El G was a 1500+ athlete approaching the 1500 as an aerobic event. Just look at his training for confirmation of that fact; high mileage, a ton of work around LT1-LT2. An athlete like that can get very close to their open 800 ability in a 1500 off of a slower pace. For him, the first 700 in ~1:47 was essentially 5k pace, so very slow.
He did not win that race because he had the best 800 ability, he won that race because he could come through 700 in 1:47 fully aerobically and race the last 800 at 99% of his open 800 ability. The only other person in that race who could do the same was Lagat (a later world champion at 5000 and the only person to ever close a sub-13:00 race in sub-52 seconds), which is why it came down to the line between them. At absolute peak, they were maybe 1:44 athletes, and that's a stretch. Lagat was a consistent 1:46-1:47 runner who ran the event multiple times every season in his prime, and twice ran 1:46.0 within 1 week of running 3:30 (the first time, he ran 3:30 both before and after). The day he ran 3:26, he MAY have had 1:44-high in him. El G stopped running the 800 early in his career but given how similar they were as athletes across the board, I would say it's fair to extrapolate Lagat's results to him.
Jakob is a similar athlete to both, but I would say the way he trains makes him even more like Komen than the great milers. He does even less speed work and more mileage than Lagat or El G, and runs the 5000 more than either in their 1500 primes. 3:27/12:35 seems an impossible breakdown, but then again so did 3:27/7:54 until he did it. I'd actually argue if he does run a very fast 5000, it will be faster than 12:35, given he has shown more ability at 1500/mile and 3000/2-mile than Komen (the most similar profile).
I'll also add that Josh Kerr has become far better as a 1500/mile athlete as he has shifted his secondary focus to the 3000 rather than the 800. Importantly, his close actually became better, because as his fitness went up, he was able to enter the last 800/400/200 of the race with less lactic debt (more important than his actual 800/400/200 open times).
A good post with a lot of sound reasoning. -But given the lack of certainty and facts you may (just like your opponents) be very wrong..!
Personally I don’t have a clue when it comes to El Guerrouj’s or Jakob’s real 800m potential, or the latter’s future time’s in the 5000m (not to mention 10k, half and full marathon)… But I think your reasoning about Lagat’s 800m is logical and factual (based).
800m: My guesses would be the same as yours on El Guerrouj (1.44 high at his best) and also Jakob if you got him around 1.45 high or even a little slower. But guesses are little worth if they are beaten by facts (f.ex if Salvitore’s second hand information about El Guerrouj’s 800m training times are accurate and precise, and if Jakob eventually runs a 1.44 high race). And without sufficient information we have to speculate and weigh indications (that always will be uncertain):
1. The way El Guerrouj ran his 1500m champs seems to be consistent with your 800m estimates on him.
2. Jakob ran his pb (1.46.44) in a well paced race in 2020. In 2022 he did 1.47 low (I was on the tribune) -the track is not of the best (often a little windy too), and it was an early season race (before most of his speed work). Jakob came fourth in this race -pretty close to the winner who ran 1.44 low just before, and 1.43 mid/high just after. The race was an even non-tactical one… So does this show better than 1.46.44 capacity..? -I don’t know. And Jakob himself kept on saying at the time that “I will never run 1.44“ (meaning never sub 1.45, and that he didn’t need to -being a strength based 1500m runner with no need of a fast 800m). Some time after this he changed his narrative, and claimed that he could run a very good 800m if he could have prioritised the distance. -So had he discovered some new 800m ability in him self (f.ex through new things he experienced in his training)? Or was this just a new way of expressing himself..? Conclusion: I don’t have a clue about Jakob’s future 800m time (and neither have anybody else -I guess, and nor he himself)…
3. Jakob’s best event(s): I don’t think anybody knows, neither he. Some say (with good arguments) that he is a 1500 / 3000m guy, with his best capacity in the latter, but fading a little the longer above 3k. But based on his three best 5000m races I think it’s a gross fault to estimate him to anything worse than 12.39. But I neither see any clear arguments for faster than this (based on his showings). -This doesn’t of course invalidate your “faster than 12.35”. If Jakob is as good or better in the 5k than the 3k that time is logical. But there’s simply no evidence or signs of such a good 5k capacity… (Still possible, though).
4. Jakob better the longer the distance: This is his own sayings, but with no evidence. I highly doubt he has done anything at all in his training that can prove his capacity (converting intervals with a certain rest and lactate isn’t at all the same as racing the distances). So here we are left with wild guesses. But there’s on the other hand nothing but some fluffy indications that he can’t be best in the longer events, so it seems premature to close the possibility…
5. Can Jakob run a pb in both the 1500m and 5000m in the same season? Some say no, but he (and others) has done it before, and when Wightman runs 1.43 and 7.37 in the same year this also must increase the chances of a simultaneously fast 1500m/5k if the capacity is there…(for Jakob).
My view: This season will be extremely extremely interesting. I don’t have a clue about how it will turn out (the injury makes it even more unpredictable). As a fan I hope for a positive outcome in every direction..!
What I have come to see from this site is that fans invariably overestimate the capabilities of their heroes. A runner is only ever as fast as they have run, till they run faster. That they will do so is never guaranteed.
