Joseph McVeigh wrote:
Climate? In 1996, the women's trial was warmer than normal for Charleston, and there was one big surprise (Spangler) and two prerace favorites (Lauck, Somers). The men's trial was freezing and the team was composed of prerace favorites (Kempainen, Coogan, Brantly).
In 2000 Charleston was hot and an Alaskan (Clark) won and PR'd in the OG, a respectable 2:31. Pittsburgh was broiling and the leading prerace favorite (DeHaven) won.
In cold weather trials in 2004, both teams (DeReuck- Kastor-Rhines and Culpepper-Keflezighi-Browne) were the clear class of the lot going in.
Generally speaking, the best rise to the top.
true, but i'd have to strongly disagree with your analysis of both the men's and women's trials for 2000. clark was a virtual unknown; lauck et.al. were the class of the field and got creamed in the heat. de haven was among the favorites but by no means the leading favorite; several others came in with better PRs, including the AR holder at the time, david morris; and joe lemay. in fact there was a big to-do after that race since several other guys had the A standard (i think there were 3 guys, none of them dehaven) who claimed that they deserved a spot on the team.
so, in the cold weather of '96 and '04 the races went to form. in the heat in '00 they did not. holding the trials at a date near the games (i.e. not november) and in a climate approximating that expected at the games gives you the best chance of getting your best team to the olympics.