Nico's run 12:57, been NCAA xc runner-up at 10k and top ten in 2021/2021/2022/2023, and I think it was in 2022 when he paced his teammates to low 27:40s, and on that occasion, I think that he stayed in for 8k-9k in pacing duties. So, he has a good shot at breaking 27 but as Woody and Klecker saw, you need people willing to take up the pacing after 5000m to get to that.
Yeah, if only there was someone in the race who could GRANT him the chance he needs to break 27.
About two or three years ago Nico paced Nur in a 10k in Fresno, CA at around 7:00 am. Nur ran 27:42ish. Nico’s pacing duties ended around the four mile mark.
There is no doubt in my mind that if Nico would have continued to the finish the American Junior 10k record would be under 28:00 minutes with Nico Young’s name next to it.
He is built for 10k. Hopefully he runs under 27:00 tonight.
Looking at how the BU 5k has translated to The TEN in the past, things are looking good for Nico breaking 27:
2022:
Grant Fisher 12:53 -> 26:33
Moh Ahmed 12:56 -> 26:34
Lopez Lomong 13:07 -> 27:39
Kieran Tuntivate 13:08 -> 27:23
Sean McGorty 13:09 -> 27:18
Conner Mantz 13:10 -> 27:25
Shadrack Kipchirchir 13:10 -> 27:24
2023:
Woody Kincaid 12:51 -> 27:06
Joe Klecker 12:55 -> 27:07
Athanas Kioko 13:09 -> 27:23
Jonas Raess 13:11 -> 27:26
Ben Flanagan 13:11 -> 27:49
Wesley Kiptoo 13:22 -> 27:45
Aaron Bienenfeld 13:22 -> 27:55
27:00.00 is 2.085x Nico's 12:57.14 from BU. 8 of the 14 men above (57%) had a smaller 10k/5k ratio. The median ratio (2.082) would project Nico at 26:58.2
Looking at how the BU 5k has translated to The TEN in the past, things are looking good for Nico breaking 27:
2022:
Grant Fisher 12:53 -> 26:33
Moh Ahmed 12:56 -> 26:34
Lopez Lomong 13:07 -> 27:39
Kieran Tuntivate 13:08 -> 27:23
Sean McGorty 13:09 -> 27:18
Conner Mantz 13:10 -> 27:25
Shadrack Kipchirchir 13:10 -> 27:24
2023:
Woody Kincaid 12:51 -> 27:06
Joe Klecker 12:55 -> 27:07
Athanas Kioko 13:09 -> 27:23
Jonas Raess 13:11 -> 27:26
Ben Flanagan 13:11 -> 27:49
Wesley Kiptoo 13:22 -> 27:45
Aaron Bienenfeld 13:22 -> 27:55
27:00.00 is 2.085x Nico's 12:57.14 from BU. 8 of the 14 men above (57%) had a smaller 10k/5k ratio. The median ratio (2.082) would project Nico at 26:58.2
This is a cool comparison - good to keep an eye on for this year.