Hello,
I was wondering how those Garmin watches calculate predicted racing times. I recently ran a time 2' faster than the prediction and it doesn't even adapt.. Also found it doesn't take in the equasion altitude and elevation gain. Can anyone elaborate a bit?
Thank you!
A curious nerd
Predictions are never accurate, that's why they are called predictions.
Pre Dict wrote:
Predictions are never accurate, that's why they are called predictions.
Right. But they can be used as a guide.
I've been running for 52 years. Recently I was out of racing (or at least serious racing) for about 5 years.
I have no idea what times to shoot for so I ran a hard 5K race and used a race predictor to give me a ball park figure.
It was close enough to be of practical use determining goal splits.
Mine said 18:02 and I ran 17:23 at NXR, so maybe it's close, but what I don't like is that it hasn't updated my prediction even though the watch said I ran a new 5K personal record of 17:20.
The longer I wear a Garmin, the more I'm convinced its not accurate at measuring anything.
On a very good day, I'm probably a minute off of my predicted 5k. It's probably off 15-25s per mile for predicted half marathon. I'm slower than it predicts.
RunningT wrote:
Hello,
I was wondering how those Garmin watches calculate predicted racing times. I recently ran a time 2' faster than the prediction and it doesn't even adapt.. Also found it doesn't take in the equasion altitude and elevation gain. Can anyone elaborate a bit?
Thank you!
A curious nerd
I've had one teammate who had his Garmin predict his race times accurately within 5s one season, but from my personal experience it can be wildly off. Right now my Forerunner 245 had me at 16:43 for a 5k after I held 15:40 pace for an 8k, so yeah I wouldn't put too much stock into the race predictions.