El G was a 1500+ athlete approaching the 1500 as an aerobic event. Just look at his training for confirmation of that fact; high mileage, a ton of work around LT1-LT2. An athlete like that can get very close to their open 800 ability in a 1500 off of a slower pace. For him, the first 700 in ~1:47 was essentially 5k pace, so very slow.
He did not win that race because he had the best 800 ability, he won that race because he could come through 700 in 1:47 fully aerobically and race the last 800 at 99% of his open 800 ability. The only other person in that race who could do the same was Lagat (a later world champion at 5000 and the only person to ever close a sub-13:00 race in sub-52 seconds), which is why it came down to the line between them. At absolute peak, they were maybe 1:44 athletes, and that's a stretch. Lagat was a consistent 1:46-1:47 runner who ran the event multiple times every season in his prime, and twice ran 1:46.0 within 1 week of running 3:30 (the first time, he ran 3:30 both before and after). The day he ran 3:26, he MAY have had 1:44-high in him. El G stopped running the 800 early in his career but given how similar they were as athletes across the board, I would say it's fair to extrapolate Lagat's results to him.
Jakob is a similar athlete to both, but I would say the way he trains makes him even more like Komen than the great milers. He does even less speed work and more mileage than Lagat or El G, and runs the 5000 more than either in their 1500 primes. 3:27/12:35 seems an impossible breakdown, but then again so did 3:27/7:54 until he did it. I'd actually argue if he does run a very fast 5000, it will be faster than 12:35, given he has shown more ability at 1500/mile and 3000/2-mile than Komen (the most similar profile).
I'll also add that Josh Kerr has become far better as a 1500/mile athlete as he has shifted his secondary focus to the 3000 rather than the 800. Importantly, his close actually became better, because as his fitness went up, he was able to enter the last 800/400/200 of the race with less lactic debt (more important than his actual 800/400/200 open times).
A good post with a lot of sound reasoning. -But given the lack of certainty and facts you may (just like your opponents) be very wrong..!
Personally I don’t have a clue when it comes to El Guerrouj’s or Jakob’s real 800m potential, or the latter’s future time’s in the 5000m (not to mention 10k, half and full marathon)… But I think your reasoning about Lagat’s 800m is logical and factual (based).
800m: My guesses would be the same as yours on El Guerrouj (1.44 high at his best) and also Jakob if you got him around 1.45 high or even a little slower. But guesses are little worth if they are beaten by facts (f.ex if Salvitore’s second hand information about El Guerrouj’s 800m training times are accurate and precise, and if Jakob eventually runs a 1.44 high race). And without sufficient information we have to speculate and weigh indications (that always will be uncertain):
1. The way El Guerrouj ran his 1500m champs seems to be consistent with your 800m estimates on him.
2. Jakob ran his pb (1.46.44) in a well paced race in 2020. In 2022 he did 1.47 low (I was on the tribune) -the track is not of the best (often a little windy too), and it was an early season race (before most of his speed work). Jakob came fourth in this race -pretty close to the winner who ran 1.44 low just before, and 1.43 mid/high just after. The race was an even non-tactical one… So does this show better than 1.46.44 capacity..? -I don’t know. And Jakob himself kept on saying at the time that “I will never run 1.44“ (meaning never sub 1.45, and that he didn’t need to -being a strength based 1500m runner with no need of a fast 800m). Some time after this he changed his narrative, and claimed that he could run a very good 800m if he could have prioritised the distance. -So had he discovered some new 800m ability in him self (f.ex through new things he experienced in his training)? Or was this just a new way of expressing himself..? Conclusion: I don’t have a clue about Jakob’s future 800m time (and neither have anybody else -I guess, and nor he himself)…
3. Jakob’s best event(s): I don’t think anybody knows, neither he. Some say (with good arguments) that he is a 1500 / 3000m guy, with his best capacity in the latter, but fading a little the longer above 3k. But based on his three best 5000m races I think it’s a gross fault to estimate him to anything worse than 12.39. But I neither see any clear arguments for faster than this (based on his showings). -This doesn’t of course invalidate your “faster than 12.35”. If Jakob is as good or better in the 5k than the 3k that time is logical. But there’s simply no evidence or signs of such a good 5k capacity… (Still possible, though).
4. Jakob better the longer the distance: This is his own sayings, but with no evidence. I highly doubt he has done anything at all in his training that can prove his capacity (converting intervals with a certain rest and lactate isn’t at all the same as racing the distances). So here we are left with wild guesses. But there’s on the other hand nothing but some fluffy indications that he can’t be best in the longer events, so it seems premature to close the possibility…
5. Can Jakob run a pb in both the 1500m and 5000m in the same season? Some say no, but he (and others) has done it before, and when Wightman runs 1.43 and 7.37 in the same year this also must increase the chances of a simultaneously fast 1500m/5k if the capacity is there…(for Jakob).
My view: This season will be extremely extremely interesting. I don’t have a clue about how it will turn out (the injury makes it even more unpredictable). As a fan I hope for a positive outcome in every direction..!
