Crazy weekend for NCAA XC? RANK 'EM

Ludacris wrote:

Not sure how you can drop Portland down 10 spots behind Oregon when they were two points behind the Ducks on their home course.

...and Kipchumba fell with about 1k to go, losing 50 meters on the field. Cost them at least two points...Hard to believe he wouldn't have been 1st or 2nd...

Just checked Georgetown's roster. Here is what I found

Bumbalough- 13:30, 7:53, 3:38 and 13th at NCAA XC

Levi Miller- 13:56, 8:00 35th at NCAA XC

Mike Krisch- 28:58, 14:01

Mike Banks- 4:03, 8:08

Ayalew Taye- 4:03, 8:08

Sandy Roberts- 4:01, 8:09

Mark Dennin- 4th at Wisco this past weekend

Seems fairly talented to me.

On top of that they dominated the Big East last year going 1, 7,8,9,10, and 11. All but one of those guys is back this year.

There is no way that Louisville is better, other than Thorne and Eaton there is no one on their roster that has credentials even close to any of the listed Georgetown guys.

Providence has McCarthy, Carey, Channon, and McLarren and are very good but they are not better than Georgetown. McCarthy is a stud and Carey has really stepped up but McLarren and Channon aren't XC guys.

Syracuse did smoke Georgetown this weekend and deserves credit. Georgetown did not run well and Levi Miller was sick which did not help. Do a little research and look at last years results and you will see that Syracuse ran great early on at Penn State and Paul Short and then they fell apart. Syracuse is much better than they were last year but I expect a similar trend.

I'm not saying that Georgetown will definitely win the Big East but it is ridiculous to think that they will be outclassed by anyone within the conference.

Are you kidding me?

Roster checks don't tell it all, Louisville has two Canadians that are not all that known.

Bruce - sub 14 5k

Hughes - 8:40 steepler

But I don't know why were spiting out track times here...track times don't mean shit on a cold rainy day in late October in Wisconsin. I'm not saying Louisvilles going to walk away with it at Big East, but it's going to be a lot closer between these four squads (Syracuse, Georgetown, Providence, and Louisville) than people think. All four squads have the potential.

Good analysis, I was waiting for someone to catch my error.

Although German Fernandez would appear to be the #1 guy for Oklahoma State, you really don't know. Based on past performances, he should be, but this is a new year. Honestly, if John Kosgei and Girma Mecheso run their A races over a 10k cross country course (where German's perfect form isn't as strong as on the track) they will beat him. On the track, the kid's virtually untouchable...but take it to the cross course and the nitty gritty grinding Kenyans and Ethiopians that are coached well should be able to beat him (this also holds true for Tyson David and co. at Alabama).

As for now, if I was being completely honest with my rankings, of course I'd put Oklahoma State at #1 (because I can very well see them putting 3 in the top 10, 4 in top 15-20, and 5 in top 30), but until they run their full squad, they remain at #5.

Curious Chris wrote:

Fernandez finishes the race and they get 3rd. Then they add Mesecho who was top 20 last year and somehow get Vail for a 6th year.

I thought you needed to have been on Olympic/World Championship teams to get a 6th year? Other than a World XC team, which shouldn't count as it IMHO, since it is way too easy to get on, what has Vail done to get a 6th year? If this was Rupp we'd never hear the end of it.

hahah i agree with the fact that people would crush rupp till no no end about a 6th year or whatever vail has left there....but as to rankings, its one weekend...in October...and its october 6th as of today, people are getting so excited about october 6th, in 2 weeks, we can do this again and have a better idea of where people are at after pre nats and even that is still early to actually rank teams. esp with a team like syracuse who is now prob sick of reading this that they blew up last year at the end with a 5th at east regionals. they look great now, buts its week 1 of october. people, calm down, everyone is calling conference and national champions right now, which is insane, oregon had a sub par weekend, same with osu and some other teams, it happens. but, on november 23rd, teams that always now show up and run their best will be oregon, wisco, iona, and nau...always ready for that meet...soo ranking should be fun, not people tweaking about how byu and w+m arent like top 5 right, cuz rankings, in the end, mean diddly poo

mideast?? wrote:

Good analysis, I was waiting for someone to catch my error.

Although German Fernandez would appear to be the #1 guy for Oklahoma State, you really don't know. Based on past performances, he should be, but this is a new year. Honestly, if John Kosgei and Girma Mecheso run their A races over a 10k cross country course (where German's perfect form isn't as strong as on the track) they will beat him. On the track, the kid's virtually untouchable...but take it to the cross course and the nitty gritty grinding Kenyans and Ethiopians that are coached well should be able to beat him (this also holds true for Tyson David and co. at Alabama)...

Actually, it is pretty clear that GF is their #1 in XC and that even with their A races JK and GM can't touch him.

1) GF twice raced Derrick and Puskedra in XC earlier this year. Even while being banged up with a stress reaction he handled both of them each time. Contrast that to both Derrick and Puskedra beating JK and GM in their only meeting at NCAAs.

2) GF ran away from both JK and RV with ease in every single XC race during the college season a year ago.

3) GF is young enough such that a year older is a year stronger. Not so with JK.

Any notion that GF is not quite as good at XC (because his form is too perfect?) is simply nonsense. He has beaten every single one of his teammates every single time he has raced them. This is called the real world, not some fantasy mental model you make up about "nitty gritty grinding...".

