1 Gracie Hyde 9:28 and 4:08 put this under-the-radar DII steeplechaser on par with Markezich’s form this time last year. Now a legitimate contender for Paris if her current trajectory continues.
2 Colin Sahlman 3:33.96 -- splash. The much-heralded HSer suddenly enters the Nuguse/Hocker/Kessler conversation.
3 Lexy Halladay-Lowry Her overall form in multiple events wasn’t as impressive as Hyde’s, but a massive 15-sec pb makes her one of the quickest collegiate steeplers ever and secures a spot on the line at the US Oly Trials.
4 Hilda Olemomoi We knew she was rock solid, but 15:06 places the AL sophomore in the realm of all-time NCAA 5000m greats Valby, Simpson and Tuohy. Will almost certainly become the 2nd or 3rd collegian to clock 14:5X.
5 Parker Valby Valby had clearly “broken out” before this meet, but a debut 30:50 with little help and no wavelights marks the top NCAA distance runner as a favourite to represent Team USA in the 10000m this summer.
1 Gracie Hyde 9:28 and 4:08 put this under-the-radar DII steeplechaser on par with Markezich’s form this time last year. Now a legitimate contender for Paris if her current trajectory continues.
2 Colin Sahlman 3:33.96 -- splash. The much-heralded HSer suddenly enters the Nuguse/Hocker/Kessler conversation.
3 Lexy Halladay-Lowry Her overall form in multiple events wasn’t as impressive as Hyde’s, but a massive 15-sec pb makes her one of the quickest collegiate steeplers ever and secures a spot on the line at the US Oly Trials.
4 Hilda Olemomoi We knew she was rock solid, but 15:06 places the AL sophomore in the realm of all-time NCAA 5000m greats Valby, Simpson and Tuohy. Will almost certainly become the 2nd or 3rd collegian to clock 14:5X.
5 Parker Valby Valby had clearly “broken out” before this meet, but a debut 30:50 with little help and no wavelights marks the top NCAA distance runner as a favourite to represent Team USA in the 10000m this summer.
Good list. I’m a little resistant to call 5,000m of pacing “little help.” But it’s a huge mark for her and the lack of competition/wavelight in a 15:20 second half is notable!
Also maybe an HM to Anna Camp-Bennett. She had a good indoor season but she’s now definitely flashed enough ability to be in the dark horse category in the 1500. Michaela Rose solo domination and double also shows maybe shes getting to a new level.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Sahlman 3:33.9 in April in the rain. Bet there is more in June.
Agreed. Mike Smith knows how to peak his athletes correctly. Two major takeaways from that race for me:
1. Sahlman will be a legit threat for the team. Probably 3:30ish over the summer. Kessler, Hocker, Nuguse better come to play, because even if they are all in 3:26-3:28 shape, there are gonna be enough guys in 3:30-3:32 shape to cause an upset if someone falters. May seem weird to mention Nuguse there but I seriously think even he is not as comfy as he would like to be, if the race is over 3:40 it's anyone's ballgame and he's not exactly known for his tactical acumen. A 3:26 guy has lost to a 3:30 guy in a slow race before :P
2. The 3:48 altitude conversion is legit. Nico absolutely dominated Colin in that mile, and 1:48.00 has got to be the fastest open 800m time for a sub-27:00 guy I've ever seen. Like seriously, has anybody ever been faster? Farah, Kejelcha, and Geb probably had it in them but they never actually did it (Farah and Geb both gave it a good shot too). That kind of speed on a 10k guy is ridiculous. Considering I'd still bet on him to beat Colin in a 1500 head to head, it only seems fair to expect 3:30ish from him as well.
Good list. I’m a little resistant to call 5,000m of pacing “little help.”
I agree with that. 5k of pacing is a decent amount of help.
I was super I impressed with the fast 1500s in the rain. Riggins, Forester as the top collegians in 4:07.
Silan Ayyildiz running 15:15 in her first 5k.
Allyson Churchill with a huge 15:17 PR.
Also - though we didn't learn anything new about Roe, her 10k /5k workout was pretty solid, winning both of her heats and looking smooth.