His 1:47-low was a nice run but I'm wary of extrapolating gaps in early season races to gaps at peak. Everyone trains differently and the early season can be very unpredictable. Also why for Lagat I specifically only looked at 800s he ran in peak form, in August, against good competition, within 1 week of his fastest 1500 race for the season. Until Jakob runs a race like that, it is harder to speculate...but given everything he has done, everything others have done, and what he himself says, I would suspect 1:45 is his ceiling in the event with his current training plan. A bit off from Lagat/El G, but hopefully fast enough for a 1:49-low close off a 1:36 opener for a WR.
Of course it's impossible to say for sure his best event, but there are a few facts we do know. First, his training system was developed by Bakken primarily for 5000/10000 racing, not 1500. Gjert made a few modifications for the 1500 but the bulk of it is aimed at true distance running; massive volume of easy running and threshold work. Second, his greatest time performance to date came at 2 miles last season, and he has not time trialed anything longer than 2 miles since 2021, when he ran 12:48 for 5000. His 3000 PR at the time was 7:27. That would indicate ability for a 5000 time last year of approximately 12:35. Third, he has raced 1500 and 5000 at the world championships the last 2 years against excellent fields. In the 1500, his top competitors had SBs in the 3:27-3:29 range, and he finished 2nd both times, with others close behind. In the 5000, his top competitors had SBs in the 12:40-12:49 range (even better than 3:27-3:29) and he finished 1st both times, dominating one race and beating a convicted doper with 3:28/12:45 PRs to the line in the other. Last, while he has run very few races further than 5000, he is a 2-time European champion cross country at the 10k distance. Hard to say how he would compete at the world stage, but those races included a number of 27:xx and 28:xx runners, and he dominated both, so it seems fair to place his 10000 ability in the 26:xx range. He also ran 27:54 in a 10k road race in 2019, further lending credence to 26:xx predictions.
All of that indicates he is better at the 5000 than 1500. The only real question is whether his absolute peak will come at 5000 or a distance other than the 1500, the 3000 being the most likely candidate. The 10000 is possible but given he did struggle a bit at world U20 XC (12th) and the fastest 10000 ever run by a sub-1:47 800 runner was 27:04 (Lopez Lomong), I would doubt his ability to run under 26:11 (the level he can reach at 5000). There is definitely a possibility he is better at 3000 than 5000. I would say I am unconvinced solely because he has been more dominant at 5000 than 3000 against his competition, but there is definitely an argument there and I'll give you that.
As far as running 1500 and 5000 PBs in the same season, I'd argue that it's more likely than not. I mean, let's be serious, if he ran a 5000 last year at any of the 12:40ish DL races, he would have won the race and PB'd by 8+ seconds. His 1500 PB is getting very good at this point, and that could be the sticking point, but he's only 23 and I'm willing to give him some credit and say he will run another 1500 PB in his lifetime. If he does, he only has to show up for a decently fast 5000 and he'll certainly run a PB there too. Hopefully he takes a crack at both this year!
El G ran faster than jakobs 800 pr in the 2004 athens 1500m final. his last 800 was like 1:46.7. El G could have run 1:43.
El G was a 1500+ athlete approaching the 1500 as an aerobic event. Just look at his training for confirmation of that fact; high mileage, a ton of work around LT1-LT2. An athlete like that can get very close to their open 800 ability in a 1500 off of a slower pace. For him, the first 700 in ~1:47 was essentially 5k pace, so very slow.
He did not win that race because he had the best 800 ability, he won that race because he could come through 700 in 1:47 fully aerobically and race the last 800 at 99% of his open 800 ability. The only other person in that race who could do the same was Lagat (a later world champion at 5000 and the only person to ever close a sub-13:00 race in sub-52 seconds), which is why it came down to the line between them. At absolute peak, they were maybe 1:44 athletes, and that's a stretch. Lagat was a consistent 1:46-1:47 runner who ran the event multiple times every season in his prime, and twice ran 1:46.0 within 1 week of running 3:30 (the first time, he ran 3:30 both before and after). The day he ran 3:26, he MAY have had 1:44-high in him. El G stopped running the 800 early in his career but given how similar they were as athletes across the board, I would say it's fair to extrapolate Lagat's results to him.
Jakob is a similar athlete to both, but I would say the way he trains makes him even more like Komen than the great milers. He does even less speed work and more mileage than Lagat or El G, and runs the 5000 more than either in their 1500 primes. 3:27/12:35 seems an impossible breakdown, but then again so did 3:27/7:54 until he did it. I'd actually argue if he does run a very fast 5000, it will be faster than 12:35, given he has shown more ability at 1500/mile and 3000/2-mile than Komen (the most similar profile).
I'll also add that Josh Kerr has become far better as a 1500/mile athlete as he has shifted his secondary focus to the 3000 rather than the 800. Importantly, his close actually became better, because as his fitness went up, he was able to enter the last 800/400/200 of the race with less lactic debt (more important than his actual 800/400/200 open times).
A good post with a lot of sound reasoning. -But given the lack of certainty and facts you may (just like your opponents) be very wrong..!