When all is said and done, GF will be challenging for the NCAA individual title this fall. None of his teammates will be in contention for a medal.

OK OK wrote:

GF ran away from both JK and RV with ease in every single XC race during the college season a year ago.

Except for the 2008 ncaa cross country championships.

oldoldrunner wrote:

If you listen to Coach Smith's post race interview he explains they did not taper. Sometimes the legs are heavy during the race after not tapering. This may explain some subpar performance on Saturday. OSU had some some 13:50 to 14:10 type guys not being able to break 25:00 for 8K He further stated they would rest a little more their next race. Go to Flo track and listen to what he says.

What was more interesting to me was Coach Smith's pre race pep talk at the start line about going after an undefeated season. Did he really expect an un-tapered, average team (without Fernandez/Vail) to win the Jamboree or was he just trying to motivate his B squad? In any event he might be a little delusional or his motivational strategy severely backfired.

My guess is that Girma was a little under the weather.

My sense is that Oregon still battles back to a top 3 by NCAA’s but clearly it’s going to be a shootout with OkSt, NAU and Oregon with OkSt winning it all.

my take...

1. OSU... too talented regardless of how they performed this weekend

2/3. Virtual tie between Stanford and Colorado... alot of people are underrating their squad but take a look and they have a lot of verrrrry talented guys

4.Alabama

5. NAU

6. Oregon

7. Syrcause... looking good

8. William and Mary

9. BYU

10. Indiana

gets too hazy in the 5-10 but i think those are legit top 5

not so fast buddy wrote:

OK OK wrote:

GF ran away from both JK and RV with ease in every single XC race during the college season a year ago.

Except for the 2008 ncaa cross country championships.

Do you not get the concept of injury? Is it really necessary to waste everyone's time by going through the "mandatory" caveat about the race in which someone is injured? Are we really so incredibly stupid here on LRC that we cannot take it as a given that when people refer to individuals beating other individuals that it is in reference to races where both parties were relatively healthy, both started and both finished?

Please raise your game 'buddy' and increase your mental speed to exceed that of the proverbial retarded earthworm.

1. Ok St.

2. Stanford

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. NAU

6. William and Mary

7. Iona

8. Iowa State

9. Colorado

10. BYU

11. Indiana

12. Tulsa

13. Providence

14. Virginia

15. Oklahoma

16. Georgetown

17. Syracuse

18. Washington

19. Duke

20. Minnesota

21. Butler

22. New Mexico

23. Arkansas

24. Arizona St.

25. Auburn

26. Washington St.

27. Florida St.

28. Iowa

29. Villanova

30. UC Riverside

1. Ok St.

2. Stanford

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. NAU

6. William and Mary

7. Iona

8. Iowa State

9. Colorado

10. BYU

11. Indiana

12. Tulsa

13. Providence

14. Virginia

15. Oklahoma

16. Georgetown

17. Syracuse

18. Washington

19. Duke

20. Minnesota

21. Butler

22. New Mexico

23. Arkansas

24. Arizona St.

25. Auburn

26. Washington St.

27. Florida St.

28. Iowa

29. Villanova

30. UC Riverside

1. Ok St.

2. Stanford

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. NAU

6. William and Mary

7. Iona

8. Iowa State

9. Colorado

10. BYU

11. Indiana

12. Tulsa

13. Providence

14. Virginia

15. Oklahoma

16. Georgetown

17. Syracuse

18. Washington

19. Duke

20. Minnesota

21. Butler

22. New Mexico

23. Arkansas

24. Arizona St.

25. Auburn

26. Washington St.

27. Florida St.

28. Iowa

29. Villanova

30. UC Riverside

Rocket, let me get that one more time...

I like it: Oregon gets beat by BYU, Oregon isn't sitting anyone yet Oregon is ranked well ahead. And Portland, being fourth and all, doesn't get ranked.

1. Alabama (they looked good without their number one)

2. Stanford (also looked very solid)

3. Oak State (until they prove everyone is fit/healthy/ready to run)

4. NAU (probably a crapshot between these four)

5. Colorado

6. BYU

7. Oregon

8. Portland

Finally someone else who sees what I see with Bama.

My thoughts on where they will wind up:

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma State

3. Northern Arizona

4. Stanford

5. William & Mary

6. Colorado

7. Oregon

8. Indiana

9. BYU

10. Iona

don't know if this was said yet but no, oregon will not be getting wheating for their xc team this fall as he is not running cross this year and taking a little break. needless to say they will be hard pressed to crack the top 5

Alabama didn't run their #2 (supposedly) even though Emmanuel Bor has been out of his top form for some time now. After a bit more thinking, I have changed my rankings slightly.

1. Northern Arizona

2. Alabama

3. Stanford

4. Oklahoma State

5. Colorado

6. BYU

7. Oregon

8. Syracuse

9. Portland

10. William and Mary

And I still hold firm to my belief that German Fernandez is not the CLEAR #1 at Oklahoma State. As to him being "injured" last year at NCAA cross, word on the street is that he DNF'd purposely. Dave Smith reportedly said himself that German couldn't handle the pressure, faked his achilles injury, dropped out of the race...but was back running again in a weeks time. Don't know if this is entirely true or not, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

John Kosgei will beat German Fernandez at NCAA's