Over or under 13:15 for Fernandez

the rocket wrote:

How much more evidence is needed?

Like others, I wanna see him actually run an outdoor 5k before I agree that he is "the chosen one." Radical concept, huh?

We should wait and see wrote:

the rocket wrote:

How much more evidence is needed?

Like others, I wanna see him actually run an outdoor 5k before I agree that he is "the chosen one." Radical concept, huh?

All you're asked to do is guess here. Not like your betting the family farm. Nobody is going to take you out to the firing squad if you're wrong here. I suppose if he runs a 5,400 and splits 13:18 at 5K you still won't want to offer up a guess?

speculation wrote:

All you're asked to do is guess here.

An indoor mile isn't ANYTHING like an outdoor 5k. As I recall, Oprah ran a marathon a few years back. Should we take a guess at her 5k potential based upon that?

We should wait and see wrote:

speculation wrote:

All you're asked to do is guess here.

An indoor mile isn't ANYTHING like an outdoor 5k. As I recall, Oprah ran a marathon a few years back. Should we take a guess at her 5k potential based upon that?

Yeah, with an indoor mile, and indoor 3K, a recent 8K cross country race where he kicked two other guys who have JUST run 13:44 & 13:46 (put over 9 seconds/K over the last 2K on them) I guess we really have nothing to go off of here. No frame of reference whatsoever.

This is just the wildest silly old goose chase I've ever seen. I have no idea if he will run, 12:25 or 14:50. I better just wait and see, safer that way, what with the family business on the line and all.

speculation wrote:

This is just the wildest silly old goose chase I've ever seen. I have no idea if he will run, 12:25 or 14:50. I better just wait and see, safer that way, what with the family business on the line and all.

You've got issues, although I'm fairly certain that you look in the mirror and think that you have a terrific sense of humor.

Much like the other guy, I really do have an estimate within my head about what this kid might be able to run. However, I'm not going to throw water onto a grease fire! I simply wanted to point out to the early-20-something groupies that they are PROBABLY getting carried away by saying he will smash the American Collegiate Record as a freshman. The 22-year-old female who predicted 13:03 is a classic example.

That being said, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it one way or another. All of the people making these wildly optimistic guesses based upon an ENTIRE 3-5 years of experience within the sport are definitely entertaining!!

Spyders Webb is to Alan Webb as

Typing Under the Influence is to German Fernandez

These people are just putting out educated guesses, and you (Typing Under the Influence), while not contributing to the actual OP's question in anyway what so ever, just sit here and play the negative Nancy role.

My question for all the people saying he is going to run under 13:20 this year is "where in the heck is he gonna do this at?". I mean he's not gonna walk out to this conference meet and drop a 13:06 or something like that. Is he going to Europe or Prefontaine or maybe Stanford?

Typing under the influence? wrote:

Much like the other guy, I really do have an estimate within my head about what this kid might be able to run. However, I'm not going to throw water onto a grease fire! I simply wanted to point out to the early-20-something groupies that they are PROBABLY getting carried away by saying he will smash the American Collegiate Record as a freshman. The 22-year-old female who predicted 13:03 is a classic example.

That being said, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it one way or another. All of the people making these wildly optimistic guesses based upon an ENTIRE 3-5 years of experience within the sport are definitely entertaining!!

fair enough, but the irony here is that if German thought along your lines I wouldn't be as optimistic of his chances at running in the 13:10 - 13:15 range. it is precisely his thinking combined with his talent that makes me a believer. i wouldn't go as far as to say he will smash McChesney's mark, but I do think he can get in that range. keep in mind that McChesney grew up in track town USA, in a running family, watching Pre race the great ones at hayward field. his high school pr's were: 1:56, 4:07, 8:50. He also ran a 14:12 5K and 29:06 10K (supposedly as a junior). Compare that to 4:00, & 8:34, and it's clear to see that German has a big jump at both distances coming into college. German didn’t have a lot of time to do this, he spent very little time racing in high school. he's already lowered his 1600 by nearly seven seconds. so following that, it's about 18 seconds for 2 miles? that is around 8:16 for February indoors.

