could bolt hold the 100, 200, 400 and 800 world records at the same time within the next 3 years?

400H guys routinely run 800's during the indoor season to tune up for outdoor. These are 44.x guys (faster than bolt has ever run) who focus a ton on speed endurance, and I have never seen a time faster than 1:54.

Wariner/Rudisha/Bolt/Kaki wrote:It would have been a trip to see Haile in an 800 back when he was running 3:32 1500's indoors.I think he even ran a 1500 in 3:31 at one point which suggests he should probably be able to run around 1:42/1:43 in the 800. The 800 would have definitely been a stretch but if he had done a couple 800's each year early on I would'nt doubt if he would have been able to go 1:43 eventually.

very imaginative, but you are confusing immense endurance allowing superlative performances upto as short as 1500m ( 3'31.76i = ~ with 101/102 conversion = 3'29.7 ) with need for ACTUAL REAL basic speed below 1500, which mandates abhorrent lower distance times

at his prime, in ~ '98, he was worth ( from vids/splits & evenly run gun-to-tape )

~ 12'35/26'16

which using

->~ 7'18.41 , 4'44.55 , 3'29.30 , 1'46.84 , 50.78

iaaf scoring table(s) show that Bolt's 19.19 200m time is equivalent to 42.36 in the 400m.

http://www.iaaf.org/mm/Document/Competitions/TechnicalArea/ScoringOutdoor2008_742.pdf

ventolin^2 wrote:

at his prime, in ~ '98, he was worth ( from vids/splits & evenly run gun-to-tape )

~ 12'35/26'16

which using

http://www.jundo.co.uk

->~ 7'18.41 , 4'44.55 , 3'29.30 , 1'46.84 , 50.78

ventolin, I'd love to see some statistics that show how often your calculator is close to accurate about predicting an athlete's ability in different events. Sometimes it's right, but you just can't trust it, because it sometimes shows things that are clearly not right.

1:46.84 and 50.78 for Geb in his prime? That'd ridiculous. I'm not going to go out and there and say he could run 1:42 or 46.x, but those times you list are way too slow.

I doubt you'd find many people who could disagree that he was probably worth at least sub 1:45 and low 49 or high 48 point. How many people have ever run sub 3:32 indoors (or for arguments sake sub 3:31 outdoors) who were anywhere near as slow as you listed. I know you'll say he had 'immense endurance', which he obviously does, but it takes some wheels to run 3:31i or to rock 53-4 in a kick.

I think Gebs pr in the 400 was 49.9, and I wouldn't put a 1:45mid past him. However, I doubt he hits 48 or 1:43.

As for Bolt, if Wariner (20.low and 43.45) isn't considering the 800, why would Bolt (9.58, 19.19 and now ~44.0 based on the relay)? He is already the most famous track athlete of all time.

ya..... wrote:

400H guys routinely run 800's during the indoor season to tune up for outdoor. These are 44.x guys (faster than bolt has ever run) who focus a ton on speed endurance, and I have never seen a time faster than 1:54.

How about some stats to back up this stupid claim.

Dr. Mantis Tobogann wrote:I think Gebs pr in the 400 was 49.9

that was hand-timed, so >50 auto

also, i believe that may have been a flying leg in a relay rather than an open 400 - pushing it out towards 51s

i believe he ran a 1'47 HT in training prior to '99wc

ventolin^2 wrote:

Dr. Mantis Tobogann wrote:I think Gebs pr in the 400 was 49.9

that was hand-timed, so >50 auto

also, i believe that may have been a flying leg in a relay rather than an open 400 - pushing it out towards 51s

i believe he ran a 1'47 HT in training prior to '99wc

Without training for the event and running it in training-knock it back down to 49mid.

Dr. Mantis Tobogann wrote:

I think Gebs pr in the 400 was 49.9, and I wouldn't put a 1:45mid past him. However, I doubt he hits 48 or 1:43.

As for Bolt, if Wariner (20.low and 43.45) isn't considering the 800, why would Bolt (9.58, 19.19 and now ~44.0 based on the relay)? He is already the most famous track athlete of all time.

I doubt geb hits 48 either, although if he trained for 1500 specifically for a year or two in his prime I believe he could have gone 1:43 and who knows what in the 1500.