Personally I don’t have a clue when it comes to El Guerrouj’s or Jakob’s real 800m potential, or the latter’s future time’s in the 5000m (not to mention 10k, half and full marathon)… But I think your reasoning about Lagat’s 800m is logical and factual (based).
800m: My guesses would be the same as yours on El Guerrouj (1.44 high at his best) and also Jakob if you got him around 1.45 high or even a little slower. But guesses are little worth if they are beaten by facts (f.ex if Salvitore’s second hand information about El Guerrouj’s 800m training times are accurate and precise, and if Jakob eventually runs a 1.44 high race). And without sufficient information we have to speculate and weigh indications (that always will be uncertain):
1. The way El Guerrouj ran his 1500m champs seems to be consistent with your 800m estimates on him.
2. Jakob ran his pb (1.46.44) in a well paced race in 2020. In 2022 he did 1.47 low (I was on the tribune) -the track is not of the best (often a little windy too), and it was an early season race (before most of his speed work). Jakob came fourth in this race -pretty close to the winner who ran 1.44 low just before, and 1.43 mid/high just after. The race was an even non-tactical one… So does this show better than 1.46.44 capacity..? -I don’t know. And Jakob himself kept on saying at the time that “I will never run 1.44“ (meaning never sub 1.45, and that he didn’t need to -being a strength based 1500m runner with no need of a fast 800m). Some time after this he changed his narrative, and claimed that he could run a very good 800m if he could have prioritised the distance. -So had he discovered some new 800m ability in him self (f.ex through new things he experienced in his training)? Or was this just a new way of expressing himself..? Conclusion: I don’t have a clue about Jakob’s future 800m time (and neither have anybody else -I guess, and nor he himself)…
3. Jakob’s best event(s): I don’t think anybody knows, neither he. Some say (with good arguments) that he is a 1500 / 3000m guy, with his best capacity in the latter, but fading a little the longer above 3k. But based on his three best 5000m races I think it’s a gross fault to estimate him to anything worse than 12.39. But I neither see any clear arguments for faster than this (based on his showings). -This doesn’t of course invalidate your “faster than 12.35”. If Jakob is as good or better in the 5k than the 3k that time is logical. But there’s simply no evidence or signs of such a good 5k capacity… (Still possible, though).
4. Jakob better the longer the distance: This is his own sayings, but with no evidence. I highly doubt he has done anything at all in his training that can prove his capacity (converting intervals with a certain rest and lactate isn’t at all the same as racing the distances). So here we are left with wild guesses. But there’s on the other hand nothing but some fluffy indications that he can’t be best in the longer events, so it seems premature to close the possibility…
5. Can Jakob run a pb in both the 1500m and 5000m in the same season? Some say no, but he (and others) has done it before, and when Wightman runs 1.43 and 7.37 in the same year this also must increase the chances of a simultaneously fast 1500m/5k if the capacity is there…(for Jakob).
My view: This season will be extremely extremely interesting. I don’t have a clue about how it will turn out (the injury makes it even more unpredictable). As a fan I hope for a positive outcome in every direction..!
What I have come to see from this site is that fans invariably overestimate the capabilities of their heroes. A runner is only ever as fast as they have run, till they run faster. That they will do so is never guaranteed.
While this is true, it's fun to speculate. I also think it's important to remember that nothing is impossible, only improbable. No athlete has ever run under 12:40 while also running under 3:28, but at one point no athlete had ever run under 3:28 or 12:40, period. No athlete had ever run under 3:28 and 12:50, until Jakob did it. No athlete had ever run under 3:30 in an Olympic final, until Jakob did it.
In 2021 many people were predicting Cole Hocker to be competitive at the Olympics, even though his PR of 3:35 was far slower than his competitors. Given his mile time and closing ability in his PR race, it was a logical conclusion that he was capable of faster, with most reasonable estimates in the 3:30-3:33 range. Yet there was a contrary narrative that he was a 3:35 guy, end of story, and there was no point extrapolating his potential based on his mile time or how fast he closed. Lo and behold, he ran 3:33 in the semis to make it to the final, and 3:31 in the final for 6th place.
Obviously there are no guarantees, but it is also perfectly reasonable to draw comparisons - to a runner's history, other runners, and the underlying physical demands of the sport - and logically conclude that a given runner is likely capable of a given time. As long as the underlying logic and assumptions are sound (the main issue with El G 1:42 predictions or similarly Jeremy Wariner 1:44ish predictions), the conclusion is usually proven correct in the future.
"Usually" is a bit optimistic for a mature athlete - because we are always talking about them exceeding their best. "Sometimes" may be closer to reality.
His 1:47-low was a nice run but I'm wary of extrapolating gaps in early season races to gaps at peak. Everyone trains differently and the early season can be very unpredictable. Also why for Lagat I specifically only looked at 800s he ran in peak form, in August, against good competition, within 1 week of his fastest 1500 race for the season. Until Jakob runs a race like that, it is harder to speculate...but given everything he has done, everything others have done, and what he himself says, I would suspect 1:45 is his ceiling in the event with his current training plan. A bit off from Lagat/El G, but hopefully fast enough for a 1:49-low close off a 1:36 opener for a WR.
