Will Lagat run 12:50 outdoors

12:50 to 12:56 is actually a a big range at that level as he would be definitely be topping out with each second below the American record.

One thing is for sure : if he runs anywhere near 12:50 (or below) you will be seeing a lagat that is finishing much more ragged than in doha and probably ill-equipped against Bekele's kick off that pace on an average day.

klibbericious wrote:

12:50 to 12:56 is actually a a big range at that level as he would be definitely be topping out with each second below the American record. .

Not really. Lagat is already a 12:45 runner who hasn't been in the right race. Everything is opportunity.

no 7.32 this year though.

malmo wrote:Not really. Lagat is already a 12:45 runner who hasn't been in the right race. Everything is opportunity.

That's a lot of faith Malmo !

In his 3'26 prime ( back in '01 ), he musta had 1'43-flat ability to run so fast & that woud have given him a hypothetical

~ 7'20.4 , 12'48.9

but those woud be off exclusive 1500 training & it is highly doubtful his "endurance" wouda extended "perfectly" to 5k at that time ( & possibly not 3k )

In '06 he couda run 12'50 ( in the race in which he beat Bekele ( I saw that one in the stadium & Bernie was absolutely awesome that race, looked like Man v Boy ), but I'm not sure about 12'45 !

ventplin^2 wrote:

In his 3'26 prime ( back in '01 ), he musta had 1'43-flat ability to run so fast & that woud have given him a hypothetical

~ 7'20.4 , 12'48.9

but those woud be off exclusive 1500 training & it is highly doubtful his "endurance" wouda extended "perfectly" to 5k at that time ( & possibly not 3k )

In '06 he couda run 12'50 ( in the race in which he beat Bekele ( I saw that one in the stadium & Bernie was absolutely awesome that race, looked like Man v Boy ), but I'm not sure about 12'45 !

I'm not sure about 1:43-flat!!! In fact that's nonsense. How is it hard to understand that Lagat was/is an athlete very relaxed at running 55/56-pace (in a 4-lapper) however 51-pace for him (albeit for only 2 laps) was out of his comfort zone? He could never have approached 1:43.....and I note the best estimate from his manager was that he could have run 1:44-high in the right race and where he judged his first lap right (ie about 51.5).....

I'm sure Lagat can run under 12:55 this year. It's interesting that for the first time he's talking of times. He says 12:50 but of course who knows if the race he runs will be like that......I'm sure he won't be disappointed with 12:52-54......

Well, if Lagat ever had 12:45 capability, and I would guess he probably had that kind of potential, as ElG certainly did, those days would appear to be behind him. Lagat will be 36 years old in December. He appears to have sipped from the fountain of youth, but I would guess his maximum this year would be about 12:53. Nobody in the world looks as if they'll dip much under 12:50 this year. Remember, even the great Kenenisa Bekele has only run faster than 12:48 twice in his life, trailing Daniel Komen and Geb, who each did it three times.

malmo wrote:

peter graves ate cinder block wrote:

He's an American for Chrissakes, Malmo. Turn off the Rockford Files, pull down your tube socks, and pay attention on a thread for once.

Yes he is. He is just as American as when he ran for Kenya in Athens 2004. Lagat kept Paul Korir off the Kenyan Olympic team. He kept Alan Webb out of the Olympic Semifinal. He kept Manuel Damiao out of an Olympic Final. He kept Timothy Kiptanui off of the medal stand and turned Rui Silva’s silver medal into bronze.

Hey Malmo, were you're ancestors given the same welcome when they came to America? I think Alan Webb kept himself out of the semi final. If you can run 3:46 & can't make a semi there must be something wrong with you

malmo wrote:

Not really. Lagat is already a 12:45 runner who hasn't been in the right race. Everything is opportunity.

I agree and after he runs one of the faster 5k's in history his name will be cemented at long last and the naysayers will need to shut up!!

