not JUST a predict my 5k

chi wrote:

we did 3x200, 6x1k, 3x200 all with 1:1 rest (200s on track and 1ks on xc course)

i went 31,34,33...3:26, 3:32, 3:33 (i was told that i could either do 3 or 4 at the beginning, and i felt like crap through 3 but i was told to just jog the last one to get more time on my feet) 3:50, 32, 32,30...

i am gonna say 18:30 but i even doubt that

sounds about right, maybe a little faster. When I was coming back from time off, I did a session of 3x1k with about equal rest. I would fire one off every 7 minutes. I hit 3:24, 3:19, and 3:26... I burnt myself on that second one. Goal pace was 3:22. I did no 200s, and am guessing that I was doing much less mileage than you are. Over the next few weeks, I ran 14:28 for 4k on a medium to easy xc course, 17:55 for 5k on pretty flat roads, and 14:18 on that same xc course. All these were done in hot weather, days where it was 95 in the heat of the day, and probably 85ish at race time.

My session was a little stronger than yours, but probably on an easier loop, and also less volume, which I know would have helped me on that 5k. So I think good conditions on that 5k would see you at least 18:15 or better.

Who knows though. After that 'season' I took two weeks off, like I always did, then when I started running easy again, I decided to do a 2mile road race about 3 weeks later. So instead of building slowly, I gave myself a cram session of 2mile training for two weeks. I jumped into some long tempo runs and and started doing those 1k sessions again, along with some 300s. Ran my last one (on a hot day again) in 3:19, 3:17, 3:17 with a shortened rest this time (fired them off every 6 minutes instead of 7 this time).

Race day came (with a sudden 25 degree temperature drop) and I ran 10:40, which is certainly worth more than my 4ks and 5ks had been. I attribute it to having needed the two weeks rest, and to the cooler weather.

bump

With these PRs, your endurance sucks something hairy. I say you go 18:05.

chi wrote:

prs go 2:00 800, 4:39 mile, 17:40 5k, 28:55 8k, 36:50 10k, 56:10 15k

I'm thinking you'll hit the first mile or two hard, but then crap out down the homestretch...a solid 27:00 (maybe you'll squeak under 27:00 if you lose that last 6 or 7 pounds that have been holding you back).

You were running 80mpw but have have only run 17:40????!!!!

i only hit 80mpw this summer, and that wast average milage, it was peak

i ran a 1740 last summer of 65mpw in doubles peak during summer base training

i havent pr this seaosn bc ive been hurt

so i just did a 20min tempo going straight into 500, 300, 200 on a grass field with 200m jog recovery at 5k, mile, mile pace and it actually felt pretty strong...

i may actually surprise myself

i say u just barely break 19, and u should be happy with that time considering your prs and current shape