Olemomoi running 15:06 was exciting and I wonder if she will beat Lemngole this season, or if Lemngole will go sub 15.
The Ayyildiz 5k surprised me. My thought was: Does this result signal a 1500m breakthrough to come? So far, she hasn't broken 4:10 and both the northeast milers and the 4:08 pack from this wkend seem to be pulling away from her. Maybe not for long.
Sahlman 3:33.9 in April in the rain. Bet there is more in June.
Agreed. Mike Smith knows how to peak his athletes correctly. Two major takeaways from that race for me:
1. Sahlman will be a legit threat for the team. Probably 3:30ish over the summer. Kessler, Hocker, Nuguse better come to play, because even if they are all in 3:26-3:28 shape, there are gonna be enough guys in 3:30-3:32 shape to cause an upset if someone falters. May seem weird to mention Nuguse there but I seriously think even he is not as comfy as he would like to be, if the race is over 3:40 it's anyone's ballgame and he's not exactly known for his tactical acumen. A 3:26 guy has lost to a 3:30 guy in a slow race before :P
2. The 3:48 altitude conversion is legit. Nico absolutely dominated Colin in that mile, and 1:48.00 has got to be the fastest open 800m time for a sub-27:00 guy I've ever seen. Like seriously, has anybody ever been faster? Farah, Kejelcha, and Geb probably had it in them but they never actually did it (Farah and Geb both gave it a good shot too). That kind of speed on a 10k guy is ridiculous. Considering I'd still bet on him to beat Colin in a 1500 head to head, it only seems fair to expect 3:30ish from him as well.
1. Sahlman isn’t beating Hocker or Nuguse. Maybe he can snipe Kessler or Teare if the former bungles his tactics or the latter can’t reach his 2022 form, but the top two are on a different level. A 3:40+ race isn’t happening. Nuguse isn’t going to hand the national title to Hocker like that.
2. Geb only ran the 800 twice in his career and Farah’s last result is from 2008, so to say either gave it a good shot isn’t really accurate. Mo was capable of 1:47 at bare minimum based on his 3:28.81, and it seems unlikely that Nico has any speed advantage over Geb who was a 3:31 guy and world indoor gold medalist. 1:48.00 is good for a 10k runner but we’re talking about two of the greatest ever here. And it’s way too early to be predicting 3:30 for Nico. He’s had an amazing year but nothing to indicate 3:30 so far.
Agreed. Mike Smith knows how to peak his athletes correctly. Two major takeaways from that race for me:
1. Sahlman will be a legit threat for the team. Probably 3:30ish over the summer. Kessler, Hocker, Nuguse better come to play, because even if they are all in 3:26-3:28 shape, there are gonna be enough guys in 3:30-3:32 shape to cause an upset if someone falters. May seem weird to mention Nuguse there but I seriously think even he is not as comfy as he would like to be, if the race is over 3:40 it's anyone's ballgame and he's not exactly known for his tactical acumen. A 3:26 guy has lost to a 3:30 guy in a slow race before :P
2. The 3:48 altitude conversion is legit. Nico absolutely dominated Colin in that mile, and 1:48.00 has got to be the fastest open 800m time for a sub-27:00 guy I've ever seen. Like seriously, has anybody ever been faster? Farah, Kejelcha, and Geb probably had it in them but they never actually did it (Farah and Geb both gave it a good shot too). That kind of speed on a 10k guy is ridiculous. Considering I'd still bet on him to beat Colin in a 1500 head to head, it only seems fair to expect 3:30ish from him as well.
1. Sahlman isn’t beating Hocker or Nuguse. Maybe he can snipe Kessler or Teare if the former bungles his tactics or the latter can’t reach his 2022 form, but the top two are on a different level. A 3:40+ race isn’t happening. Nuguse isn’t going to hand the national title to Hocker like that.
