Is a 27:20 american runner from 23 years ago vastly superior to one now?

I think someone like Rupp will run 26:45. It isn't scientific, just a gut feeling. He seems to have a big upside, as they say in other sports. Once one does it, then the paradigm will shift and 27 low won't seem so daunting. I predict within 4 years top Americans (plural) will be running sub 27 and sub 13. Now keep in mind that those times in time trial races are different than those times in World Champs or Olympics. But the younger guys are taking the step. If Rupp runs 27:00, Fernandez will shoot for 26:55. If Rupp runs 26:45, Fernandez will shoot for 26:40.

I'd agree with being more surprised at a 26:45 than a 2:06. You either have the v8 engine or you don't, time to move up is always the answer.

my bad Bick ran 27:37 in 1985 and 13:13

my bad Bick ran 27:37 in 1985 and 13:13

years wrote:

Tracks are significantly faster than they were in the 80's. I'm pretty sure Chevron and Tartan were all they had back then. Mondo is a much faster surface. Spikes are also faster with better traction on the spike plates.

Completely wrong on all counts. They had mondo in the 80s. I ran on it. The spikes in the 80s were actually quite good. No, not QUITE what they are today but the difference is negligible. I've run in both.

ngong hills wrote:

shoes? yes, definetly. track surfaces? yes, without a doubt. human physiology? no. understanding of human physiology? yes, night and day. nutrition? bigtime yes.

Maybe they've improved in the nogong hills since then but here in the USA they have not improved much at all.

In fact, they had Mondo even back in the 70s. The Montreal Olympics were run on Mondo

wow, if you dont see how much america has improved in those areas in the last 20 years, you are truly a dumbass.

Wow, if you are so stupid as to believe that running "technology" has improve significantly, you must be...someone who wasn't there.

by this rationale then why are not more americans running under 13:00. BK did it in the 90's right? i would say we are over due based on your theory.

stipe wrote:

I think someone like Rupp will run 26:45. It isn't scientific, just a gut feeling. He seems to have a big upside, as they say in other sports. Once one does it, then the paradigm will shift and 27 low won't seem so daunting. I predict within 4 years top Americans (plural) will be running sub 27 and sub 13. Now keep in mind that those times in time trial races are different than those times in World Champs or Olympics. But the younger guys are taking the step. If Rupp runs 27:00, Fernandez will shoot for 26:55. If Rupp runs 26:45, Fernandez will shoot for 26:40.

I was surprised to see that Sihine is only 11th on the all-time list. Several of the guys in front of him are guys he routinely beats in championship races. He's nearly as consistent as Bekele on the track, yet has so much less margin for error. He may not be one of the fastest guys in history, but has to be one of the best at preparing and executing in championship races.

the belgian is not only a transplant but also a drug cheat (epo, i think).

Though I would expect Rupp to improve somewhat on his 5000/10,000m bests, I would be pleasantly surprised if he ever runs a faster 5000 than Alberto's 13:11 best or the current AR for 10,000.

look at me more wrote:

ex-stasi wrote:

Nenow ran 27:20 in 1986, not '85.

Rupp ran 13:37 for 5000 meters in 2004 and has improved all the way to 13:30.

IMO, he will end his career with a 10,000 m PB closer to his current PB of 27:33 than to 27:00.

Cannot fathom Rupp running 2X5000 back to back faster than his current best.

Rupp's 10k and 5k PBs are misleading. They were both very championship style races. The kid is significantly more able than 13:30 and 27:33 TODAY.

If Rupp goes to Europe for a good 5K and a good 10K next summer, I'd be surprised if he doesn't accomplish both of these. I can't remember for sure, but I don't think he ran either events in Europe over the past two summers with that kind of competition.

With his level of experience now, and his obvious level of confidence he is ready to crush some old PR's.

If you've watched him run recently you can see he's on a whole 'nother level.

27:20 track, 27:22 road, where are the new Nenows?

The 27:20 was close to the world record when Nenow ran it. Today, that would get you lapped by Bekele and Geb. That's the comparison that needs to be made. You can argue that drugs play a part in the progression, but if they don't then I don't see how in the world a time of 27:20 today is any where near as impressive as it was when Nenow did it.

People use this rationalization a lot, a lot of the time it doesn't pan out. People run a races (off the double, pace was uneven, in the rain, it was cold out, it was hot out, didn't taper, no speed work, 120 miles last week, up all night drinking,...) where everything clicks and then in "better" conditions they run the same/slower times.Personally I would love to see him bust out a 13:10 5k/27 min 10k this year but I am not holding my breath. It would also be grand for Ritz to have one healthy season to see if he can be a 13:10/27:00 min guy

prs come with great races wrote:

If Rupp goes to Europe for a good 5K and a good 10K next summer, I'd be surprised if he doesn't accomplish both of these. I can't remember for sure, but I don't think he ran either events in Europe over the past two summers with that kind of competition.

With his level of experience now, and his obvious level of confidence he is ready to crush some old PR's.

If you've watched him run recently you can see he's on a whole 'nother level.

OR wrote:

It would also be grand for Ritz to have one healthy season to see if he can be a 13:10/27:00 min guy

did ritz get injured much in high school too?

prs come with great races wrote:

If Rupp goes to Europe for a good 5K and a good 10K next summer, ...

Is he even fast enough to get invited to a big Euro race?