WWRD... wrote:
I don't expect the weather to improve until September, so I'm stuck with some tough runs.
As for running paces by feel, I'm still a relatively inexperienced runner and struggle a bit with this so I'll likely use my GPS and back off pace.
Will having to run slower than goal pace have an adverse effect on my ability to hold the goal pace in the actual race?
The fact is, you (at least ostensibly) cannot run goal pace in this weather. Or not without going to the well much more than you should in training, anyway. So it is pointless to worry about how it will affect you. Try to approximate the effort.
Again, use the GPS if you must but aim for feel. Just aim for "comfortably hard" and let the pace fall whereever it does. Afterwards, look at the splits and see how even they were.
The advantage of not looking at the watch when you are running tempo/MP runs is that most runners - especially inexperienced ones - tend to overreact when the pace is not near the goal. Maybe you start off running much to slowly. You don't even realize you are doing it until you see the NEXT split. Then you overreact the other way and run the next mile much too fast. You end up bouncing all around the desired pace without actually hitting it too much. As a result you don't get much of a feel for ANY particular pace. Not even one that's too slow or fast.
Running without checking the splits keeps your effort more even. So you ended up being 10 seconds per mile too slow? Well that's not the goal but it's also no big deal. Next time you can try a little harder. But what you will likley find is your pace was much more consistent. So now you have a very good experience with one particular pace. You know what it feels like becuase you were close to it the whole way. So you should be better at making an adjustment next time.
The key for a new runner is to teach yourself how to hit the right level of effort without a watch. You need to be able to dial in your goal pace. Time values can provide good feedback but sometimes you need to NOT look at them every mile.