2. Geb only ran the 800 twice in his career and Farah’s last result is from 2008, so to say either gave it a good shot isn’t really accurate. Mo was capable of 1:47 at bare minimum based on his 3:28.81, and it seems unlikely that Nico has any speed advantage over Geb who was a 3:31 guy and world indoor gold medalist. 1:48.00 is good for a 10k runner but we’re talking about two of the greatest ever here. And it’s way too early to be predicting 3:30 for Nico. He’s had an amazing year but nothing to indicate 3:30 so far.
I am not the one who downvoted your post btw.
1. Not likely. Not at all likely. But possible? Definitely. Much, much stranger things have happened than a collegiate runner on the rise beating an established pre-race favorite. In fact, that's one of the most common storylines at the Trials.
2. Oh come on, Geb ran 1:50 literally 2 days before he ran that 3:31i WR. He ran the 1:49 a week after running 3:32. He was in excellent form when he ran those 800s, and Young ran more than a full second faster. They are not comparable as overall runners, but over 800 it would be very realistic to pick Young. Mo the argument is a lot stronger, he was only a 13:07 guy when he ran his 1:48, and I would bet on him at 800 in peak form. But to say that a 3:28 runner with a similar 5k/10k PB would only be ~1 second faster at 800 is a stronger argument for Nico being in 3:30-3:31 shape than it is an argument against that. Not to mention, regardless of your opinions on the veracity of altitude conversions, 3:57 at 7000 feet is incredible, and even more so for an athlete not born at altitude. He ran 4:02 previously and went on to 3:37 that outdoor season. That race, coupled with his 800/5k times this season, are certainly indicative of at least 3:32, and 3:30 being within the realm of possibility.
I get your points but I really think you are underrating 1. how good that 3:57 in Flag was, and 2. how good 1:48.00 is for a 10k runner, and especially how incredible it is to run 26:52 and 1:48 back to back.
1 Gracie Hyde 9:28 and 4:08 put this under-the-radar DII steeplechaser on par with Markezich’s form this time last year. Now a legitimate contender for Paris if her current trajectory continues.
2 Colin Sahlman 3:33.96 -- splash. The much-heralded HSer suddenly enters the Nuguse/Hocker/Kessler conversation.
3 Lexy Halladay-Lowry Her overall form in multiple events wasn’t as impressive as Hyde’s, but a massive 15-sec pb makes her one of the quickest collegiate steeplers ever and secures a spot on the line at the US Oly Trials.
4 Hilda Olemomoi We knew she was rock solid, but 15:06 places the AL sophomore in the realm of all-time NCAA 5000m greats Valby, Simpson and Tuohy. Will almost certainly become the 2nd or 3rd collegian to clock 14:5X.
5 Parker Valby Valby had clearly “broken out” before this meet, but a debut 30:50 with little help and no wavelights marks the top NCAA distance runner as a favourite to represent Team USA in the 10000m this summer.
D3 legend…..Alex Phillip. He’ll be running 27 low soon enough.
1. Sahlman isn’t beating Hocker or Nuguse. Maybe he can snipe Kessler or Teare if the former bungles his tactics or the latter can’t reach his 2022 form, but the top two are on a different level. A 3:40+ race isn’t happening. Nuguse isn’t going to hand the national title to Hocker like that.
2. Geb only ran the 800 twice in his career and Farah’s last result is from 2008, so to say either gave it a good shot isn’t really accurate. Mo was capable of 1:47 at bare minimum based on his 3:28.81, and it seems unlikely that Nico has any speed advantage over Geb who was a 3:31 guy and world indoor gold medalist. 1:48.00 is good for a 10k runner but we’re talking about two of the greatest ever here. And it’s way too early to be predicting 3:30 for Nico. He’s had an amazing year but nothing to indicate 3:30 so far.
I am not the one who downvoted your post btw.
1. Not likely. Not at all likely. But possible? Definitely. Much, much stranger things have happened than a collegiate runner on the rise beating an established pre-race favorite. In fact, that's one of the most common storylines at the Trials.
