Recent posters mentioned Alan Webb's 3:51 at Drake Relays at the end of April, and subsequent 3 months of best-in-the-world racing, as indications that he "peaked too soon." Watching his semifinal, where he went from 12th the 5th on the last lap, then watching the final, where he went from 2nd to 8th over the last 120 meters, suggests this might be so.
Maybe Webb's training this spring and summer was so geared to 800m -1,500m racing that he lost some speed endurance along the way. Maybe, in retrospect, Webb did manage to keep his 1500m "peak" for 3 months, but with the World Championships at the end of August instead of the beginning, he may have lost that final last gear that allowed him to sprint away from Lagat and everyone else at the Reebok meet and USATFs back in June.
However, Webb did scratch from a race in London in early August with reported leg soreness following his 1:43+ 800m. Then, we all learned just a few days ago that his opening round race came one day after completing a regime of antibiotics to treat a "head cold." If he and the doctors felt the need for antibiotics, I suspect he had more than just a runny nose and watery eyes.
So, this is what I think. If Webb does real well -- has his finishing kick back -- at Weltklasse and ISTAF the next two weeks, then I am inclined to believe that his World Championship form was compromised by temporary health issues. In other words, Webb was just a victim of bad luck at a bad time.
However, if his racing is still suffering, then I am in the "peaked too early" camp which would suggest that Webb and coach Razco need to go back to the drawing board and refine their 2008 training cycles to be better prepared for Bejing -- like Lagat was prepared for Osaka. Remember, Lagat took his lumps all through spring and summer, even losing to Manzano at USATFs. (Was the WC's 1500m final Bernard's first win this outdoor season?)
Regardless of how September plays out, here is one huge positive for Webb: he was healthy - or nearly so -- all year. Not like last year when he was anaemic, and not like in years past such as when he had injury problems at Michigan and a burst appendix a year or two later which sidelined him for a summer.
With his 1:43 and 3:46 AR, and of course the A standard for next year, there are no reasons for Webb to chase times over the next 11 1/2 months. Just training, daily therapy and rejuvenation, maybe limited travel to reduce the chances for illness, and selective racing to be at his optimal best in Bejing.
Alani