Just curious where I could be for Sophomore XC next year

High School Running Distance

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 2:12am EDT

I am planning on building up from 40mpw this summer which is more than my 15mpw for XC and 10mpw for track, if I ran 19:25 for a 5K during XC and I am in about 5:10 shape right now in the middle of Track (only had 1 race with ideal weather), where could I be estimated for next Cross Country season?

And yes, I do know that mileage and previous performances are not the most accurate metric for future performances but I am just curious where I could be. I heard of people never improving on their freshman time and some that improved by like a whole minute

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 2:38am EDT

re: 2 minute miler

I think you could be in the 18.30 range

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 1:10pm EDT

re: 2 minute miler

flat course I could see you around 16:45

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 1:14pm EDT

re: 2 minute miler

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 1:33pm EDT

re: 2 minute miler

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 1:41pm EDT

re: 2 minute miler

2 minute miler wrote:
I am planning on building up from 40mpw this summer which is more than my 15mpw for XC and 10mpw for track, if I ran 19:25 for a 5K during XC and I am in about 5:10 shape right now in the middle of Track (only had 1 race with ideal weather), where could I be estimated for next Cross Country season?
And yes, I do know that mileage and previous performances are not the most accurate metric for future performances but I am just curious where I could be. I heard of people never improving on their freshman time and some that improved by like a whole minute

Almost all people improve on their freshman time.

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 1:51pm EDT

re: 2 minute miler

Your 1600 seems way better than your 5K. I'd say at this moment you're already at 18 minute 5K just from the last 6 months of improvement.

Probably could break below 17 in your Sophomore year if you don't have setbacks or injuries

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 4:27pm EDT

re: Sally Vix

Sally Vix wrote:
2 minute miler wrote:
I am planning on building up from 40mpw this summer which is more than my 15mpw for XC and 10mpw for track, if I ran 19:25 for a 5K during XC and I am in about 5:10 shape right now in the middle of Track (only had 1 race with ideal weather), where could I be estimated for next Cross Country season?
And yes, I do know that mileage and previous performances are not the most accurate metric for future performances but I am just curious where I could be. I heard of people never improving on their freshman time and some that improved by like a whole minute
Almost all people improve on their freshman time.

Bold quoted above should read, "Almost all boys improve on their freshman time."

As for op, of course it depends on quite a few factors you haven't provided info for, but in general sub-18 for 5k would be a pretty conservative goal.

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 4:39pm EDT

re: confusedrunner5055

confusedrunner5055 wrote:
flat course I could see you around 16:45

That would be my guess assuming he actually can do the mileage and recover. 1-2min drops were pretty standard for freshmen as one more year of maturity and training matters a lot.

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 6:28pm EDT

re: 2 minute miler

2 minute miler wrote:
I am planning on building up from 40mpw this summer which is more than my 15mpw for XC and 10mpw for track, if I ran 19:25 for a 5K during XC and I am in about 5:10 shape right now in the middle of Track (only had 1 race with ideal weather), where could I be estimated for next Cross Country season?
And yes, I do know that mileage and previous performances are not the most accurate metric for future performances but I am just curious where I could be. I heard of people never improving on their freshman time and some that improved by like a whole minute

Early season id say mid 17s, low 18. At this stage in your HS career you gotta be patient, dont ramp up top fast or you will burn out. High 16s to low 17s is definitely possible, just stay consistent and have fun with it

2 weeks ago 04/17/2024 10:46pm EDT

re: 2 minute miler

Impossible to tell for sure, I agree with earlier posts, 5:10 mile is worth about 18:00 5k. Upping your mileage by 300% should allow you to reap some serious benefits, so sub 17 isn’t out of the question but not guaranteed.

Another thing to keep in mind, I’ve seen several freshman/sophomores decide to increase their mileage comparable to what you are planning on, and initially they might only improve a little, but with consistency by the time they get to what would be your sophomore track season they start to reap serious rewards (for you 4:30s-4:40s 1600).

2 weeks ago 04/18/2024 12:16am EDT

re: jail

Well shoot, looks like I am going to also have to train shorter distance to run from those cops

2 weeks ago 04/18/2024 12:16am EDT

re: 2 minute miler

Forgot to quote the text I was referencing, oops

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