good amount of lifetime miles on your legs and you squeeze in a one or two more long runs, 2:34-5 is completely reasonable. My longest runs where a hilly 18 a month out and a flat 16 two weeks out. And about 30-35 a week and no workouts, just running hard when I felt like it.

And what were your PRs like at the shorter distances. If you did indeed run a 2:36 off of an 18 and a 16 miler and 35 mpw, then I'm betting you have some legitimate talent (or should I say you most likely squandered some legitimate talent).

I'll say you have very little chance of running 2:30 your first marathon, as that would be close to your half marathon time, and your training is totally not geared to a marathon.

good

I'm presuming you mean sprints - therefore, not good

good - what HAVE you been doing?

ok - at least you got rid of the sprints

very good

that is fine - kind of a stretch from the other things you've been doing - you need to do more like these, for example 17-18 milers and work it them, rather than one big shot now and then

ok - you don't need a race to do this - how about running 13 at MP in the morning, then running a 4 mile faster in the afternoon, once a week, this could be your midweek session

not good

probably because the sprints were depleting/changing your muscles, not suitable for training for a marathon

doesn't matter at this point, move forward from here

good

you definitily have the ability, and it's a longshot possibility but not likely -- more likely is that you'll have the experience and learn better how to prepare for subsequent marathons

I see no point to that. A marathon is a hard steady pace all the way, not a few sprints and surges here and there.

run 21 miles in 2 hours

you're welcome

Tapering is over rated, 7 days is all you need. Also 22 miles is not enough of a long run, try 26. Stop reading the books, go out & feel your training for yourself.

"All the resources we need are in the mind."

-TR

What were you feeling so horrible about?

intuition wrote:

Tapering is over rated, 7 days is all you need. Also 22 miles is not enough of a long run, try 26. Stop reading the books, go out & feel your training for yourself.

"All the resources we need are in the mind."

-TR

Your advice about intuition makes sense to a certain degree (yes, every runner is different and needs to figure out what works best for him/her), but the OP is asking for guidance in his final month of training, not training in general. If he has only done one long run of 20, then jacking it up to 26 while still trying to do a couple of quality tempo runs per week is risky. Most posters have been responding with suggestions that consider the amount of time he has left and what he has done so far (ie maximizing gain in a very short period of time).

22 miles is not enough of a long run? I ran much faster than this guy hopes to in my first marathon with only one run of 20 miles and ~8 16-18 milers. I think you can be fairly successful with 1:45 to 2 hour long runs and a solid weekly mileage. I do agree that tapering can be overemphasized, though I suppose it depends on the runner.

Francis L wrote:

Given your training and pace, I'd say you have very little shot at 2:30-2:35.

Is this the REAL Francie Larrieu-Smith?!

go francie wrote:

Francis L wrote:

Given your training and pace, I'd say you have very little shot at 2:30-2:35.

Is this the REAL Francie Larrieu-Smith?!

Based on the advice given I'd say definitely not.

My first marathon I was aiming for sub-2:30 as well...I ended up running 2:34:51. But I was smart about the race, I didn't just "go for it" from the gun, I settled into a pace I thought I could handle, and it happened to be 5:50-5:55. The 10-12 weeks prior to my first one, I was averaging 80-85 mpw and only doing maybe 1 workout per week. I did two 10 mile tempos (first one at 5:45 pace, second at 5:40...both felt the same effort), and ~6 runs of 20 miles or longer. Only had one tune up race prior to the marathon, and it was a 5k (15:54).

I don't really believe in indicator workouts, because if you coin the term "indicator" into the workout, you're likely to you way faster than you should and get a false sense that you're ready for "x" pace for the marathon. A better indicator would be to go out and race a half-marathon about 4-6 weeks before the marathon. That would give you a better judgement on where you stand.

My gut-feeling is that you're more of a 2:35-2:40 guy right now, depending on where your endurance is. If I were you, I'd probably try and hold 6:00 miles for as long as possible, no matter how strong you are, those last 4 miles of the marathon are gonna hurt. If you can have a positive split of 1:00 or less, I'd say you ran a great marathon.

I still haven't run sub-2:30, but I just ran 2:31:05 last weekend...and that's probably more due to a year's worth of high mileage than "indicator workouts".

Damn LetsRun, and lack of editing...

In the second paragraph, I meant to say "you're likely to run way faster"