Who would win this triathlon: Lance Armstrong, Alan Webb, or Michael Phelps?

Lance, then Webb, then Phelps. Lance was a competitive triathlete before he focused on just the cycling, and Webb was a swimmer before he became a runner. Unless Phelps has a running and/or biking background that I am unaware of, that's my order.

Not Webb

I'd say pre-cancer Armstrong, but after cancer...

He doesn't really have much arm strength and it's been a loong time since he swam.

MOTTRAM WOULD THRASH THEM ALL

The Flash

if you can bike and run in the specially-designed speedo we approved, then Phelps is the winner.

Lance would win. He's got the dope.

Running is the hardest part, Webb has that down and would kick their butts by 2 minutes in the 5k at least. Not only that, but he was a competitive swimmer in highschool. Phelps is a bit too big to be a 5k runner. Webb, Lance, Phelps

Predictions for swim:

Phelps: 7-8 minutes

Webb: 12-14 minutes

Armstrong: 15-18 minutes

Predictions for bike:

Phelps: 28-32 minutes

Webb: 28-32 minutes

Armstrong: 20-22 minutes

Predictions for run:

Phelps: 20-22 minutes

Webb: 15-17 minutes

Armstrong: 17-19 minutes

Total Transition Times:

Phelps: 2-3 minutes

Webb: 2-3 minutes

Armstrong: 1 minutes

Total Predicted Times:

Phelps: 57-65 minutes

Webb: 57-66 minutes

Armstrong: 53-60 minutes

I am giving the edge Armstrong, and a good duel for Webb and Phelps. Armstrong has triathlon experience, so he will do much better in the transitions and the run. If you arent used to it, the second run will kill you, which is why the times are so slow for webb.

Just my two cents.

after the water

1. phelps

2. armstrong

3. webb

after the bike

1. armstrong

2. phelps

3. webb

finish

1. armstrong

2. webb

3. phelps

Haven't we been over this enough times? Lance was a pro triathlete so what do you think?

runnar wrote:

Predictions for swim:

Phelps: 7-8 minutes

Webb: 12-14 minutes

Armstrong: 15-18 minutes

Predictions for bike:

Phelps: 28-32 minutes

Webb: 28-32 minutes

Armstrong: 20-22 minutes

Predictions for run:

Phelps: 20-22 minutes

Webb: 15-17 minutes

Armstrong: 17-19 minutes

I truly don't know what to say about this. Webb 15-17 minutes for 5k and Armstrong 17-19 minutes? So if Webb had a bad day Armstrong would be near a 13:XX 5k runner? Seriously?

Absurd.

Phelps, an athlete of the highest level can't string together three 6 minute miles after a swim and 10 mile bike? You give too much credit to running. I ran the last 5k of a tri in 17:03 and I suck.

runnar wrote:

If you arent used to it, the second run will kill you,

Haha, triathlon not duathlon there Andy...

I think 17min 5k is maybe a little quick for Lance at the end of a sprint tri (can we make it an actual sprint tri, and change it to a 20k ride?) Lance fresh probably runs an all-out 5k on the track in the low-16's. Having the most endurance of the three (at least he used to) I'd give him probably 18-19, leaning more towards the 18 mark. I don't see Webb going any slower than high-15's though, and I imagine Phelps fresh runs in the 17-17:30 range, and after biking he probably will add a couple minutes to that. Fastest I see him going is low-19's, and I agree that a time in the 21 minute range is entirely possible depending upon how much energy he spends on the bike and how hard he goes out in the 5k. I'm not much on swimming or biking times but I know you know your stuff about bikes, and the gaps in the swim seem plausible.

I'd predict that Lance and Phelps finish the bike leg fairly close to each other, but Lance gets out of the transition a little before him (with Webb 3-5 minutes back) and Phelps expends too much energy trying to make up the ground on Lance. Webb catches a badly locked up Phelps in the final half mile, and no way does Phelps outkick him. If the running and swimming legs were switched I'd probably go with Phelps with similar reasoning.

About ten years ago, Swedish television has a so-called superstar competition, where top athletes competed against each other in different events. One of them was a very short triathlon and world class swimmer Louise Carlsson was dead last. She absolutely sucked at biking and swimming. Remember that swimmers are very heavy compared to cyclists and distance runners.

I can do a 10 mile bike time trial in under 24 minutes on a good day. I know it's the middle of a triathlon and neither Webb nor Phelps are cyclists, but I don't think they'd be that far behind me. I'd predict about 25-26, if not faster. Depending on the course, Armstrong (mind if I call all three of them by last name to be consistent?) could do 10 miles in 18-19 minutes. I'd only add about a minute to that to estimate his time in a triathlon.

Also, I'm not that much of a runner, but if I can go sub 20:00 in a 5k tempo, why couldn't Phelps do it finishing a triathlon?

Wasn't this discussion done years ago?

lance by far... his current training consists of swimming/biking/running.

and don't forget... he was the national champion at 18 or 19, right?

Here are the results from the 2004 Olympic triathlon:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triathlon_at_the_2004_Summer_Olympics

The winning time was 1:51:07.73. For the winner the swim took a mere 18:19, the bike took 1:00:44 and the run was 32:04. It looks like transitions are included in these splits since they add up to the winning time.

Look how much the triathlon favors the bike. Time-wise it accounted for 55% of the race, while swimming was 16% of the race, and running was 29% of the race. Obviously these percentages will vary from athlete to athlete, but this is a fine example that shows how important each event is in the triathlon.

Lance's specialty is more than half the race. He will easily win.

On the flip side, Michael Phelps's specialty is 16% of the race. Actually, for him it would be even less because his swim time would be faster but his overall time would be slower. Maybe something like 16 minutes on the swim and a total time of 2:30 - at that point 90% of Phelps's race is biking and running.

Lance, only because the bike is the longest stage. Lance would only be on the bike for like 20 minute, where the other two would take closer to 30. With a 10 minute gap, it would be difficult for AW to catch him on the run. The swimming would most likely not be a factor since it is only 800 meters. MP might get out earlier, but we are only talking about swimming for 10 minutes, so there is not enough time to make a significant dent.

Now, if you change the distances up, it may be different.

Actually, the only way AW has a chance is if the run is significantly longer than the bike, say a 10 mile bike and a 10km run. Then, he MIGHT have a chance.