A few days ago I did 5 x 1K in 3:45-3:48 with 45 second jog recoveries as a specific endurance workout in prep for a 5K a week from now. Then, two days ago I did a 10K TT on the treadmill set at 1% grade at about 96% effort in 41:15.
Based on these two workouts does an 18:59 (or better) 5K sound reasonable?
Sub 18:30 for sure.
Great 5x1000 workout -- I think it shows that you are definitely read for the full 5k at that pace. Now rest properly as the race approaches. I get the sense that you're going to try to cram in some other test in the next few days, and I hope I'm wrong.
As for the treadmill timetrial: why? Doing it on an uncalibrated treadmill with 1% etc makes it very difficult to read much into the result. Internally, does that show improvement from similar workouts leading into your old 5k PR? And what was that, btw?
Don't get me wrong - I am not an anti-treadmill lunatic. I just don't think we can extrapolate to much from times done on one.
The 10K TT on the treadmill is just a fitness indicator I do occasionally since it is easily repeatable without having to wonder if the performance was affected by temperature, wind, etc...
As for the next week before the race, I intend to do a couple short sessions of 200 & 400 repeats in between some easy runs. Otherwise, lots of rest...
Yeah I would have to say DEFINITELY sub-19