Over or under 13:15 for Fernandez

Under

under

over!

Easily under.

Over, but not by much, and I won't mind if I'm wrong.

under ... way under

ditto. odds are fair that it's over 13:30. yet low teens is a real possibility. who can tell with this kid? i chose to give him time - no pressure - have fun kicking ass.

over. to run mid-teens in the ncaa is really special. it's not enough to be fit enough, you also have to get the right race. odds that he gets fit enough to run that fast AND gets into the right race to make it happen = pretty slim.

that said, i hope i'm wrong. i'm a fan.

If he is in a fast race then under for sure.

Good grief, over!!! Yes, he is an amazing talent, but let's not get carried away! Doesn't McChesney still hold the American-born collegiate record at 13:14? You won't see a true freshman break that record.

13:15? Seriously?!? wrote:

Good grief, over!!! Yes, he is an amazing talent, but let's not get carried away! Doesn't McChesney still hold the American-born collegiate record at 13:14? You won't see a true freshman break that record.

Did McChesney have 3:55 mile speed? If he gets in a paced race and the rabbit keeps them moving well, Fernandez, in my opinion will have a great chance to break McChesney's record this year.

3200guy wrote:

Did McChesney have 3:55 mile speed?

No. On the other hand, does Fernandez have 27:47 10k strength? Once again, no.

ill say over, but really it is a push b/c i think german will run the A standard at 5k and will make the world championship team.

3:55 indoors = 3:50 outdoors.

3:50 + 8:34 + 1 Year = 13:10, maybe faster.

Next year Fernandez can be breaking 13. He's that good.

McChesney rarely ran the mile, but he ran under 4 more than once. His PB was at the 1981 Twilight meet. 1981 Tom Byers 3:55.71;Bill McChesney 3:56.36; Rudy Chapa 3:57.04; Ed Spinney 3:57.34; Ken Martin 3:57.84Billy also ran 7:40 for 3000m.

3200guy wrote:

13:15? Seriously?!? wrote:

Good grief, over!!! Yes, he is an amazing talent, but let's not get carried away! Doesn't McChesney still hold the American-born collegiate record at 13:14? You won't see a true freshman break that record.

Did McChesney have 3:55 mile speed? If he gets in a paced race and the rabbit keeps them moving well, Fernandez, in my opinion will have a great chance to break McChesney's record this year.

Not a Fatty Fat wrote:

3:55 indoors = 3:50 outdoors

NO, not necessarily. If you're too young to remember, Google a gentleman named Eamonn Coghlan and see if you still believe in that conversion formula.

Fernandez is exactly what America needs and has needed since the days of Steve Prefontaine. We have waited and waited and waited for a running savior to come along that has the ability to climb into the upper echelon of T&F that Fernandez has. I put nothing past this kid. Unless he is told otherwise by Dave Smith, Fernandez plays for keeps. He has already moved past our collegiate system in a manner of months. There are no race strategies against him now. He runs, he kicks ass. Period. He doesnt talk about tactics or times or other competitors, he just puts that pedal down and whoosh! We are seeing just the beginning of this kids potential. I would also be willing to bet $1000 that Fernandez could run 27:45 for a 10k. No doubt in my mind. Things are looking bright.

there are kenyans his age who run that fast... so the fact that its a big scary time shouldnt be a factor

13:15? Seriously?!? wrote:

Good grief, over!!! Yes, he is an amazing talent, but let's not get carried away! Doesn't McChesney still hold the American-born collegiate record at 13:14? You won't see a true freshman break that record.

wasn't the "he's a true frosh" sentiment pulled out when someone predicted a run a waldrop's record this year?

as many have stated before; i put nothing past this young man. though i count for very little, he has exceeded my expectations time and time again. maybe i should set them higher.