Kenyans have their work cut out after Ethiopia named a formidable Paris Olympic marathon team that includes veteran Kenenisa Bekele and world record holder Tigist Assefa.
It is now Mutiso, Bekele, Kipchoge, Lemma, Kipruto, Tola all in the mix. I am guessing them to finish in this order. Place your bets on the first six here
Bekele defeated Kipchoge in the 2004 (where he lost to el g) and 2008 Olympic 5000 and has a 20141 marathon pr. Kipchoge has a 20109 marathon pr and ran sub 2 in unsanctioned competition. Bekele has the better xc record.
This is all true. But my guess is that 2024 Paris will be last and most important match up between the two. (London next year or Berlin won't be the same as Olympics)
Maybe. Would the loser want to continue four more years for another chance at olympic gold?
At the very least I think both will take another stab at the world record but that doesn't mean they'll go head to head again.
Given both are past their prime there is a real chance neither is a medal threat or either one could end up way back, outside the top 10 which would mean that earlier competitions were much more important than this race during the wane of their careers. There is a real possibility that despite his recent 204, Bekele is nowhere near medaling. Even Kipchoge could be outside the medals, though that seems less likely.
It's interesting that this last big matchup could actually be a significant distinction between who is more GOATly. If Bekele were to somehow win gold, it would solidify him as the best distance runner of all time having multiple of the fastest times ever in the 5,000m/10,000m/marathon and gold medals from 3 olympics. Same for Kipchoge, this would be 3 olympics with a gold medal, plus his world gold over 2 decades ago. But I think it's more likely that neither of them win, the other 4 are younger and too close that the odds are one of them will have a top level type of day for themselves.
Yeah, while I HOPE that one of them will win and both will be in contention for the whole race, I think we will finally get the definitive changing of the guard in August, which we never got to see in a race between Kipchoge and Kiptum. Bekele and Kipchoge may be able to keep competing for another year or so after the Olympics and can make money by being in the top 10 in races, but I don't think they'll be able to threaten the world record or win a major against a good field.
This is all true. But my guess is that 2024 Paris will be last and most important match up between the two. (London next year or Berlin won't be the same as Olympics)
Maybe. Would the loser want to continue four more years for another chance at olympic gold?
At the very least I think both will take another stab at the world record but that doesn't mean they'll go head to head again.
Given both are past their prime there is a real chance neither is a medal threat or either one could end up way back, outside the top 10 which would mean that earlier competitions were much more important than this race during the wane of their careers. There is a real possibility that despite his recent 204, Bekele is nowhere near medaling. Even Kipchoge could be outside the medals, though that seems less likely.
The odds are against both of them having good races. Kipchoge ran poorly, for him, at both Boston and Tokyo and over the years, Bekele has had some less than stellar results, including some DNFs. You are correct in that they’re both are past their prime and no one past their prime is going to challenge Kiptum’s record.
As far as the Olympics go, this is likely to be their last hurrah. Them still being world class in 4 years is a pipe dream.
It's interesting that this last big matchup could actually be a significant distinction between who is more GOATly. If Bekele were to somehow win gold, it would solidify him as the best distance runner of all time having multiple of the fastest times ever in the 5,000m/10,000m/marathon and gold medals from 3 olympics. Same for Kipchoge, this would be 3 olympics with a gold medal, plus his world gold over 2 decades ago. But I think it's more likely that neither of them win, the other 4 are younger and too close that the odds are one of them will have a top level type of day for themselves.
No matter what happens in this race, there's no doubt that Bekele is the GOAT distance runner. No one else is even close when you stack up all the accolades.
It is now Mutiso, Bekele, Kipchoge, Lemma, Kipruto, Tola all in the mix. I am guessing them to finish in this order. Place your bets on the first six here