2:03:45 is going down on Sunday. Looks like perfect conditions & more than a few guys who could do it. I think Kiptum either runs 2:01 or is a DNS/DNF. I'd watch out for Kipruto. Super consistent results at this level. Not a ton of fast marathon attempts on good weather days. But what he did in Boston 2021 tells me he's ready for something fast on the right day. Could see him or Abdi running 2:03:30 FTW & the CR.
Mateiko is obviously intriguing too with his super fast half. Maybe what separates him from some other half marathon specialists is that he has experience pacing fast marathons. So we know he can get to 30k with the leaders. Should make for an interesting wrinkle. Should still be 5 or 6 guys in it with 10k to go, especially if the opening half pace is set to something closer to 1:02.