Who's the X/C individual favorite now?? Stanford strong for team title...

For what it's worth, this is what Kip had to say after the race:

Kip said he wasn't running for time, but rather just to win his race. "I didn't run at my full pace," he said. "I was running at medium." He said he just wanted to run well enough to win and stay healthy.-byucougars.com

It would have been nice to see the great Kip v. Torres duel, but I guess we'll have to wait until Regionals.

David Kimani ran 28:42 for 10k at Arkansas and beat Cragg's 28:46. So any prediction without Kimani or Cragg, well, without Kimani, is not complete.

BYU fan- One of my freinds at pre-nats said that Torres claimed to be cruising it as well. We'll just have to wait until the big dance until this whole mess of Kimani, Torres, Kip, Boaz, and Cragg sorts itself out. Stanford, no doubt, is a huge favorite to win. Also, Sheikh and Meindel ran some very good races. By the way, does anyone know what happened to Mobley?

a couple weeks ago jtorres beat the home course record goucher set the year that goucher won nationals over a slew of kenyans (lagat, mwangi, abdi). goucher, however, got a chance to run against mwangi during the year, albeit losing to him.

it would be a pretty petty generalization to conclude torres will thus win, but its something to think about.

er, abdi's somalian. i didnt really want to make this an ethnic issue though, they're all fantastic athletes.

Novermber 25 matter

The race for the men's individual title will be a barnburner this season. There a several athletes who could win the title:

HEAVY FAVORITES

David Kimani (Al)- 28:42 10k at Arkansas (WOW)

Boaz Cheboiywo (Enmi)- blazed a 4k last week, rounding into

form

Jorge Torres (Co)- The Lone Ranger as he has run every ran

this season alone and very fast!

Dark Horses

Kip Kangogo (BYU)- great at 8k yet unproven over 10k

Alistarr Cragg (Ar)- would be an upset if he beat all the prementioned favorites.

All are in great shape; however, by his 10k performance Kimani is now a SLIGHTLY early favorite as he had to pass 8k in an jaw dropping 22:56 and had that pace for another

two kilometers!

Vipam

Kangogo might not have been running all out from the gun, but anybody who saw that race we'll tell you he wasn't exactly cruising in. He was tying up all down the last straight away.

Alright, here's how I see it shaking up AS OF NOW. I'll probably want to change all of this after conference week.

1. Jorge Torres - Colorado

2. David Kimani - Alabama

3. Boaz Cheboywo - Eastern Michigan

4. Allistar Cragg - Arkansas

5. Kip Kangogo - BYU

LP- Maybe that would be a good list in order of which one is most likely to win, it never actually shakes out that way. Someone will burnout in the race, have a bad day, drop out, etc. My list based on who has the best chances of winning, but certainly not my list of what I think the top 5 will look like:

1. Kimani

2. Torres

3. Cheboiywo

4. Kangogo

5. Cragg

Beefed wrote:

LP- Maybe that would be a good list in order of which one is most likely to win, it never actually shakes out that way. Someone will burnout in the race, have a bad day, drop out, etc. My list based on who has the best chances of winning, but certainly not my list of what I think the top 5 will look like:

1. Kimani

2. Torres

3. Cheboiywo

4. Kangogo

5. Cragg

Assuming Colorado is thinking team title then Torres and Cragg can't run too risky a race.

Mobley said he was injured and is on his way back...

And how about Toloff from MSU? Anyone notice he was second behind Torres at 5k? Definitely an up-and-comer for ... top 15 anyway, maybe better.

As far as the top 5, damn it's hard. Kimani seems healthy and I think that may make him better than anyone. But if the weather sucks (esp. really cold), Torres might have the advantage.

Torres and Cragg will not run safe. They will run to win and if they die then it happens. There not thinkin about how the rest of the guys are doing. There not going to be in the race thinkin i can't go after that guy because my team needs me. Whoever made that comment about runnin safe. That was the most stupid comment ive heard.

The chance at a team title will not affect Jorge or A. Cragg chances at the individual title. Their goal will be to win first and foremost and add as little points to their team score, not run safe and place fifth. Jorge, Allistar,

Kip, Boaz, and David are studs compared to the rest of the

collegiate ranks THIS cross x-country season. My picks

as of 20 Oct 02.

1. David Kimani

2. Boaz Chebiowyo

3. Jorge Torres

4. Kip Kangogo

5. Allistar Cragg

It was very difficult placing 1 thru 4, but what the heck

it only a prediction.

Kimani and Cragg were impressive...and they are definitely part of the top favorites (Kimani more so)...But there were 12 guys under 30:00 in that race, which was 2nd fiddle to the Pre-Nats. This would lead me to believe that while their 28:40's were fast, the course was a factor.

Remember, last year, an invincible Boaz set the ISU 10K course record in 29:52, while demolishing the competition at the regional meet. In other words, can we take the 28:40's at face value??

What's the course record at Chilli Pepper, anyway? That should put the times in perspective.

Colorado's thinking will have litte, if anything, to do with A. Cragg's running. He will run for the Razorbacks.

If Cragg is considered a strong contender, then Robison should be too. In fact, I think Robison will beat Cragg at Nationals and will beat at least one other HUGE name.

often not mentioned in anyone's list is Don Sage, but he always comes up big in big meets. Sage has amazing range, amazing speed, and he will only do better than last year's stellar xc performance. A top five without Sage would be a faulty prediction.

My Predictions:

1. Torres - I think its his year, plus I'm betting on cold weather

2. Cragg - kicks down Boaz for 2nd

3. Boaz - He doesn't seem as good when he's challenged, when he wins he breaks away early, I don't think he can do that on these guys.

4. Kangogo - peaking to early, and I call BS on him running a medium effort

5. Kimani - doesn't run well in the cold

With the injury to Ritz those 5 are the only legit contenders for the title. Others could come in the top 5 such as Sage (Mcardle, Lincoln, a dozen Stanford guys, Lincoln, eg, NAU guys, etc, etc), but saying "a top 5 without Sage is a faulty prediction" is a ludicrous statement. There's no way Sage can compete with those 5, he might get one of them, but only if they have a bad race.