RE: Does Galen Rupp really have a shot at winning a medal in Berlin?

no one thought kara would medal. no one thought shalane would medal. just for your consideration. i dont think we'll be seeing too much of galen this summer he'll try to be as rested as possible for the big day as he has had a LONG 9 months or so. have some pride and hope people.

His only chance is if the pace is reasonably slow by today's standards 27:10-27:20. If it goes sub 27 min, Rupp isn't there yet. He has come a long way this year as far as confidence and speed go, I just think he is still a level away from the big guns.

I would be great to see hiim get an American Record if he doesn't get a medal.

ojefwlfjwlekfj wrote:

no one thought shalane would medal.

I did. Rupp has no chance to medal. That being said, he is the best American 5K - 10K runner right now by a long way. He has a shot at the top 10. The Africans are just too good.

Rupp won't medal, he needs to be in sub 27 shape to beat those guys. Give him a year or two, racing Bekele and company isn't the same as dominating NCAA and US guys.

He doesn't have to worry about the Africans ganging up on him, they don't even know who he is!

I hope he does it.

I have become a rupp fan.

there is something about watching him dominate all year that made me go from hating to respecting... and now a fan.

it will be tough... but if anyone can... its him

No, I do not think Rupp has a shot because I doubt a men's 10k would ever go as slow as the women's 10k in Osaka. And he could not duplicate what Flanagan did in Beijing because, even if he has a 27:10 day, there are so many others that can match that.

Some guys will have a bad day but at World's there will be:

4 Ethiopians (probably Bekele, Sihine, and 2 of Abdosh, Dinkessa and Jelian)

3 Kenyans (certainly Kitwara and Ngatuny and probably either Masai or Kogo)

2 or 3 Eritreans (Tadese and maybe one or 2 others in the mix like Kidane Tadasse)

1 or 2 Ugandans (Kiprop and maybe Kipsiro.

and Qatar and Tanzania will have few others in contention.

I really want him to do well but he and his coach have both said their goal is to get him within 15 seconds of the winners. If he does that I think the best he can hope for is to move up a few notches to the 7-10 range. That may come by passing others who overextended themselves.

[quote}

That being said, he is the best American 5K - 10K runner right now by a long way.

I think I can beat rupp in a 5k. NOt the 10k though, i dont run the 10k

Women's running TOTALLY different from men's at the world level. Although Shalane & Kara's PBs or SBs may not have made them medal favorites on paper, all it took was a strong race from them, and one or two of the top women to have an off day, and they were suddenly in medal contention.

In contrast, consider: the 1 athlete who has broken 27 twice this year did not even make the Kenyan team! With 3 Kenyans, 3 Ethiopians, a couple Tanzanians, Eritreans, "Qataris" and Ugandans, Rupp will need more than "one or two" athletes to have an off day, to be in medal contention. Top 5 would be a superlative result for him, and even then, I only see him getting Top 5 when, late in the race, he sweeps up the pieces from superior athletes who blew up, trying to go for a medal...

Bottom line: there will be 9-12 athletes on the line in Berlin who are capable of running much, much faster than Rupp.

JRunnerJ wrote:

Bottom line: there will be 9-12 athletes on the line in Berlin who are capable of running much, much faster than Rupp.

I'd agree with everything you said except the line above. Rupp was 11th in 2007 with both Abdi and Ritz ahead of him. If he has surpassed him than he moves to 9th. Now I know a lot has changed and there are other players in the game, but Rupp has probably made more progress since 2007 than 90% of the guys who will be in the field.

There may be 4-5 guys capable of running much faster than Rupp in the field, and another 2-3 capable of running a bit faster than him. But if Rupp finished anywhere between 9th-12th I think it would be less than satisfactory for him and his coach and rightly so. It's not too likely that 9-12 guys could all line up ALL ON THE SAME DAY in Berlin and ALL run under 27:00 even if there was a rabbit in the field. Even if they did, that may not be "much faster than Rupp" let alone "much, much faster". Realistically 4-5 of those guys could run under 27:00 on that given day and another 2-3 could run between 27:00-27:10 which should be in Rupps range. And theres a more than decent chance that 1/5 or 1/4 of the top guys are not on their A game that day, opening up the door for Rupp if he is. One thing Rupp has shown is that he tends to show up pretty close to his level on a very consistent basis.

