Rupp vs Solinsky Friday

It should be interesting to see how choge runs. when was the last time he ran a 5k? and he seems to be in pretty solid shape after running 3:30(?) a few weeks ago.

Merga is definitely closer to a 1st-3rd guy than a 3rd-6th guy. And at Brussels last year, he was looking as strong or stronger than Bekele with 800m-1000m to go, but he and Ali Abdosh were obviously focused on securing the win (and Golden League jackpot share) for Bekele. I'm not certain he could have won the race, but I think second place was very much the goal, rather than the win.

barcelona wrote:

Looking at your own stats Merga finished between 1st and 3rd NINE out of 13 times. So the MAJORITY of the time he wasn't a 3rd-6th finisher, but a 1st-3rd finisher. See for yourself:

13:05.20 3 Doha 14 May 2010

12:53.81 1 Oslo 4 Jun 2010

13:00.12 1 Roma 10 Jun 2010

13:00.18 3 Eugene OR 3 Jul 2010

13:00.48 3 Gateshead 10 Jul 2010

12:55.66 2 Bruxelles 4 Sep 2009

13:29.75 1 WAF Thessalon�ki 13 Sep 2009

13:24.29 1 Takac Beograd 29 May 2008

13:19.63 3 Milano 25 Jun 2009

So saying he is a consistent "3rd-6th place finisher" is really a gross misreading of your own stats.

..... a consistent 3rd-6th place fnisher? Check your eyes.

This is exactly what jumped out at me within 5 seconds of reading Malmo's post. I was getting ready to post the same thing, but then I saw barcelona's post.

malmo wrote:

Overall he is a consistent 3-6 place finisher. Those are the facts.

I'm sorry the facts don't line up with your fantasies.

That's just a flat-out a misrepresentation of your own stats, period, end of story, no debating the point whatsoever. The last three years he is a consistent TOP 3 finisher, which is a BIG difference from what you wrote. And this is surprising (not because you aren't wrong about lots of things), but because you are normally good with numbers.

So c'mon malmo, here's your big chance to do something 99.9% of letsrunners (and maybe humanity?) have ever seen you do: type or utter this simple three word phrase: "I....WAS.....WRONG."

So is this the big day (to hear you admit a mistake) ??

malmo wrote:

Overall he is a consistent 3-6 place finisher. Those are the facts.

I'm sorry the facts don't line up with your fantasies.

Malmo got owned by the very stats he provided! I never thought I would see that.

I think we all agree that Merga isn't head and shoulders above the competition at 5k, but he's a contender for the win (aka consistent top 3 finisher, NOT 3 to 6) when he lines up.

Lets get back to Rupp and Solinski. I say Rupp over Solinski by twoseconds in about 6th place and a 13:low although I'd like to see him sub 13 I just don't see that happening. Solinski had a great season but 4 months is a long time to hold onto 26:59 shape.

barcelona wrote:

Looking at your own stats Merga finished between 1st and 3rd NINE out of 13 times. So the MAJORITY of the time he wasn't a 3rd-6th finisher, but a 1st-3rd finisher. See for yourself:

13:05.20 3 Doha 14 May 2010

12:53.81 1 Oslo 4 Jun 2010

13:00.12 1 Roma 10 Jun 2010

13:00.18 3 Eugene OR 3 Jul 2010

13:00.48 3 Gateshead 10 Jul 2010

12:55.66 2 Bruxelles 4 Sep 2009

13:29.75 1 WAF Thessalon�ki 13 Sep 2009

13:24.29 1 Takac Beograd 29 May 2008

13:19.63 3 Milano 25 Jun 2009

So saying he is a consistent "3rd-6th place finisher" is really a gross misreading of your own stats.

.

If it is a misreading of stats then why did you chose to delete some of the stats to make a point? I can play your childish game to.

This:

13:05.20 3 Doha 14 May 2010

12:53.81 1 Oslo 4 Jun 2010

13:00.12 1 Roma 10 Jun 2010

13:00.18 3 Eugene OR 3 Jul 2010

13:00.48 3 Gateshead 10 Jul 2010

13:41.98 5 African champs 2010

13:04.68 4 New York NY 30 May 2009

12:59.75 6 Roma 10 Jul 2009

12:55.66 2 Bruxelles 4 Sep 2009

13:29.75 1 WAF Thessalon�ki 13 Sep 2009

13:24.29 1 Takac Beograd 29 May 2008

13:08.20 5 Ostrava 12 Jun 2008

13:19.63 3 Milano 25 Jun 2009

13:49.17 16 GGala Roma 11 Jul 2008

Now becomes this:

13:05.20 3 Doha 14 May 2010

13:00.18 3 Eugene OR 3 Jul 2010

13:00.48 3 Gateshead 10 Jul 2010

13:41.98 5 African champs 2010

13:04.68 4 New York NY 30 May 2009

12:59.75 6 Roma 10 Jul 2009

13:08.20 5 Ostrava 12 Jun 2008

13:19.63 3 Milano 25 Jun 2009

13:49.17 16 GGala Roma 11 Jul 2008

Nine of his 14 races at 5000 are in the 3rd-16th range. Which nearly matches my off-the-cuff comment “Merga is a consistent 3rd - 5th place finisher and he's "the master"?

Merga’s record in championship races? Consistently 3rd – 7th (what else?)

