Already in College, the effect is less than in HS.
16th in 2018 indoor 3000m was 7:53.3
16th in 2024 was 7:43.8
…so 9.5 seconds. correct for 3200m instead of 3000m and you have 10s for 3200m.
I assume that it shrinks a little more at the world class level.
I would have to use the 5000m 2023 vs 2018
12:56.0 for 16th in 2023 vs 13:07 for 16th in 2018 (remember when you were world class when you ran 13:07).
So only 11 seconds over 5000m (7 seconds equivalent over 3200m). I am however expecting better than 12:56.0 for 16th in 2024. We already see that shoe technology has improved from 2023 to 2024.