iaaf tables puts a 3:55.0 indoor as follows for indoor marks: 3:55.04, 4:58.05 2k, 7:41.06 3k, 8:19.88 2Mi, 13:18.07. i don't have a whole lot of reason to think that german get's weaker as he gets closer to 5k. remember this is for indoors, 99% of runners go faster outdoors.

i'm in my late 30's and I just haven't seen a U.S. runner with this kind of range at his stage in his career in my lifetime. of course I have seen all kinds of talented runners here and there, but the stuff he's doing just doesn't really make sense. but really, he made Luke and Chris look like also rans at US junior nationals, and he did it all in the last 2K loop. how do you put 35 seconds on a 13:46 5K guy over 2000 meters. You do it by being a hell of a lot faster than and stronger than 13:46. he proved a better 2 miler than miler last summer and it's hard to argue his strength now. i understand it's kind of frightening to break a thought process that is developed over watching decades of performances and perhaps putting in a decade or more of college/national class running. it was for me. but German is just kind of a rule breaking runner.

Sorry, but I'm a dude. I made a very stupid joke about a lady never telling her age on another thread (a very stupid joke I realize now). So yeah, now I feel like an idiot, but oh well.

Rocket, I think he or she was referring to me. Either as a typically chauvinistic LetsRun slight or because I used gender-neutral language. But I too am a male, Rocket. And 22. We should be friends! Haha. And yes, 13:03!

My question for all the people saying he is going to run under 13:20 this year is "where in the heck is he gonna do this at?". I mean he's not gonna walk out to this conference meet and drop a 13:06 or something like that. Is he going to Europe or Prefontaine or maybe Stanford?[/quote]

That is the real question. Cardinal Invite seems like a good time for it, however NCAA's may be a possibility if he, Rupp & Chelanga are in it, but more likely that will doddle for a few kilos. Mt. Sac is probably too soon after junior world cross. if he's holding up through USA's there is a chance there too. again i think his chances are higher if rupp chooses to do the 5K at usa's.

the best bet is cardinal invite, or possibly come out to eugene for an open meet 5K.

would salazar and coach smith agree to a rabbited duel at hayward field, invite chelanga and take a run at the ACR in the outdoor 5K at the oregon relays or oregon twilight??? that would be something to see. i actually think rupp and fernandez could do a helluva job taking laps through 4K with chelenga in the mix, last 1K is anyones race.

speculation wrote:

the best bet is cardinal invite, or possibly come out to eugene for an open meet 5K.

would salazar and coach smith agree to a rabbited duel at hayward field, invite chelanga and take a run at the ACR in the outdoor 5K at the oregon relays or oregon twilight??? that would be something to see. i actually think rupp and fernandez could do a helluva job taking laps through 4K with chelenga in the mix, last 1K is anyones race.[/quote]

Coach Dave Smith, Coach Lanana, Coach Salazar......you listening? This here is a good idea.

Extend the invitation to Ryan Gregson, see if he want's to visit Hayward Field for a PR. This might be able to generate enough buzz to fill up the main two grandstands. I know I'd make that trip. Get a fast mile with Wheating, Acosta, Centro, McNamara, invite Ulrey and some of the local elites, say you are gonna have 5 under 4:00.

A guy like Lanana could make this happen.

Ryan Gregson just ran 13.57 in melbourne. Andy Baddeley managed 13.20 in the same race won by Olympian Collis Birmingham in 13.16. Baddeley is the fastest miler in 2008 with a 3.49 and world, olympic, european and commonwealth 1500m finals experience. Gregson was a whisker behind Birmingham over 1500m in Sydney running 3.37.

Your boy Fernanadez is good, but more similar to Gregson at this stage of his career than Baddeley or Birmingham. As Gregson showed, the 5km is a different beast to 1500m and both he and Fernandez need a few more years of endurance training and experience to be able to deal with 12.5 laps at 64s (or quicker)

well he could be under...or over...or right on!

Brti reality wrote:

Ryan Gregson just ran 13.57 in melbourne. Andy Baddeley managed 13.20 in the same race won by Olympian Collis Birmingham in 13.16. Baddeley is the fastest miler in 2008 with a 3.49 and world, olympic, european and commonwealth 1500m finals experience. Gregson was a whisker behind Birmingham over 1500m in Sydney running 3.37.