2009 World Champs 10000 27:15.94 4th.

2010 African Championships 5000 13:41.98 5th

Even as a Junior the theme remains the same:

2007 African Junior Champs 10000 3rd 30:12.03

2007 World Junior XC champs 7th

My point remains the same. Merga is an outstanding runner capable of stealing a win when the opportunity is right, but, as I stated on my first post, he is not “the master”. Far from it. He has only four career wins at 5k, one of them in Serbia in 2008, and the other, the 2009 World Athletics Final, which has always been an afterthought on the tour.

The facts are there in black and white. Two wins does not make a “master”.

Malmo, the title of "master" is not what's being debated. Even the one guy who called him a "master" did it in an offhand way.

What we're strenuously objecting to is your "3rd-6th" characterization. You write Nine of his 14 races at 5000 are in the 3rd-16th range. That's technically correct. But also correct, and a much fairer characterization of his record, is the following statement: Nine of his 14 races at 5000 are in the 1st-3rd range.

Yes, he's got a lot of 3rd-place finishes. But he doesn't have many 4ths, 5ths, or 6ths at all. It just seems vindictive to downgrade his 3rd-place finishes by grouping them with 4th-6th.

bobby e. wrote:

Yes, he's got a lot of 3rd-place finishes. But he doesn't have many 4ths, 5ths, or 6ths at all. It just seems vindictive to downgrade his 3rd-place finishes by grouping them with 4th-6th.

Vindictive? Huh? You're projecting.

Childish game? I am working with your stats and your childish way of misinterpreting numbers. The guy has more top 3 finishes in YOUR OWN DATA THAT USE then 4th 5th or 6th places. Sorry you can't put 2 and 2 together.

Also, I can't imagine any knowledgeable track fan going back to 2008 for this sort of analysis, especially for a guy who broke out on the 5000m scene just a few years ago. The more recent races are better predictor if anything. But I guess you had to go back that far so you could actually claim he had race finishes under 3rd place right?

malmo wrote:

barcelona wrote:

Looking at your own stats Merga finished between 1st and 3rd NINE out of 13 times. So the MAJORITY of the time he wasn't a 3rd-6th finisher, but a 1st-3rd finisher. See for yourself:

13:05.20 3 Doha 14 May 2010

12:53.81 1 Oslo 4 Jun 2010

13:00.12 1 Roma 10 Jun 2010

13:00.18 3 Eugene OR 3 Jul 2010

13:00.48 3 Gateshead 10 Jul 2010

12:55.66 2 Bruxelles 4 Sep 2009

13:29.75 1 WAF Thessalon�ki 13 Sep 2009

13:24.29 1 Takac Beograd 29 May 2008

13:19.63 3 Milano 25 Jun 2009

So saying he is a consistent "3rd-6th place finisher" is really a gross misreading of your own stats.

.

If it is a misreading of stats then why did you chose to delete some of the stats to make a point? I can play your childish game to.

I didn't delete stats, I just showed the NINE out of your list to make it more clear they were the majority. This was pretty clear in my post. Please go back and reread if this is unclear to you.

Also, I am just playing "your game" if you can laser focus on places 3-6, why can't I focus on 1-3? You can't have it both ways.

barcelona wrote:e" if you can laser focus on places 3-6, why can't I focus on 1-3? You can't have it both ways.

I'm not "playing things both ways". I made a simple and accurate statement, and backed it up with facts, which seems to bother you greatly.

You can look at it however you want, but factoring in Merga's championship record and the fact that two of his wins are of much less stature than any of his 3-7th finishes, I think there's a clear pattern here.

So far this year, he has two early-season wins, three 3rds, and a 5th place finish. Perhaps three more 5000s to go this year. Whether or not he can steal another win in August, the thick part of the season, will be determined; but as of today, he's trending downwards.

barcelona wrote:

Also, I am just playing "your game" if you can laser focus on places 3-6, why can't I focus on 1-3? You can't have it both ways.

You're counting 3rd place finishes in both ranges. You and malmo are both right: he finished the majority of his races in 1-3 and in 3-6. This is one of the silliest arguments I've ever witnessed.

Keep it cool

What is undoubtfully clear from the stats is that Merga has been a solid 3rd finisher.

It is outstanding the number of times he finishes 3rd, and he finishes 1st-2nd the same number of times he finishes 4th-6th. Pretty funny stat.

Where can I find the live stream online? Will there be a link posted later today? It's at 5:30 Central time right?

Greg86z28 wrote:

Where can I find the live stream online? Will there be a link posted later today? It's at 5:30 Central time right?

The 5000 is at 2:38 Central.

Greg86z28 wrote:

Where can I find the live stream online? Will there be a link posted later today? It's at 5:30 Central time right?

I'd like to know this too.

I think Rupp and Solinksy will both go 12:58.xx today.

Malmo is obviously a Tariku or Chepkok fan out to wind up some Merga fans. Plain to see his 3-6th categorisation was way off the mark from a scan of the results provided. No need to even calculate "mean" or "median" position.

Solinksy for the win in 13:04. Huge last lap of 53 secs ala Buster's win over a stacked field in Ostrava back in '07.

That Ostrava 5000m win by Mottram is my 3rd favourite 5k of all time. See below and props to the German commentator so passionate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN_ygXH26Mw