Of course it's impossible to say for sure his best event, but there are a few facts we do know. First, his training system was developed by Bakken primarily for 5000/10000 racing, not 1500. Gjert made a few modifications for the 1500 but the bulk of it is aimed at true distance running; massive volume of easy running and threshold work. Second, his greatest time performance to date came at 2 miles last season, and he has not time trialed anything longer than 2 miles since 2021, when he ran 12:48 for 5000. His 3000 PR at the time was 7:27. That would indicate ability for a 5000 time last year of approximately 12:35. Third, he has raced 1500 and 5000 at the world championships the last 2 years against excellent fields. In the 1500, his top competitors had SBs in the 3:27-3:29 range, and he finished 2nd both times, with others close behind. In the 5000, his top competitors had SBs in the 12:40-12:49 range (even better than 3:27-3:29) and he finished 1st both times, dominating one race and beating a convicted doper with 3:28/12:45 PRs to the line in the other. Last, while he has run very few races further than 5000, he is a 2-time European champion cross country at the 10k distance. Hard to say how he would compete at the world stage, but those races included a number of 27:xx and 28:xx runners, and he dominated both, so it seems fair to place his 10000 ability in the 26:xx range. He also ran 27:54 in a 10k road race in 2019, further lending credence to 26:xx predictions.
All of that indicates he is better at the 5000 than 1500. The only real question is whether his absolute peak will come at 5000 or a distance other than the 1500, the 3000 being the most likely candidate. The 10000 is possible but given he did struggle a bit at world U20 XC (12th) and the fastest 10000 ever run by a sub-1:47 800 runner was 27:04 (Lopez Lomong), I would doubt his ability to run under 26:11 (the level he can reach at 5000). There is definitely a possibility he is better at 3000 than 5000. I would say I am unconvinced solely because he has been more dominant at 5000 than 3000 against his competition, but there is definitely an argument there and I'll give you that.
As far as running 1500 and 5000 PBs in the same season, I'd argue that it's more likely than not. I mean, let's be serious, if he ran a 5000 last year at any of the 12:40ish DL races, he would have won the race and PB'd by 8+ seconds. His 1500 PB is getting very good at this point, and that could be the sticking point, but he's only 23 and I'm willing to give him some credit and say he will run another 1500 PB in his lifetime. If he does, he only has to show up for a decently fast 5000 and he'll certainly run a PB there too. Hopefully he takes a crack at both this year!
I agree in everything you are writing here, except how you extrapolate Jakob’s 5000m potential from his 3000m (well, you might even be right there, but I’m not sure)…
Jakob did 7.27 flat in 2020, and in 2021 he did 12.48. But if we assume that a 2023 max run would have been 7.19/20, and from that draw the conclusion of 12.35, then we do 2 logical errors: 1. His improvement of 7+ sec in the 3000m isn’t real, because we have all reason to think that he would have done a 7.24 in 2021. 2. A good 3000m (improvement) doesn’t automatically mean a very good 5000m, not even with high mileage training -talent matters (I may be wrong, but didn’t Snell and Walker do high mileage; still without excellence in the longer events..?). And Jakob’s merits in the distance events are of course splendid (except U20 WC xc) - clearly indicates sub 12.40, (that would be a 9 sec improvement from 2021), but do they really with certainty suggest 12.35..?
As a fan I really hope he gets a fast 5000m in 2024. But I need to see it first… Really exciting year - maybe even the months with alternative training releases something new…!
What I have come to see from this site is that fans invariably overestimate the capabilities of their heroes. A runner is only ever as fast as they have run, till they run faster. That they will do so is never guaranteed.
Well, I think you are right. And the odds for Jakob doing the times and medals he has “promised” are of course extremely slim…
But I also think that most of us have seen something special in Jakob - a potential and a range above almost everything we have seen (well, maybe an exception for Bolt, Rudisha, Bekele and a few more). And it doesn’t even have to be about talent, but about a project unfolding steadily year after year, brick on brick…
I have followed Jakob since he was 10 years old (because I followed his older brothers). And almost the whole time I have thought of future dominance and WR’s. -Not because of the talent, but because of the sound and extremely mileage based and balanced training. It is as if Jakob had to be stellar bearing no / little injuries. And we were told he was much more resilient than his brothers (both when it comes to injuries and sickness)…
I still don’t doubt Jakob’s potential. But I also think there have been multiple larger talents than him that have failed (in getting their potential fully out). He clearly balances on a edge (injuries / sickness) - really really exciting to see how long he comes before he has to say stop..!
What I have come to see from this site is that fans invariably overestimate the capabilities of their heroes. A runner is only ever as fast as they have run, till they run faster. That they will do so is never guaranteed.
Well, I think you are right. And the odds for Jakob doing the times and medals he has “promised” are of course extremely slim…
But I also think that most of us have seen something special in Jakob - a potential and a range above almost everything we have seen (well, maybe an exception for Bolt, Rudisha, Bekele and a few more). And it doesn’t even have to be about talent, but about a project unfolding steadily year after year, brick on brick…
I have followed Jakob since he was 10 years old (because I followed his older brothers). And almost the whole time I have thought of future dominance and WR’s. -Not because of the talent, but because of the sound and extremely mileage based and balanced training. It is as if Jakob had to be stellar bearing no / little injuries. And we were told he was much more resilient than his brothers (both when it comes to injuries and sickness)…
I still don’t doubt Jakob’s potential. But I also think there have been multiple larger talents than him that have failed (in getting their potential fully out). He clearly balances on a edge (injuries / sickness) - really really exciting to see how long he comes before he has to say stop..!
