Early 2024 NY Cross Country predictions?

I like the East Aurora girls’ odds for an NXN bid. They are a very young team with no senior girls this season. Mostly juniors and sophomores. With Saratoga losing so many top girls on their team, I’m curious to see how EA does in 2024. With O’Leary running very strong as one of the best in the state overall and with a very strong trio of girls behind her, I think this season looks good for them. They absolutely dominated Class C State. Bethlehem also looks great as their team is also still young. Would not be surprised in the slightest if they win States and NXR.

I think on the boys side, the top 3 teams will be Monroe Woodbury, Saratoga, and Ithaca.

Monroe Woodbury (NXR Champs) returns #2-6 + another 4:39 1600 sophomore.

Saratoga returns 3 scorers and also adds in Kerroum (4:33 1600 / 10:10 3200) and the younger Pasek (4:36 1600 / 10:13 3200). So this is a solid top 5.

Ithaca took 5th and is losing only 1 senior. Their top guy (Hubisz) won the 3200 at the Indoor state meet in 9:01.

Hubisz will probably be the #1 guy in the state if his performance this weekend can translate to the grass.

Bethlehem is looking to be #1 Girls team in NY.

East Aurora returns these times from NXR
18:43
19:31
20:06
20:24
20:29
21:18
22:25

Saratoga loses their 1-2-3, but they return these times from NXR:
19:38
19:50
19:53
19:54
20:24
20:56 (also 10:27 3k in track)
20:58
Also another 7th grader who ran a 10:39 3k in track.

East Aurora is looking to have better 2 front runners, but Saratoga is looking to have more depth.

Auburn returns their top three guys. Don't count them out.

Auburn’s #4 guy will need to step up and they will need to find a 5th runner. They also return 9 guys from their team roster.

North Rockland and Xavier are other teams that will be solid.

Brooklyn Technical and Bronx HS of Science have some solid returning track times too.

Fairport will be good but even better in 2025. All of their returning top 5 are currently sophomores.

Saratoga only returns 3 of their top 7 from regionals, for a team that didn't qualify. That's pretty rough. They will need to show major improvement to be competitive. I like Monroe-Woodbury and Ithaca for the two spots, with Auburn a bit behind.

Hubisz will likely win the region so Ithaca are basically scoring 4 guys, and they return 6 of their top 7 from last year. They need to get their NXR performance sorted though, they historically underperform at that meet. They certainly have the talent to make it, and probably the talent to be a top 10 national team.

MW returns 5 of 7 from a regional champion team, they should not only be looking to get back to NXN, they should realistically be thinking about a top 10 or top 5 placing. Our best shot at a nationally competitive squad.

Auburn only returns 4 of 7 and their depth outside of the top 5 was pretty bad, but if they can find a 5th then they definitely have the top end to make it. Ringwood should progress well this season though. If he hits 165+ they will give Ithaca a scare.

Corning will likely have a tough time getting to states but they are also in the mix, returning 5 of their top 7. They absolutely need to show some more progression though. Mahoney was very disappointing this fall, as was Homa. Boutwell will likely be a 180s guy and they have a host of 4:40s sophomores that could make a jump, but they need those two juniors to really get it done next year. Likely they will not make it.

I was vindicated by Fairport's states and regional performances last year, and I once again am finding it hard to have confidence in them this year. They just always seem to disappoint, even when they have really good teams. Returning only 3 of their top 7 makes it even harder for them, I doubt they will be competitive.

Xavier returns 5 of 7 but they've never made NXN or been particularly close so it's hard to pick them. Could say the same about Auburn last year but at least they had a new coach who revitalized the program. I'll pass on them I think.

Corning actually had 5 individuals qualify for the state meet. But when you count them in the team score, the team would have finished in the bottom 3. Ithaca is looking to be in a much better position.

Auburn’s #4 returner is a 10:26 3200 guy, but being a freshman, he can probably make a big jump.

Their 5th returner is a soph who has a 5k PR of 18:20. No indoor results but we’ll see how outdoor goes for him.

Maybe a transfer could help too.

Auburn has lots of guys on the modified team but none of them showed that they will help the team much next year.

Toga has 4:19,4:20,4:23,4:33,4:36 non senior indoor 1600s so far

9:19, 9:33, 9:36, 10:10, 10:13 nonsenior 3200 indoor times.

Based on returning 3200m times last season, NOBODY was going to touch Fairport. We know how that worked out.

Fairport graduated some guys from last year’s top 7, so they weren’t going to be prohibitive favorites.

But yes, there will be many teams that will end up doing better than Fairport.

They did very well at McQuaid but faded at the end of the season. Two years in a row.

St Anthony’s returns

- 9:59

- 10:04 (ran a 9:37 in 2023 indoor) (MacPherson)

- 10:09

- 10:10

- 17:03 5k / 1:56 800.

MacPherson is back after being out for a long time

Solid team but won’t be in contention for NXN like they were in 2022

I think Monroe Woodbury will win NYSPHSAA. They probably have a chip on their shoulder after losing it in the tiebreaker. They return everyone from that race except Jibb.

At NXN Monroe Woodbury beat a non-NY team, although many expected MW and Auburn to go 21st & 22nd there.

Bethlehem girls team hasn’t made the states in forever. Although they made NXN twice in a row. Pretty crazy. They’ve just had the misfortune of having Saratoga in their section. I think this will be their year.

Wouldn't exactly call 20th and 22nd a positive. Unfortunately that's the problem with new teams making it, it's good for the state's development but they tend to perform terribly. Just look at the last decade:

2014: FM, St. Anthonys, Liverpool - unreal year

2015: Liverpool, FM - average year

2016: FM, Liverpool - average year

2017: FM, Corning - great year

2018: FM, Burnt Hills - good year

2019: FM, Burnt Hills - average year

2021: Corning, Burnt Hills (no NXN but top 2 at NXR) - hard to say, Corning might've been top 5 caliber though

2022: Corning, St. Anthony's - average year

2023: Monroe-Woodbury, Auburn - bad year

17 spots from 2014-2022 were taken by 5 teams. FM qualified 6 times, Liverpool 3, Corning 3, Burnt Hills 3, and St. Anthony's 2. Each team had individual weak years during that stretch, but last year was the first in a long time that every single one of those teams were down. And unfortunately it's gonna be a few years I think before we see a new team of that quality and consistency develop (and in all likelihood they will be joined by one of those 5 teams in a resurgent year).

2019 is an example. In the preseason, Xavier looked to be a contender for second place at NXR after returning pretty much everyone, and instead, they ended up taking 11th that year.