As for Wariner, if Bolt ever chose to train for the 200 and 400, Wariner better either get faster in the 200 or move to 400/800. I highly doubt Wariner would do that though. I could see Bolt doing an 800 before Wariner. I think Wariner is going to chase MJ's record forever, meanwhile Bolt could get it within a year or two if he chooses to and his coaches originally wanted that anyway. Does Wariner have the speed to get under MJ's 400 record? Maybe not, it does look like he can keep on going after he finishes a 400 though.

MJ (Johnson, not Jordan) opened the 200m in 10.12 in Atlanta, around a turn, so I'd say he could break 10.

James J wrote:

Bolt was dying at 350.... 800 no way.

Yeah, he was running 43.0 pace until 350. Do you expect him keep that pace for 750?

I think Bolt could go out at 1:15 for 600. After that he would need to train for the 800 to learn how to pace himself better.

hisha wrote:

ya..... wrote:

400H guys routinely run 800's during the indoor season to tune up for outdoor. These are 44.x guys (faster than bolt has ever run) who focus a ton on speed endurance, and I have never seen a time faster than 1:54.

How about some stats to back up this stupid claim.

Yeah this is a hard one, I can't seem to find anything on Angelo Taylor running an 800. If he did run one at Georgia Tech, it was slower than 1:50.17 indoors and 1:49.23 outdoors (based on GT's media guide's all-time list). Looks like he was more of a 200/400/400H/4x4 guy based on GT's all-time lists.

Let's see - who else? Bershawn Jackson's IAAF bio lists his 800 pr as 1:55.47. It was run January 12, 2008 so that would support ya....'s theory about running it indoors as base training.

Kerron Clement did not run a 800 race while at Florida, according to their very detailed performance charts.

James Carter...does not have the Hampton University indoor 800 record of 1:54.95 even though he owns the 400, 55 hurdles, and triple jump school records. I wonder if he ever ran the 800 or if it was just slower than 1:54.95.

Felix Sanchez's IAAF bio says 1:51.15 from April 2006.

Would love to find some more stats on this but it's already taken me too long. Someone else continue this research.

Dr. Mantis Tobogann wrote:Without training for the event and running it in training-knock it back down to 49mid.

to train for it wouda required a change in his speed/endurance characteristics

he may have got into 49s if he'd trained hard for it, but at cost of endurance ( only 24 hours in a day & 7 days in a week to train ) which means he wouda likely drifted out to maybe something nearer 12'50/26'50

you can't have it both - better basic speed & maintain endurance for an established elite guy

off his <12'40/(likely)<26'20 he wasn't go to crack 50 even if he ran it all season off his 5k/10k training

Obea Moore as a High Schooler.

400m 45.14

800m 1:49.16

i can't remember any time that calculator has been wrong if you factor in circumstances of the athlete ( most haven't run distances considered, so we are going on probabilities )

your mistake is that you are confusing seemingly incredible 52s/53s last laps in races of 13'00 expected finish by extrapolation ( say 12'00 at bell ) of geb/kennster with actual raw, basic 400 speed

for a start, flying last laps of 52/53 need 1s added for the flying aspect -> 53/54 open speed

next, the fundamental consideration is that these guys have such huge endurance that 12'00 at the bell ( expected ~ 13'00 finish ) has hardly made any dent in them & they have only been tired fractionally by this 12'00 of exertion & they can run very close to their basic 400 ( i'm suggesting 50 or 51 open or including flying aspect ~ 49 or 50 last lap )

they are in effect, nearly running their rested 400 on these last laps & that's wy it looks so impressive & people so frequently assume they must be 48s guys - they aren't

logically, 1'43/1'44 woud be impossible follow on from a guy with 50+ basic speed, as it requires 50.5/52.5 or 51/53, which is running your best absolute possible 400 for 1st lap of an 800 & keep going...

No trolls and an actual intelligent conversation this can't be Letsrun

I don't know about the 800. I was in Kingston this weekend and saw him run his 43.58 relay split afterward he collapsed in the infield and stayed down for a good 45 minutes before getting up and when he did he was clearly still huffing and puffing. It would take alot of stregnth work to get him in shape to run the 800.

Obea Moore Records wrote:

Obea Moore as a High Schooler.

400m 45.14

800m 1:49.16

What should have been.

Looked like the the next Juantorena, no?

Tommie Smith has PR's of 10.1h, 19.83 (WR at the time), and 44.5 (WR at the time) . . . the last person to seriously have a shot at 1-2-4. Had he taken the 400 more seriously, or if there were a professional outlet to continue his career past the age of 24, that 400 might have been a bit faster. Certainly Bolt, with better times in the 1-2, can run 43 and make a run at MJ's record.