I thought Ryun was going to continue to get better after he broke world records at 19 and 20. He never did.
Well, I think you are right. And the odds for Jakob doing the times and medals he has “promised” are of course extremely slim…
But I also think that most of us have seen something special in Jakob - a potential and a range above almost everything we have seen (well, maybe an exception for Bolt, Rudisha, Bekele and a few more). And it doesn’t even have to be about talent, but about a project unfolding steadily year after year, brick on brick…
I have followed Jakob since he was 10 years old (because I followed his older brothers). And almost the whole time I have thought of future dominance and WR’s. -Not because of the talent, but because of the sound and extremely mileage based and balanced training. It is as if Jakob had to be stellar bearing no / little injuries. And we were told he was much more resilient than his brothers (both when it comes to injuries and sickness)…
I still don’t doubt Jakob’s potential. But I also think there have been multiple larger talents than him that have failed (in getting their potential fully out). He clearly balances on a edge (injuries / sickness) - really really exciting to see how long he comes before he has to say stop..!
I thought Ryun was going to continue to get better after he broke world records at 19 and 20. He never did.
Yes, we know that most of your "thinking" is garbage.
I thought Ryun was going to continue to get better after he broke world records at 19 and 20. He never did.
Yes, but maybe two very different athletes (I don’t know enough about Ryun to make a fair comparison). But what about Coe for instance -he was one week shy of turning 30 when he ran his only sub 3.30 (pb’ed with almost 2.2 sec)…
In 2022 it looked as Jakob was about to fizzle out (he even himself said that he was very near his peak) -didn’t break 3.29, ran a poor mile pb, (and a weak indoors WR), was beaten by Wightman and beat an overrated field in the WC 5000m… But already in late fall he was reported to be in “monster shape” -something he kept despite being sick and injured the coming winter. So my point is: The way Jakob trains (never to hard or forced) gives a probability of much more to come. But even he can’t be too much injured or sick..!
Well, I think you are right. And the odds for Jakob doing the times and medals he has “promised” are of course extremely slim…
But I also think that most of us have seen something special in Jakob - a potential and a range above almost everything we have seen (well, maybe an exception for Bolt, Rudisha, Bekele and a few more). And it doesn’t even have to be about talent, but about a project unfolding steadily year after year, brick on brick…
I have followed Jakob since he was 10 years old (because I followed his older brothers). And almost the whole time I have thought of future dominance and WR’s. -Not because of the talent, but because of the sound and extremely mileage based and balanced training. It is as if Jakob had to be stellar bearing no / little injuries. And we were told he was much more resilient than his brothers (both when it comes to injuries and sickness)…
I still don’t doubt Jakob’s potential. But I also think there have been multiple larger talents than him that have failed (in getting their potential fully out). He clearly balances on a edge (injuries / sickness) - really really exciting to see how long he comes before he has to say stop..!
I thought Ryun was going to continue to get better after he broke world records at 19 and 20. He never did.
I thought Gebrselassie was going to continue to get better after he broke a world record at age 21. He did. He continued to set world records for another 14 years
His 1:47-low was a nice run but I'm wary of extrapolating gaps in early season races to gaps at peak. Everyone trains differently and the early season can be very unpredictable. Also why for Lagat I specifically only looked at 800s he ran in peak form, in August, against good competition, within 1 week of his fastest 1500 race for the season. Until Jakob runs a race like that, it is harder to speculate...but given everything he has done, everything others have done, and what he himself says, I would suspect 1:45 is his ceiling in the event with his current training plan. A bit off from Lagat/El G, but hopefully fast enough for a 1:49-low close off a 1:36 opener for a WR.
Of course it's impossible to say for sure his best event, but there are a few facts we do know. First, his training system was developed by Bakken primarily for 5000/10000 racing, not 1500. Gjert made a few modifications for the 1500 but the bulk of it is aimed at true distance running; massive volume of easy running and threshold work. Second, his greatest time performance to date came at 2 miles last season, and he has not time trialed anything longer than 2 miles since 2021, when he ran 12:48 for 5000. His 3000 PR at the time was 7:27. That would indicate ability for a 5000 time last year of approximately 12:35. Third, he has raced 1500 and 5000 at the world championships the last 2 years against excellent fields. In the 1500, his top competitors had SBs in the 3:27-3:29 range, and he finished 2nd both times, with others close behind. In the 5000, his top competitors had SBs in the 12:40-12:49 range (even better than 3:27-3:29) and he finished 1st both times, dominating one race and beating a convicted doper with 3:28/12:45 PRs to the line in the other. Last, while he has run very few races further than 5000, he is a 2-time European champion cross country at the 10k distance. Hard to say how he would compete at the world stage, but those races included a number of 27:xx and 28:xx runners, and he dominated both, so it seems fair to place his 10000 ability in the 26:xx range. He also ran 27:54 in a 10k road race in 2019, further lending credence to 26:xx predictions.