So you would rather have seen Lagat Kipketered out the Olympics to allow lessor athletes to place higher than they should have.

I think they should have a Unified team every year for athletes that are transitioning from one citizenship to another.

I am very glad Lagat represented Kenya in 2004 instead of sitting on the sidelines because that was a great duel between him and El G.

Anyway I am very interested to see what Lagat does in a year like this where runners go after times without a championship to peak for.

toro wrote:

So you would rather have seen Lagat Kipketered out the Olympics to allow lessor athletes to place higher than they should have.

I am very glad Lagat represented Kenya in 2004 instead of sitting on the sidelines because that was a great duel between him and El G.

Thank you! That was one of the best Olympic races I've seen, and between two legends of the sport, and the two fastest men ever in the event! What a great final that was.

It was a damn shame Kipketer was kept out of international championships the way he was. And it would have been an equally damned shame if Lagat was held out.

I understand if someone just wants to jump ship to another country where it is easier to get into the Olympics or WCs sitting out a little while. But Lagat had been here since college. He lived here, trained here, owned a home here, got married here. He was effectively an American already, minus the passport and the official stamp. Cases like this should be reviewed by the iaaf individually so that athletes in this type of situation do not have to sit out competition. Someone selling their passport to Qatar or Bahrain while remaining in their home country on the other hand, well let them sit for a year or two.

And by the way, Lagat went back to Kenya to compete for that spot on the 2004 Olympic team, made it, and THEN was granted US citizenship. It actually came through much sooner than what he was told by US Immigration. His naturalization was not supposed to happen until after the Olympics were over.

Nobody has run under 12:50 in a couple of years. Hard to imagine Lagat being the world leader this year to me.

There is no doubt in my mind that he will run sub 13 but 1250 is FAST!! It is definitely not out of the question though. It is going to have to be a perfect race. My prediction is 1254-56 to be realistic.

The Stache wrote:

And by the way, Lagat went back to Kenya to compete for that spot on the 2004 Olympic team, made it, and THEN was granted US citizenship. It actually came through much sooner than what he was told by US Immigration. His naturalization was not supposed to happen until after the Olympics were over.

Lets be factual. Lagat was granted citizenship on May 7th, 2004. The Kenyan Olympic Trials were June 25-26th. He kept it a secret until March of 2005, after the completion of a very lucrative indoor campaign of 6 races.

DetroitTitans wrote:

There is no doubt in my mind that he will run sub 13 but 1250 is FAST!! It is definitely not out of the question though. It is going to have to be a perfect race. My prediction is 1254-56 to be realistic.

I think the above is correct. KB is much closer to his prime and I don't think he cracked 12:52 this year, in spite of rabbited races. Lagat could probably get the AR, but it'll be by tenths of a second at best. Even then, he better be running against KB and the like.

My mistake malmo. My opinion of the situation does not change, though.

no

you are talking drivel

1) hicham had alleged 1'42.7 TT - bernie was only 0.3s behind him over nearly double distance

2) noah ran mid-1'44 en-route to 2'11 - bernie ran nearly 2s faster than him over 1500

3) baala, an infinitely inferior guy to bernie, ran 1'43.1 in his secondary event & was nearly 3s slower than bernie in his primary event

err...

you do realise he ran 53+ in his 3'26 despite getting balked by hicham on the last curve ?!

you also obviously were watching in the stadium when bernie crushed kennster with a last lap of 51s & only kicked off the bend & took nearly 10m out of him in 100m ?!

drivel

see above

drivel

find that quote from '01 or '04

51.5 means 12m down from wabbit gunning thru in 50.0 - you expect him to give up 12m to guys like bugei/bucher/muladzi who tracked wabbit ???

as for his manager - i'm sure rudisha's & yego's managers knew they were 1'42-flat/high ( former a low-1'41 if he'd had a wabbit who didn't run off 10m ahead offering no 0.5s/200m drafting to the bell & no windy conditions ) guys prior to rieti

Bump