2. Oh come on, Geb ran 1:50 literally 2 days before he ran that 3:31i WR. He ran the 1:49 a week after running 3:32. He was in excellent form when he ran those 800s, and Young ran more than a full second faster. They are not comparable as overall runners, but over 800 it would be very realistic to pick Young. Mo the argument is a lot stronger, he was only a 13:07 guy when he ran his 1:48, and I would bet on him at 800 in peak form. But to say that a 3:28 runner with a similar 5k/10k PB would only be ~1 second faster at 800 is a stronger argument for Nico being in 3:30-3:31 shape than it is an argument against that. Not to mention, regardless of your opinions on the veracity of altitude conversions, 3:57 at 7000 feet is incredible, and even more so for an athlete not born at altitude. He ran 4:02 previously and went on to 3:37 that outdoor season. That race, coupled with his 800/5k times this season, are certainly indicative of at least 3:32, and 3:30 being within the realm of possibility.
I get your points but I really think you are underrating 1. how good that 3:57 in Flag was, and 2. how good 1:48.00 is for a 10k runner, and especially how incredible it is to run 26:52 and 1:48 back to back.
1. I think the chance of Sahlman beating either of them under normal circumstances (no falls, injuries, etc.) is so small it’s not really worth considering. Anything can happen I guess, but I would never pick a 3:33.9 college kid over guys who are way faster than him and have far more championship experience, especially when both of those guys are in their primes. Hasn’t this storyline you’re talking about only played out like twice in the last 20 years (Centro 2011, Hocker 2021)?
2. Jakob ran 1:47 a week before running 3:46. It doesn't mean anything about his maximum ability at the distance. In Geb’s case, I don’t see how you could possibly consider running an indoor 800 in early February “giving it a good shot.” We can agree to disagree on who would be faster I guess, but with Mo it’s not even close. I said 1:47 at bare minimum, and his 5k/10k PBs are only similar to Nico’s on paper so you can’t really draw any comparisons there.
As you said, Nico went from 4:02.89 to 3:56.00. Assuming the same conversion, his 3:57.33 would be worth 3:50.60 at sea level (equivalent to something like 3:33.5 for 1500). I have no problem believing he can run 3:32, but it’s a long way down to 3:30, a time you seem to be taking for granted.
1 Gracie Hyde 9:28 and 4:08 put this under-the-radar DII steeplechaser on par with Markezich’s form this time last year. Now a legitimate contender for Paris if her current trajectory continues.
2 Colin Sahlman 3:33.96 -- splash. The much-heralded HSer suddenly enters the Nuguse/Hocker/Kessler conversation.
3 Lexy Halladay-Lowry Her overall form in multiple events wasn’t as impressive as Hyde’s, but a massive 15-sec pb makes her one of the quickest collegiate steeplers ever and secures a spot on the line at the US Oly Trials.
4 Hilda Olemomoi We knew she was rock solid, but 15:06 places the AL sophomore in the realm of all-time NCAA 5000m greats Valby, Simpson and Tuohy. Will almost certainly become the 2nd or 3rd collegian to clock 14:5X.
5 Parker Valby Valby had clearly “broken out” before this meet, but a debut 30:50 with little help and no wavelights marks the top NCAA distance runner as a favourite to represent Team USA in the 10000m this summer.
D3 legend…..Alex Phillip. He’ll be running 27 low soon enough.
Sahlman 3:33.9 in April in the rain. Bet there is more in June.
Agreed. Mike Smith knows how to peak his athletes correctly. Two major takeaways from that race for me:
1. Sahlman will be a legit threat for the team. Probably 3:30ish over the summer. Kessler, Hocker, Nuguse better come to play, because even if they are all in 3:26-3:28 shape, there are gonna be enough guys in 3:30-3:32 shape to cause an upset if someone falters. May seem weird to mention Nuguse there but I seriously think even he is not as comfy as he would like to be, if the race is over 3:40 it's anyone's ballgame and he's not exactly known for his tactical acumen. A 3:26 guy has lost to a 3:30 guy in a slow race before :P
2. The 3:48 altitude conversion is legit. Nico absolutely dominated Colin in that mile, and 1:48.00 has got to be the fastest open 800m time for a sub-27:00 guy I've ever seen. Like seriously, has anybody ever been faster? Farah, Kejelcha, and Geb probably had it in them but they never actually did it (Farah and Geb both gave it a good shot too). That kind of speed on a 10k guy is ridiculous. Considering I'd still bet on him to beat Colin in a 1500 head to head, it only seems fair to expect 3:30ish from him as well.
phenoms like Nico and Colin aside, an under the radar breakout for NAU was Cael Grotenhuis, who ran a huge PR of 13:38 in the 5K, crushing his heat by almost 10 seconds. he's a junior, been grinding it out despite injuries and now showing dividends. nothing sexy, not game changing numbers, but a solid steady progression.
