a miler wrote:
To all the people who are starting to pick Oklahoma State for the win, can you provide some kind of feasable breakdown for this to happen? For example who from Oak St. can beat who from Oregon? Because right now I'm not convinced that Oregon couldn't go 1-2 on German, possibly even 1-2-3 if Shadrack can race to potential.
I don't think it will make much different whether Shadrack beats German or not. It will be decided by their #4 & 5 runners.
01. 28:48 Galen Rupp, Oregon, 1st PAC 10, 27:41 1st West (2, 29:23)
02. 29:18 German Fernandez, OK State, 1st Big 12 , 31:20 5th Midwest
03. 29:18 Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott, Oregon, 5th PAC 10, 28:32 2nd West
09. 29:45 John Kosgei, OK State, 3rd Big 12, 31:19 3rd Midwest
10. 29:45 Ryan Vail, OK State, 4th Big 12, 31:20 6th Midwest (11, 29:57)
14. 29:58 Luke Puskedra, Oregon, 2nd PAC 10, 28:45 6th West
19. 30:06 David Chirchir, OK State, 13th Big 12, 31:20 7th Midwest (21, 30:19)
23. 30:13 Matt Centrowitz, Oregon, 11th PAC 10
34. 30:24 Colby Lowe, OK State, 5th Big 12
40. 30:32 Kenny Klotz, Oregon, 29:28 14th West (37, 30:35)
41. 30:35 Diego Mercado, Oregon, 29:29 15th West (30, 30:26)
48. 30:41 Andrew Wheating, Oregon, 9th PAC 10 (or Curtis Suver 29:38 19th West)
68. 30:48 Daniel Watts, OK State (53, 30:43)
69. 30:48 Matt Barnes-Smith, OK State 31:50 21st Midwest (60, 30:44)
01 OK State 2+9+10+19+34 = 73
02 Oregon 1+3+14+23+40 = 81
I moved up Centrowitz, though it could just as well be Klotz or Mercado or Wheating, to perform much better than previous races, while I think 34th for Lowe is fairly conservative. But let's say Shadrack beats German (Chelanga doesn't matter as he's not a team scorer). I'm not changing Kosgei, Vail or Chirchir because if anything, Chirchir could place higher. Let's move Centrowitz to 20th, and Klotz or Mercado (both of whom have not been looking that great) up to 37th.
OK State 3+9+10+19+34 = 74
Oregon 1+2+14+20+37 = 74
It's going to be a good, close race.