All of that indicates he is better at the 5000 than 1500. The only real question is whether his absolute peak will come at 5000 or a distance other than the 1500, the 3000 being the most likely candidate. The 10000 is possible but given he did struggle a bit at world U20 XC (12th) and the fastest 10000 ever run by a sub-1:47 800 runner was 27:04 (Lopez Lomong), I would doubt his ability to run under 26:11 (the level he can reach at 5000). There is definitely a possibility he is better at 3000 than 5000. I would say I am unconvinced solely because he has been more dominant at 5000 than 3000 against his competition, but there is definitely an argument there and I'll give you that.
As far as running 1500 and 5000 PBs in the same season, I'd argue that it's more likely than not. I mean, let's be serious, if he ran a 5000 last year at any of the 12:40ish DL races, he would have won the race and PB'd by 8+ seconds. His 1500 PB is getting very good at this point, and that could be the sticking point, but he's only 23 and I'm willing to give him some credit and say he will run another 1500 PB in his lifetime. If he does, he only has to show up for a decently fast 5000 and he'll certainly run a PB there too. Hopefully he takes a crack at both this year!
I agree in everything you are writing here, except how you extrapolate Jakob’s 5000m potential from his 3000m (well, you might even be right there, but I’m not sure)…
Jakob did 7.27 flat in 2020, and in 2021 he did 12.48. But if we assume that a 2023 max run would have been 7.19/20, and from that draw the conclusion of 12.35, then we do 2 logical errors: 1. His improvement of 7+ sec in the 3000m isn’t real, because we have all reason to think that he would have done a 7.24 in 2021. 2. A good 3000m (improvement) doesn’t automatically mean a very good 5000m, not even with high mileage training -talent matters (I may be wrong, but didn’t Snell and Walker do high mileage; still without excellence in the longer events..?). And Jakob’s merits in the distance events are of course splendid (except U20 WC xc) - clearly indicates sub 12.40, (that would be a 9 sec improvement from 2021), but do they really with certainty suggest 12.35..?
As a fan I really hope he gets a fast 5000m in 2024. But I need to see it first… Really exciting year - maybe even the months with alternative training releases something new…!
I'd say his 7:54 is a better indicator. And it was recent. I would be extremely baffled if a 7:54 2-miler couldn't run 12:35.
Hoped on Xiamen DL, where Kipyegon and Tsegay would compete against each other in the 1500m for the first time since 2019, if I'm right.
They would chase each other up immensely into a new world record. Now Kipyegon's not showing up, that chance is gone.
Next, and probably last stop for this two to compete against each other, will be Paris Olympics, the 1500m. The party will be complete, when Hassan would like to show up at the 1500m line.
Bet they will compete each other into stratospheric WR hights (shame there are no new foam shoes for track).
I thought Ryun was going to continue to get better after he broke world records at 19 and 20. He never did.
I thought Gebrselassie was going to continue to get better after he broke a world record at age 21. He did. He continued to set world records for another 14 years
Which shows that anything can happen in sports but nothing is assured or guaranteed. What may occur with one runner does not say it will be the same for another. If hopes and expectations are not disappointed no one - including the greats - ever loses or fails. Who was predicting Jakob would lose 3 consecutive world championship 1500 finals?
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
One or two more years of improvements and good bye 1500m and mile records (2k, 2 mile already gone), 3k too.
Past improvement is no guarantee of future improvements. There are plenty of great runners who peaked young and got no better.
I agree, but I don't think he needs to IMPROVE to run 12:35. On the day he ran the 7:54 he probably was already in 12:35 shape. Of course, he needs to actually do it but I'd argue he has been in 12:35 shape or better.
El G was a very fast runner. You need a guy with 1:42/low 1:43 speed that's a full time miler to have a shot.
Remember, the record is 3:26 flat, and at the moment nobody is getting that close.
Why is this getting so many downvotes?!
I don't think this is a bad take at all.
Firstly, can we put to bed this ridiculous idea that El Guerrouj "wasn't that fast" because his 800m "PR" was 1.47.18. That is what he ran in a competitive race in 1995 - he ran 1.46.8 for the final 800m at the end of a 3.34 race to win in Athens for one (Lagat 1.46.9). But what is more important to understand is that guys like El G did run frequent 800m efforts in order to get sharp - they just didn't do them in races. I know pro's that were in Ifran training with him that witnessed time trials with his pacing crew (he had an employed pacemaking team for training alone) where he ran well under 1.44 for 800m and actually closer to under 1.43.0 which isn't crazy - Cram ran 1.42.88 after all).
I've said this before here - there is a big difference between how an 800m is raced and how and 800m can be time-trialled in a structured fashion. El G had zero incentive to run an 800 on the circuit and hence he didn't. Neither did Lagat but if you think his limit was only 1.46.00 (his official "race" PR) you are dreaming. That came from a race in 2003 - let's see what he would have done in a time trial in 2001 when he ran 3.26.34 - I don't see any world where he couldn't have run in the low 1.44's at the absolute minimum, despite his humility when it ever came to discussing his 800m capabilities.
