Rupp vs. Chelanga Strategy

I'm sorry but you dont know very much about realistic pacing. Once you get to the point where they are at, the game changes alot. You're taking these huge chunks going from 28:30, to 28:15, to 28:00 so dont be so shocked when someone tears you down on your "analysis". This is not track, and the last guy to run under 29:00 for XC was Boaz who made the Kenyan indoor team for the 3K the next year. You dont seem to get how good sub 29:00 is, and you just jump to 28:00 saying he will crush Rupp by 30 seconds. Both of these guys, Rupp and Chelanga are capable of running under 29 for nationals and it may end up being an all out burner like last year with McDougal. I hope it is!

HAHAHHAA wrote:

WHO CARES, Youth Wonder German Fernandez will beat them both!

i think it will be that cutie, dekker, from tulsa.

Yeah, I've thought a little more about this and concede you're right. 28:30 absolute tops, and to do that everything has to come together — weather, comp, training, etc. That's going through 8K 3 seconds faster than he did at Pre Nats. But if he and Rupp hook up midrace, maybe will get a "run for the ages."

I've calmed down now.

"we'll"

CAN YOU SMELLLL WHAT DA ROCK COOKIN UP EH?

Why does ANYONE think Rupp is best served to spot Chelanga any ground? Rupp is coming off a successful Olympic 10K final where he was the top non-African, was with the lead pack through over half of the race and ran 27:36. I'm not claiming Rupp is a lock to win in three weeks but there's no way he should or will spot anyone any ground at the NCAA level. He's obviously VERY fit right now given the Pac-10 result - not to mention doing 24 laps of 40/30's. This is Rupp's race to win or lose, period.

While I agree that German is the 3rd best NCAA runner right now, I would be surprised if he finishes that high. The OSU goal this year is to win the team race and I think their top 4-6 will run in a pack for at least 7k-ish, moving together. While German could finish higher individually by abandoning the Cowboy pack, Smith thinks it's too big a risk to let German go because if German blows up, the team's chances are all but lost. So my prediction is a respectable 7th place finish.

In a way I wish German was on a weaker team so that we could see what kind of race he can run when he's really racing. So far everything's been very controlled. I think he'd run shoulder to shoulder with Rupp for as long as he could and I think: a) he'd last longer than most would expect (more than 8k, maybe the whole race); and b) he'd help Rupp because they would essentially be working together to catch a front-running Chelanga.

dnixon wrote:

Yeah, I've thought a little more about this and concede you're right. 28:30 absolute tops, and to do that everything has to come together — weather, comp, training, etc. That's going through 8K 3 seconds faster than he did at Pre Nats. But if he and Rupp hook up midrace, maybe will get a "run for the ages."

I've calmed down now.

yeah now you're being reasonable

A lot of people seem to be talking like Chelenga is going to run 3:47 for the first mile or something. His winning time at pre-nats indicates he's in great shape but it doesn't indicate anything super-human.

As others have said, Rupp has recently shown an ability to hang with the best in the world (not to say he can run world-leading times, but he can at least go out with the leaders) so why shouldn't he be able to go out with Chelenga? Rupp doesn't need any special strategy in the race other than to run smart and run hard. It should be a great race.

No, he's not going to go out in 3:47, but he may open the first kilometer in 4:30 (a tick over 4:01 pace) again. And there lies the question: if he does so, should Rupp, who has never run sub 4:00 in his life, go with him or give him a little rope before trying to reel him back in? My point is that GR tends to run well off very even pace.

Don't know about the pace for the Beijing 10K. Yes 27:37 in those conditions is fast and he beat some damn good folks, so we could argue he should go right with SC, but did Rupp run pretty even splits at the Olympics or was it (for him, not others) a race of surges?

Purely hypothetical of course, but if you were designated his coach for the NCAA Nats and he had to follow your instructions to a "T", would you tell him to stay with SC like white on rice or tell him to hang back some for the first 2k or so. Others care to weigh in?

About Rupp never having run sub 4, I'm just wondering when the last time he even ran a mile or 1500. I remember he came close to 4 flat in high school, and I find it hard to believe he couldn't go sub 4 if he tried it.

I'd tell him to hang on like black on coal.

Rupp ran a mile at a meet at Hayward this spring, don't remember the time, but it was over 4.

dnixon wrote:

No, he's not going to go out in 3:47, but he may open the first kilometer in 4:30 (a tick over 4:01 pace) again. And there lies the question: if he does so, should Rupp, who has never run sub 4:00 in his life, go with him or give him a little rope before trying to reel him back in?

Yeah this is a fascinating question to me. Basically, if Chelanga goes out in 2 freakin 30 for the first K, what happens? I think Rupp would be insane to go with him at that pace, even factoring in the downhill. Why would he? I mean, I don't see Rupp standing on the starting line saying in his head "I know this is a 10k but as soon as the gun goes off I'm gonna start sprinting because I can't let him get even a step on me."

It seems far more likely to me that if Chelanga does start in the 2:30 range that Rupp will be a few ticks off him, track him rather closely, and be on his hip by 3k or 4k.

Regardless of whether or not that happens, what seems LEAST likely to me is that Chelanga starts fast, Rupp ends up 5-10 seconds behind him, and they remain that way for the bulk of the race. No way. They are gonna be dueling it out during the middle of the race. I could see either of them winning by a big margin, but above all else I see them running neck and neck from 6-8k, with nobody else in contention.

Cross Country has made a fool of me before, though...

Rupp is clearly better then last year, and Chelanga is waaay better then last year. Throw in the fast freshman and a few fast kenyans and we have a hell of a race! I doubt the first k will be in 2:30 again, but anything over 2:35 will not feel that fast to Chelanga after what he did at prenats. But if it comes down to the last 400m, I think Rupp will win-he has more to prove then Chelanga and he seems to have the speed to do it.

Honestly, a huge part of me wonders whether Chelanga peaked too early. No facts to base that off of, just a hunch.

fUrCeOsNhN wrote:

Honestly, a huge part of me wonders whether Chelanga peaked too early. No facts to base that off of, just a hunch.

Yeah this has been in the back of my mind too. I just remember the years where McDougal looked unbeatable at Pre-nats and then looked like a shadow of himself at nationals. Chelanga's performance at Prenats was so impressive it almost seems unbelievable that he was 40 days away from his peak. But who knows, I don't have anything to base it off of either.

i don't know about chelenga, but if the footing sucks i don't think it will help rupp. if it is decent rupp will be a tough mofo to beat.

It could be that he peaked, but he wouldn't know it, so he'll still go out fast. (Which means that Rupp has to commit or let him go.)

Keep in mind that McDougal did win the whole thing in his last go, and he said it was because, in contrast to previous years, he maintained his mileage right up to the end. He said in a post-race interview that he ran approx. 110 miles the week before Nats. Maybe some people just don't do well off a long taper. If he's one of them, then maybe he never really peaked early in the 2 previous years but instead got the taper all wrong.

troll alert wrote:

About Rupp never having run sub 4, I'm just wondering when the last time he even ran a mile or 1500. I remember he came close to 4 flat in high school, and I find it hard to believe he couldn't go sub 4 if he tried it.

he actually ran quite a few 1500/mile races last year and came up short every time