Your boy Fernanadez is good, but more similar to Gregson at this stage of his career than Baddeley or Birmingham. As Gregson showed, the 5km is a different beast to 1500m and both he and Fernandez need a few more years of endurance training and experience to be able to deal with 12.5 laps at 64s (or quicker)

Luke Puskedra 13:46 indoors HUSKY CLASSIC 2009 - 2/14/2009

Chris Derrick 13:44 indoors UW INDOOR INVITATIONAL 2009 - 1/30/2009

-----------------------------------------------

1 25 German Fernandez 18 Stillwater OK Oklahoma State University 23:20

2 303 Christopher Derrick 18 Naperville IL Stanford University 23:39

3 495 Luke Puskedra 18 Eugene OR University of Oregon 23:53

2009 USA Cross Country Championships February 7, 2009

-------------------------------------------------

You'll notice this was done between the two others 5K debuts. German put the distance on these guys just on the last 2K loop, per his coaches instructions. I don't think 5K is going to be the challenge that some people think it will be for him. He ran 7:47 indoors while SICK. He ran just over 4:00 for the last 1600.

One more thing. German doesn't necessarily need to be in a super fast race and be pulled along by Rupp or someone else. He's proved he can run great times by himself many times. If he is in 13:15 shape in an ideal race, he could certainly go under 13:20 solo.

It astounds me that anyone could doubt he could break 13:15. Other than sickness and injury, it's pretty much inevitable. Those who are wringing their hands that they can't guess until they actually see him run a 5K first, where's the fun in that? Live dangerously, take the leap! I think I predicted earlier in this thread, about 13:13 at the Stanford Cardinal invite. I'm 39.

I think he's capable of a sub 13:08 collegiate record, but doubt he will have a chance to do that before nationals. That kind of pace just doesn't happen in championships. The Olympic record was 13:05.59 for 14 years until Bekele brought it down to 12:57.82 last summer!

The question should really be, after German easily establishes his talent at 5K on his first couple attempts, how will he perform in crowded, strategic championship track races (NCAA 5000, possibly U.S. Championships and World Championships), and will he be able to deliver a 53 second final quarter kick that is requisite to compete with the world's best?

I'll jump in. I think in a European race he could run sub 13:10. People do amazing things when they get hoovered in Europe. I think German is probably as good as Boaz, Cheseret and Kimani and they ran very fast in Europe (if I recall, Boaz and Kimani ran like 13:11 or something early in college).

In a race on US soil, like a Stanford, he'll be up there for the W.

So I'll say "under" and if he goes to Europe and gets into races, I say potentially way under.

I also agree that his talent level should be compared to Choge, Songok et al. However, I do disagree that he is by far the most talented American we've ever seen. I think, though he has fallen out of favor with the Letsrun crew, that Alan Webb is AT LEAST as talented as German (and the aforementioned Kenyans). The guy ran a 13:10 first time out, 27:3whatever, down to 1:43 and 3:4whatever. Alan is sick. As much as German. He doesn't seem to have the head that German has, though. At one point I think he did, but not any longer.

And to the poster that asked about Vaughn... Not German levels of talent, perhaps, but he was something like an 8:45 guy in HS and if I remember correctly, didn't he finish like 4th one year in cross? He is very talented. 13:18 was not a surprise to me. Guys like him, Curtis, etc should be running 13:15... and in Europe, faster. I would have to think believing they can do it is half the battle.

speculation wrote:

Yeah, with an indoor mile, and indoor 3K, a recent 8K cross country race where he kicked two other guys who have JUST run 13:44 & 13:46 (put over 9 seconds/K over the last 2K on them) I guess we really have nothing to go off of here. No frame of reference whatsoever.

Chelanga and Rupp just ran 5000m that are +26 seconds faster than Derrick and Luke's. Chelanga and Rupp could've jogged 22:50 on that course and crushed German like a bug.

the rocket wrote:

...

and I'm 22 years old.

Mike Crouch's birthday is January 3, 1988, which makes him 21 yrs. old. So either I had a predicted that people would call me out on talking about myself, or I am not Mike Crouch.