dennis kimetto 2.03.45 way back in 2013. kinda hard to believe it was that long ago. wore those adidas adios no-carbon-plate shoes, i think. i miss those things. must have worn out 12 or 15 pairs.
For me it Is going to be around 2h03'30"-2h04'00". There Is quite a lot of wind and the guy said he started training late and his body is not in perfect shape.
Historically the winning times of Chicago seem to be about 1 minute slower on average compared to London. Kiptum ran 2:01:25 in London earlier this year but he’s quite likely improved since then. I’m putting him down at 2:01:48
2:02 mid and his first marathon above 2:01:xx. He's already commented his training has been shortened / sub-optimal and that he's not chasing the WR this time, just a win. Doesn't mean it couldn't happen, but setting up a potential excuse ahead of time is never a good sign.