And not all those guys can close as fast as Rupp so in a championship race and slower overall pace his chances look better to get a couple more guys. That puts him in the hunt for a 5-8th place finish.

do you really think it will be a slow tactical race. It might start out slow but the Ethiopians will start winding it up and might run the last 5000 under 13:10. Could any American go 14:00--13:10 ?

The Concrete Runner wrote:

That being said, he is the best American 5K - 10K runner right now by a long way.

What is a long way better than Lagat's 13:03?

Rupp was 13th last year and I figure he's in about 15-seconds faster shape this year than last year. Subtracting 15 seconds from his Beijing time puts him in 8th in that race if everything else stays equal. That works for me because if I had to predict a place off the top of my head I would say 7th.

If he medals it would be remarkable, I give him a <10% chance of that. If he finishes outside of the top 12 it would be very disappointing, I give that a <15% chance.

The Africans aren't going to "gang up" on Galen Rupp. I doubt they will be giving him much thought. That's like saying Galen, Ritz, and Abdi were planning to "gang up" on one of the ZAP Fitness guys in order to put him out of contention in the US finals.

That being said, I think being largely ignored is one of the best ways for Rupp to have a strong showing at the WCs. He can sneak up into the top 5 while no one is looking.

ummm..... pretty sure all of the top5-6 africans can close faster than rupp if not faster. The spanish guy who got last at the 5k final at beijing closed like a 3:54 final mile in a 5k race before but it was around a 14:15 overall time. People put too much stock in closing off of slow paces. Everyone in the entire field thats a top ten contender can do that. Hell, craig mottram ran his last mile in 3:58 at the 2005 helsinki world champs but the overall time was like 13:32. And 27:00-27:10 for rupp is like going all out in a 10k. He won't have enough speed at the end to close well if he runs that kind of time. Thats like saying bekele can close a 10k in 52/53 second last lap off of a 26:17-26:30 overall time.

In the past he's been around 10-15 or so. Now I see him as a 5-10 guy in these kinds of races. Eventually, I suspect/hope he'll punch into the top 5. It's all a progression, no miracles, just a long steady push towards the front.

Your logic is sound only if you are a special ed 3rd grader. Meb ran 27:13 in 2001. The world champs was won that same year in 27:57. Surely he would've won the race by 45 seconds if he would have raced, right. Oh wait, he did race and finish in 23rd! Nevertheless you have Rupp running a 27:00-10 in Berlin. Something pretty much only Bekele and Sihine can do! And Sihine is injured and Bekele might have an off day. Rupp wins! Rupp wins! Idiot.

Go back and read my post in the context of who I was responding to and tell me if you still don't understand.

Additionally, why are you comparing a one hit wonder like Meb to Rupp? Meb is off WAAAAY more than he is on. If he would have run a 27:13 effort at worlds that year do you think he really would have been that far back? He pulled a Meb, or and Abdi. When was the last time you saw Galen choke like that?

And I'll save you the trip back to my response since your reading comprehension skills are beyond questionable. What I said was IF it Berlin was a timetrialed all out race thats where Rupp would be running.

The only reason Bekele and Co. have run around 27:00 at international competitions is because they go at 27:30 pace for the first half and close hard. Duhh!

If Rupp goes at 13:45 through half, he'd probably be able to come back at 13:30 and finish :15 seconds behind the leaders.

The fact that we are having this discussion says loads about how far Galen Rupp has come. Let's not forget that he is the product of a lot of good fortune. First off, he had supportive parents who kept a close eye on him and his associations; secondly, he was fortunate enough to make contact with an exceptional coach who cared about him as a person; thirdly, he was even more fortunate to be directed to a college that cares about the sport and supported him through good and bad. Not many talented kids have all this fall in line for them: being born to the right parents, finding a mentor with knowledge and compassion and being exposed to the right collegiate situation to fit his talents. This was nothing more than an alignment of all the stars. Let's all sit back and watch what it may be, rather than negatively say what it can't be, and perhaps one day we'll realize that we were present for something very, very special indeed. .