I'm running the Steamtown Marathon next week and would like some help coming up with a race plan. My main problem is that I'm not sure what a reasonable goal time/pace would be based on my current fitness. I don't want to go out too hard and die, but I also don't want to sell myself short by not putting myself in the position to run to my full potential. I've heard a bunch of equations (double your half time + 10 minutes, 20 sec slower per mile than half pace) but am looking for a more personalized prediction based on my PRs, training, and the Steamtown course. Here's some background info...
I'm a 26-year-old female and ran my first marathon in the spring of '06 (Frederick-2:58). Since then I've become a little more serious about training, averaging 65-70 mpw. I PR'ed in the 10k (35:28) and 10 mile (59:40) this spring. In preparation for Steamtown I did 5 x 20 milers but, unfortunately, very few workouts. I did the Parks Half-Marathon in Bethesda, MD last weekend in 1:20:21.
Since Steamtown is supposed to be downhill in the first half I was planning on going out in 1:23. Do you think this is too fast? Any input would be appreciated.
Thanks in advance.