If you were to have every single person (trained runners and non-runners alike) in the United States run a mile on a track right now, what percentage of the population do you think could run a sub-5minute mile??? Would you say less than 1%?
If you were to have every single person (trained runners and non-runners alike) in the United States run a mile on a track right now, what percentage of the population do you think could run a sub-5minute mile??? Would you say less than 1%?
Less than 1 percent.
I'd say FAR less than one percent. One percent would be about 3 million. I'd be surprised if even 500,000 people could do it.
Especially because breaking 5 for a female is quite an accomplishment... that eliminates basically half the population, including serious runners, right there.
Nope. 5 minute milers can do a 17 handle on the 5k.
the answer is closer to 0.02-0.05%.
I would think 0.05-0.1%
Probably 1% of the whole population could break 6
Is this going to be a staggered start?
subfive wrote:
If you were to have every single person (trained runners and non-runners alike) in the United States run a mile on a track right now
The county in California in which I live has a population of 250,000 and is very active and outdoor oriented, we also have a very high percentage of joggers and hardcore runners.
Of those 250,000 people I'd say no more than 500 could step on a track today and run a sub-five minute mile. This includes:
Hardcore runners (high school, college and open/master competitive): 150
(11 high schools), one small college and one community college )
Hardcore soccer players, other high school and college athletes: 100
Freaks of nature: 50
Other: 200 (High estimate)
I would be shocked if ten females in the county could break five minutes and remember, more than half the population is female. We have a great masters running scene, but probably no more than forty male masters in the county could break five and now master females.
So 500 out of 250,000 is 0.2% or 1 out of every 500 people. I think this is probably high and may me as low as 1 out of every 1000 people or 0.1%.
I'd guess somewhere between .2 and .5% (1 out of every 200-500 people). Obviously mostly these will be high school and college runners, or post-collegiates.
Before I was a serious runner I could break 5:00 comfortably on general fitness, so there will be some in this category, especially HS and college guys who play other sports. However, I really don't think I could right now, even getting under 5:30 would be surprising (though I can get into shape pretty quick, after a 10wk comeback last spring got down to 175lb and ran a 4:11 1500m haha).
I think some of these guesses are way too optimistic. Given the aging of society, obesity, and the fact that 50% are women, I'd say more like 1 out of every 2,500+ people.
For example, I'm the most fit person I deal with on a semi-regular basis. I'm 33, run 55 - 60 MPW, and am in 17:xx 5k shape. I would give myself only a 10% chance of breaking 5:00 right now. Some of you younger guys roll with a very small percentage of the population -- almost no one in the over-30 crowd is breaking 5:00...
Of the 303,920,396 (as of 4/23/09 17:18 GMT) people residing in the United States.
Only 93,177 can currently run a mile in under 5 minutes. This is about 0.03% of the population.
This is down from 0.04% of the population just 10 years ago. Most of the losses have come from the 16-24 year old age group.
This has been a public service announcement from the "Guy With A Crystal Ball"
someone wrote:
Is this going to be a staggered start?
subfive wrote:If you were to have every single person (trained runners and non-runners alike) in the United States run a mile on a track right now
made me laugh... great mental image...
Yes I agree with this, of the people I deal with regularly I am the fittest one I know and I am right on the edge of a 5 minute mileJust as an example, I am the fastest person at my company (i have done corporate race events, etc.) by far. The company has 300 (relatively young) people in it. My guess would be somewhere between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 2500.
LVD wrote:
I think some of these guesses are way too optimistic. Given the aging of society, obesity, and the fact that 50% are women, I'd say more like 1 out of every 2,500+ people.
For example, I'm the most fit person I deal with on a semi-regular basis. I'm 33, run 55 - 60 MPW, and am in 17:xx 5k shape. I would give myself only a 10% chance of breaking 5:00 right now. Some of you younger guys roll with a very small percentage of the population -- almost no one in the over-30 crowd is breaking 5:00...
Well it was easy when I was 18.
Now i'm 32 and a 5:30 takes some effort.
(I only run about 10 miles per week though)
After school, the real question is this:
If a warhead was going off in your city and you had 5:00 to get a mile farther away, Assuming good terrain, and you can't drive bc the roads are clogged up, can't find a bike etc, could you make it?
For the sake of the survival of humanity, you'd have to leave everyone else behind.
I'd like to think I could make it on adrenaline.
cifey wrote:
Well it was easy when I was 18.
Now i'm 32 and a 5:30 takes some effort.
(I only run about 10 miles per week though)
After school, the real question is this:
If a warhead was going off in your city and you had 5:00 to get a mile farther away, Assuming good terrain, and you can't drive bc the roads are clogged up, can't find a bike etc, could you make it?
For the sake of the survival of humanity, you'd have to leave everyone else behind.
I'd like to think I could make it on adrenaline.
Considering I ran 26:36 or was it 26:26 for 4 miles I don't think I could break 5 right now. But then again I couldn't do it until I was a senior in high school. I think the number is way less than what most of you are estimating.
I thought this was going to be how many can break 5 hours in a marathon. I say less than 10%. Defined as right now. People cannot train. They must race the marathon today in their current condition.
Warrior Mentality wrote:
I thought this was going to be how many can break 5 hours in a marathon. I say less than 10%. Defined as right now. People cannot train. They must race the marathon today in their current condition.
You think less than 10%? Really? In this country?
Yes, I think it is safe to assume that less than 30 million Americans could break 5 hours in a marathon right now. I doubt there are 30 million Americans that can see their own genitalia when they use the bathroom.
Funniest post I've seen on here in a long time.
LVD wrote:
Yes, I think it is safe to assume that less than 30 million Americans could break 5 hours in a marathon right now. I doubt there are 30 million Americans that can see their own genitalia when they use the bathroom.