Too many people think the know that they are right definitevly...
Basically, he has a shot, as does anyone in the race.
It is statistically unlikely.
But he is showing signs of getting to the next level.
The next level is probably placing between 5-10.
Salazar has said for 9 years that the goal was to close the gap; that getting closer was the goal, that *maybe someday a medal would be possible.
He's never told Galen "stick with me kid, I'll train you to a gold medal."
He's told him "it is incredibly tough. It will take a decade plus of work, and there is no guarentee you'll even medal...but the quest is to see if we can get you in the mix, close the gap, and see what happens."
That has been Salazar's take for 9 years, for Galen or any USA runner... to "CLOSE THE GAP" to "get in the mix."
What is great about that, is that Galen has been on a path of consistent incremental improvement. Galen has been informed and mentally trained to be realistic from the start.
Looking back at all his interviews over the last 6 years or so, he's never too high or too low, win or lose.
Of all the American runners (male) the only one who seems to be having as much fun at it as Galen, is Evan Jager.
I think the key to whatever improvement, how ever far Galen gets in the world of distance running, it will be part talent, of course...but a huge part will be his attitude...
Which it looks like Alberto has coached perfectly. Galen seems equally happy however he finishes...and it is usually in the top...you know 5 years of Nancies bitching at him hear because he took too many second places...laughable...like it is easy to finish that high in that many elite races in college, consistently... But Galen takes it all in stride with a positive attiude, he clearly enjoys running and racing... Seems to still have his childlike joy for it...And you know who that most reminds me of?
A Kenyan or an Ethiopian.
Maybe Galen never gets there, never medals on the world stage, never makes the podium - BUT you could say that about EVERY American male runners these days.
BFD.
The question becomes if you understand the quest, if you are seeing the story develop, if you have noticed Salazar and Galen's quotes and goals all along.
It is like all of the lightwits that were not paying attention at the start of Salazar's discovery and stewardship of this talent, to what he/they said, how they planned things out a decade plus in advance...how the goal was to keep closing the gap...and make the quest to get in the conversation for the podium...and see what happens...well those people have not been paying attention.
Too many people were saying stupid things like "Alberto is going to over-train him, grind him into the ground..."
Having run with Alberto for 3 years, I knew that was not the case. Why would you have someone do what you did that ruined your career, your body, and nearly killed you on multiple occasions???
The answer is, you wouldn't, only an idiot would.
And Alberto may have been driven and naive in his young days, but the dude is far from an idiot.
I knew without the internet, when Alberto took 15th in the Olympics that he had over trained himself and ruined his career. I knew it because I was waiting for it to happen...having watched him for 3 years...it was disapointing as hell to see him not win Gold in LA, but I was not surprised, sad, but not surprised.
...The game here is to watch the closing of the gap.
Galen even said it last week "gonna stick my nose in with the Africans and see what I can do."
Without incremental improvement, and closing the gap, focusing on closing the gap...instead of "winner take all" mentality...the gap never gets closed, and winning, or medaling NEVER becomes possible for American male runners.
The way Galen performed this year, and the way he is looking, nothing will surprise me, and nothing won't surprise me.
It is unlikely he'll medal...
But as Amy Yoder said "just do it, don't think about it" "don't put limits on yourself, just see what you can do.
And I think that is how Alberto is coaching his athletes... He coaches them up, and trains their mental approach to be that they not limit themselves.
It is a fascinating journey to follow Alberto and Schumacher's groups...and the other OTC groups/members.
Wouldn't it be nice if more people enjoyed that?