Agreed. Mike Smith knows how to peak his athletes correctly. Two major takeaways from that race for me:
1. Sahlman will be a legit threat for the team. Probably 3:30ish over the summer. Kessler, Hocker, Nuguse better come to play, because even if they are all in 3:26-3:28 shape, there are gonna be enough guys in 3:30-3:32 shape to cause an upset if someone falters. May seem weird to mention Nuguse there but I seriously think even he is not as comfy as he would like to be, if the race is over 3:40 it's anyone's ballgame and he's not exactly known for his tactical acumen. A 3:26 guy has lost to a 3:30 guy in a slow race before :P
2. The 3:48 altitude conversion is legit. Nico absolutely dominated Colin in that mile, and 1:48.00 has got to be the fastest open 800m time for a sub-27:00 guy I've ever seen. Like seriously, has anybody ever been faster? Farah, Kejelcha, and Geb probably had it in them but they never actually did it (Farah and Geb both gave it a good shot too). That kind of speed on a 10k guy is ridiculous. Considering I'd still bet on him to beat Colin in a 1500 head to head, it only seems fair to expect 3:30ish from him as well.
phenoms like Nico and Colin aside, an under the radar breakout for NAU was Cael Grotenhuis, who ran a huge PR of 13:38 in the 5K, crushing his heat by almost 10 seconds. he's a junior, been grinding it out despite injuries and now showing dividends. nothing sexy, not game changing numbers, but a solid steady progression.
I believe another break thru, altho I am sure he thought he could run faster was Nova red shirt frosh Marco Langon at 13:28, a 20 second best. He is only 19 still and ran Indoor 3:56.x mile and 7:43.x Indoor 3K. He is very gifted and I think will become a star under Marcus's tutelage.I am a big fan of his talent.
Has Silan only used one year of xc eligibility? So she was born last century, and she’ll still have at least 3 more seasons of cross and 2 of indoor and outdoor after this spring?
1 Gracie Hyde 9:28 and 4:08 put this under-the-radar DII steeplechaser on par with Markezich’s form this time last year. Now a legitimate contender for Paris if her current trajectory continues.
,,,
3 Lexy Halladay-Lowry Her overall form in multiple events wasn’t as impressive as Hyde’s, but a massive 15-sec pb makes her one of the quickest collegiate steeplers ever and secures a spot on the line at the US Oly Trials.
Halladay-Lowry's 9:26 win was just a 5 second PR. She ran 9:31 (10 sec PR) last year at USAs for 8th. She was 4th at NCAA champs.
It was quite the race in the women's 3k steeplechase invitational at the 2024 Bryan Clay Invitational. Lexy Halladay-Lowry took the win in 9:26.55 to lead th...
1 Gracie Hyde 9:28 and 4:08 put this under-the-radar DII steeplechaser on par with Markezich’s form this time last year. Now a legitimate contender for Paris if her current trajectory continues.
,,,
3 Lexy Halladay-Lowry Her overall form in multiple events wasn’t as impressive as Hyde’s, but a massive 15-sec pb makes her one of the quickest collegiate steeplers ever and secures a spot on the line at the US Oly Trials.
Halladay-Lowry's 9:26 win was just a 5 second PR. She ran 9:31 (10 sec PR) last year at USAs for 8th. She was 4th at NCAA champs.
We mic'd up University of Alabama Assistant Distance Coach Nick Stenuf while he coached University of Alabama Sophomore Hilda Olemomoi to the second-fastest ...