Will Lagat upset Bekele in his run for the Jackpot this Friday in Paris?

no but i am related to Dirk Dahl, multi-National champion for OU and Nike back in the day.

i knew that sound famiLIAR

I predict Bekele will win. I just think that his endurance is far superior to that of the Kenyan, and he is undoubtedly in better form than he is letting on. The only thing that gives pause is the 5k Lagat ran this year, but I think Bekele will burn out his kick with three laps to go.

KB will win almost no matter how the race unfolds.

People underestimate him as he is returning from injury.

7.32.

the430miler wrote:

no but i am related to Dirk Dahl, multi-National champion for OU and Nike back in the day.

So Chris Hall (you) is related to Dirk Dahl? Are you sure it´s not Dirk Diggler?

ukathleticscoach wrote:Or we could look at reality:

Legat pr 7:33

Bekele 7:25

Both are not in pr form but Bekele does not have to run 7:25 to win. If he runs sub 7:30 Lagat is out of it

or we coud use our brain & consider the pedigree of bernie

his 2 under-distance bests this year are 1'46 & 3'32

as people are convinced 1'46 is his best now ( it may just be, as thru the years he's traded off speed for endurance when moving up ) we can go with altering his 3'32, which as mentioned was a low-profile meet

1'46.00 with

3'32.00 ->7'33.22 , 13'11.26

3'31.50 ->7'31.12 , 13'06.40

3'31.00 ->7'29.02 , 13'01.54

3'30.50 ->7'26.91 , 12'56.68

3'30.00 ->7'24.81 , 12'51.82

considering he's already gone just over 13-flat this year in somewhat tactical race, you can throw out top 3 lines

he's somewhere in last 2 lines & that means a potentially damn fast 3k at present !!!

kennster will have to be in nigh on pb shape to break him & a mere 7'28/7'29 won't do it

ventolin wrote:

or we coud use our brain & consider the pedigree of bernie

his 2 under-distance bests this year are 1'46 & 3'32

as people are convinced 1'46 is his best now ( it may just be, as thru the years he's traded off speed for endurance when moving up ) we can go with altering his 3'32, which as mentioned was a low-profile meet

1'46.00 with

3'32.00 ->7'33.22 , 13'11.26

3'31.50 ->7'31.12 , 13'06.40

3'31.00 ->7'29.02 , 13'01.54

3'30.50 ->7'26.91 , 12'56.68

3'30.00 ->7'24.81 , 12'51.82

considering he's already gone just over 13-flat this year in somewhat tactical race, you can throw out top 3 lines

he's somewhere in last 2 lines & that means a potentially damn fast 3k at present !!!

kennster will have to be in nigh on pb shape to break him & a mere 7'28/7'29 won't do it

closest thing we have seen to common sense from you Ventolin, although (and I know you are conceeding on this one) if Lagat is a 1.46 800 runner he clearly is not going to fit your average endurance curve in which case he could well be in 3.32/7.33/13.00 shape..

Don't be a slave to your own equations, despite the sales pitch!

'3'32.00 -> 7'33.22 , 13'11.26

3'31.50 -> 7'31.12 , 13'06.40

3'31.00 -> 7'29.02 , 13'01.54

3'30.50 -> 7'26.91 , 12'56.68

3'30.00 -> 7'24.81 , 12'51.82'

I didn't realise it takes such intelligence to copy & paste a pace chart! How do you get him in the last 2 lines anyway he hasn't run any of those times

Bekele is not in pb shape which is why Legat might beat him. The 1500 is not under distance for Lagat. He's a miler who takes advantage of the pace being slower in 5,000m championship races. Nothing wrong with that

If your pace chart is right how come Lagat has never broken 7:30 in all the 3,000m he has run? Maybe he didn't need that to win the races. But his best 5,000m is 20 seconds down as well, perhaps he can't match their endurance.

At his peak Lagat could have broken 7:30 but now?

If its sub 7:30 Bekele for the win. Whatever, the time I'm going for Bekele anyway

Sorry but YOU are becoming a slave to your equations. Lagat is NOT going to run a 7:26 or 7:24. He is not. Just face it. Now I understand you don't like kenny b for whatever reason but don't let your hatred get in the way of rational thought. You can't base everything off of meaningless equations. Now if we were talking about a 2001 version of lagat then yes but not now. Here's how I see it. If the pace is around 7:33-7:35 then lagat has a definite shot at upsetting bekele but not completely given because he was upset by kogo earlier this year in a sit and kick race whom bekele beat. If its around 7:29/7:30 it should be close but could go to either one. But if its 7:26 or faster which I bet it will be, it's bekele's. This should be an exciting race and i wouldn't be surprised to see lagat take it because bekele has been winning too much. F**k he needs to lose. Give someone else a chance to win.

remember KB jogged 4800 with Hicham then raced him over the last 200m in the Olympics

10k wr against 1500 wr in a 200

that was dumb

that's the only hope Lagat has and I assume KB has learned this lesson

trialswatcher wrote:

Apparently many who watch in the post drug era clearly underestimate what 7:25 looks like, that is all I will say.

7:20 was one of the dirtiest marks ever.

First you have to get rabbitts who can run 1600 in sub 4, then to 2K in sub 5, the close in well under sub 4 pace.

These things use to happen under EPO era. They do not anymore.

"These things"? Since the advent of EPO testing, men have come within one or two seconds of every record except the 3000m. So how many people ran under 7:25 in the 1990s?

Yes, I saw him do it. Stockholm was the most impressive. He was supposed to have gone back to Addis Ababa as the Ethiopian federation has a cutoff for racing prior to Worlds but he stayed in Europe to get the diamond in Stockholm.

Cool. I also thought Stockholm was the best. not just because it was faster, but he look stronger and smoother.

are you going to paris on friday?

i think im going to lake tenkillker with my daddy.

Cool, be sure to do some cliff jumping for me. Haven't been there in a few years.

http://www.youtube.com/v/XnrPROb-o4o

Can someone finally ban the430miler from the site for good? He used to be mildly amusing, but he's finally gotten trite and annoying.

Eldrick, his 800 was non-trivially above 1:46.00, which would affect his curve and it was done in the middle of the pack drafting. Conversely, he soloed away in his 3:32 and it indicates better current ability than the mark itself. This helps get down into the middle or lower range. I do not think that Bernie is ready or prepping to run 7:25 but he could make 7:28, which is well into AR territory. 7:30 is more likely and even Bekele will have some trouble with 7:25.00; few have broken that mark and I do not think he is yet at the top of his game.

As for that record, 3:40/3:58 are pretty good 1500/mile times and the WR is two of those in a row.

u cant ban me because im a moderator.

yep thats it.

itll be fun dude