Let's put El G at 1.43.0 and 7.23.1 either side of his 3.26.00. This seems like the right ballpark of requisite performances for a 3.26.00. Who has this range right now? Well clearly the 3000m is what we look at because there are multiple guys around 1.43.0, and it's Jakob. And even though Jakob is also not as slow as people think (I know there are still people posting here that are convinced he can't break 1.46.0), he is probably in the 1.44 high to 1.45 low bracket over 2 laps. That's simply not enough anaerobic power to run under 3.26.00 or get close to it. I think his 1.44.8/7.21.5 mix can run 3.26.6/7, but that's still not really close if we are honest. It's an awesome time (and probably the fastest any human currently can run without special vitamins), but it's not the WR.
One other thing I find interesting with respect to J.I is how long people think his window is open to get the 1500m mark. 2026? In 2026 he is absolutely on the back end of his elite career. El G had a 5 year absolute peak where he was running under 3.27.0. Lagat a 5 year peak running under 3.29. Morceli was even less - it is hard to maintain this level of running. That doesn't mean by 2026 Jakob is washed and his career is over - it just means that while he may still be the best 1500m runner alive, he might be more of a 3.28 high/3.29 low guy. I think his window opened when ran 3.28.68 in 2020 which means that 2025 would be really close to the end of it and that just feels in line with how he would naturally progress anyway (more towards the 5000m post Paris).
I've realized recently that I have kind of underestimated this record the last 25+ years. I can't believe I had it on par with the mile which is much softer. In fact just going off the scoring tables (not definitive by any means but a decent tool to cross-compare events) it is the hardest MD record on the books - better than both the 800m (1302 v 1301) and even the 3000m which was shocking to me (1299).
As usual a thoughtful post. I, however, disagree with some of your opinions: A. I think it is a stretch to assume El-G could have run 1:43 in the 800m. I agree that he possibly could have run much faster than his official 800m PB but that he should be faster than Timothy who has a much more powerful (800m ) step seems unlikely. I would say El-G at his best could be low 1:44 whereas Jakob at this momentcould be high 1:44. But Jakob might improve his 800m ability in the coming years (more about that below).
By the way: I was an attorney for almost 45 years. I don´t think I need to tell you how much weight a judge would put on your evidence for El-G´s 1:43 potential?
B. Further I think Jakob´s 3000m ability should be set to 7:19.5 (as indicated by his 2 miles WB and especially his 2000m WR).
AND WITH JAKOB´S HIGH 1:44 - 7:19.5 COMPARED TO EL-G´S LOW 144 – 7:23 WILL YOU AGREE THAT JAKOB´S ODDS for BREAKING THE 1500M WR HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY.
Or perhaps we could make another mix: 800m to 2000m. High 1:44 – 4:43.13 for Jakob to low 1:44 - 4:44.79 for El-G.
C. I don´t think lack of ANAEROBIC POWER will prohibit Jakob from breaking the 1500m WR. The rather small improvement he needs will come with further improvement of his AEROBIC CAPACITY over the next few seasons. Remember El-G improved with almost 3 sec from age 22 to age 23.
D. I think it is difficult to predict Jakob´s window for running fast 1500m times from the examples of some few top runners of the past. Reality isn´t easy to put on aformula. I would say that the number of years a runner could be at his best mainly depends on his genes and his training. Genes because some athletes just stay fit longer than others. And training because a balanced, mostly aerobic training (like Jakob´s) everything equal gives longer durability.
Marcin Lewandowski is a good example of a runner who managed to hold a high level over a long period. At age 22 Marcin ran high 1:43 in the 800m which was his main event at the time. He ran similar times over the next many years latest at age 32. So he managed to hold peak shape for 11 seasons. And in the end of his career he further continued to improve in the 1500m with a 3:30 PB at age 34! An improvement from age 30 at more than 3.5 sec.
Earlier on many posters on this board promoted an idea that a runner (and especially Jakob) would peak after about 10 years of serious training. That theory seems to have died silently after Jakob continued to improve over the 10 years time limit. Let´s see if your theory ages better.
As pointed out by others in this thread Jakob has run fast from an early age so shouldn´t he be able run fast longer than a guy who started to run top times at a higher age.
Further: You assume that Jakob´s window opened when he ran 3:28.68 at age 19 whereas El-G´s window didn´t open before he ran 3:26.00 at age 23. Why not open Jakob´s window this year at age 23 if he runs sub 3:27 as you think he can (and I agree)?
E. As you possibly know I think Jakob – BARRING SERIOUS ILLNES AND INJURY – will improve further over the next years if he continues with his well balanced mainly aerobic training. He needs to run just below 55 per lap pace to get the 1500m WR and that will come at latest next season as he gets a bit more endurance. He is able to finish a 5000m in 52.45 so speed is not the problem; he “just” needs to maintain a slightly higher pace than he did in Silesia (0.3 sec per lap).
F. I don´t think the 1500m WR is the strongest MD WR. The 2000m WR is with 1307 IAAF ranking points to the 1500m´s 1302.