This isn't true at all. It was hot and rainy in Rio, and he won easily. It was cold and rainy in Berlin '17 , and he ran 2:03:32 for the win.
People constantly act like Eliud has only won paced races with perfect weather and that's just ignorance of the many races in many kinds of conditions he has won.
Would be surprised by a CR with the current forecast. 50 degrees, rain, humidity, head wind.
If Kipchoge is on a start list, I'm betting him until he calls it quits. But I do think he'll be challenged in this race. In those conditions I think it goes out slow and he's got as much or more company than he's ever had past mile 20 in a marathon. Tons of guys have been able to drop something ridiculous in the downhill 35k-40k stretch at Boston. I think it'll be Kipchoge this year but there's enough talent here that some will try to go with him.
Kipchoge seems to have a lot of hero worship at this point, but honestly I’m rooting for the upset or at least someone to give him a real scare. He’s so great he’s made marathoning more boring to me and I’m ready for the narrative to change.
And it will happen one day, and it won’t necessarily come with any warning. To the poster who said it’s a certainty that Kipchoge will win: just because I’ve seen a thousand sheep without wings, doesn’t mean there isn’t a winged sheep.
Greater chance, EK loses on Monday or JI loses in the 1500 in Budapest?
The race will be broadcast on WCVB Channel 5, our local ABC affiliate. They should have a live stream on their website.
As to the winner, I think it will be closer than usual. 10-20 mph headwind, the whole way. Light rain, possible showers. This isn't the race where one person just takes it on and charges the whole way through. In Boston, weather can be the great equalizer (e.g. Des Linden, Wesley Korir) and I think we could see that happen here.
If you're asking me to name a winner, obviously I'm taking Kipchoge. But if it's Kipchoge vs the field, I think I'm actually leaning towards the field here. Chebet is such a stud, the field is extremely deep, and there's just enough uncertainty with the course and the fact that Kipchoge has to start falling off eventually. I'm thinking 45% chance Kipchoge wins, 25% chance it's Chebet, and 30% it's someone else.
Kipchoge seems to have a lot of hero worship at this point, but honestly I’m rooting for the upset or at least someone to give him a real scare. He’s so great he’s made marathoning more boring to me and I’m ready for the narrative to change.
And it will happen one day, and it won’t necessarily come with any warning. To the poster who said it’s a certainty that Kipchoge will win: just because I’ve seen a thousand sheep without wings, doesn’t mean there isn’t a winged sheep.
I think he's made it more fun. I don't necessarily want to see him lose but if someone could beat him by surpassing him at his best...
While it’s inevitable that Kipchoge will eventually at some point start declining in performance due to the simple nature of time, there hasn’t been any indication we should expect anything less than we have been seeing from him in his last few marathons.
Also, just because he has been prioritizing flat, fast courses doesn’t mean he is scared of hills. He has a decent cross country resume which shows he does have strength on hills. We also know he has been training on hills/decline/mock Boston course so I don’t see this being a factor at all. And as others have pointed out, yes there are hills but it’s nothing insane.
I don’t doubt he will win, but because it’s more of a tactical course I do think Chebet, Kipruto, Geay, etc. will be closer than people might imagine.
I (unfortunately) think CJ will latch on to too fast of a group and get dropped before the Newton hills, but will still PR in the high 2:09s. Mantz is gutsy, I could see him also trying to stick with the pack for as long as he can and gritting it out. I’m hoping he holds back a little in the first half though so he doesn’t hit the wall like he did in Chicago. I think he will be in the high 2:07s as the top American, with Fauble being in the low 2:08s. He has obviously improved a lot since joining team Boss and I think we will see an improvement from last year.
King CJ Albertson will be that pacer that hangs on for the win
Now all makes sense when Evan's said: "During the first half of the race, I expect to be in the front pack with Benson keeping up with the pacemakers, but the second half is when the race truly begins."
Great interview, Jon: - I think it's a great idea to send them questions to be translated. I think the African runners will open more that way and provide great insights.
Chebet, who used to never win (0 wins in his 1st 10 marathons with six 2nd place finishes), has been winning everything of late including in 2022 when he became the 5th man to win Boston & NYC in the same year, says those win...
Of course anyone, even the greatest, can have a bad day. But to keep fixating on the no rabbit aspect.... the Olympics were not rabbited. And in some of his performances, his rabbits couldn't hang. Regarding the hills.... I think just maybe they have done some training to prepare for the hills. One thing I don't think we will hear is Kipchoge post race saying, "damn, I heard about the hills, but I didn't think they were like that. I should have done some hill running in training."
Would be surprised by a CR with the current forecast. 50 degrees, rain, humidity, head wind.
If Kipchoge is on a start list, I'm betting him until he calls it quits. But I do think he'll be challenged in this race. In those conditions I think it goes out slow and he's got as much or more company than he's ever had past mile 20 in a marathon. Tons of guys have been able to drop something ridiculous in the downhill 35k-40k stretch at Boston. I think it'll be Kipchoge this year but there's enough talent here that some will try to go with him.
First you tell us (in the Boston Weather thread) that there's this secret school in Hopkinton where you can park and get bussed over to a special waiting area right by the start with its own bathrooms. Now you're telling us that 50 degrees is too hot (or cold?), and a dewpoint in the mid 40s is too humid, and a 30% chance of a light sprinkle is too rainy. What's your next hot take?
King CJ Albertson will be that pacer that hangs on for the win
Now all makes sense when Evan's said: "During the first half of the race, I expect to be in the front pack with Benson keeping up with the pacemakers, but the second half is when the race truly begins."
Great interview, Jon: - I think it's a great idea to send them questions to be translated. I think the African runners will open more that way and provide great insights.
Honestly, the answers sounded pretty rote, like written, or at least highly edited by an Adidas paid publicist. Lots of product placement. If not a publicist, then Chebet has certainly mastered the fine technique of athlete speak. The blurb about racing EK is classic! C’mon Chebet is trying to slay the dragon, defeat the Jordan of his sport, and probably his nation’s greatest hero, there has to be some more inner angst and motivation. This will be the race of his life if he wins for this reason, beating EK as much as winning Boston again. I did enjoy reading about his backstory and hardships overcome. Both he and EK grew up without fathers.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
I would go with Kipchoge. But the dark horse is a 2:06 man named Andamlak Belihu! I mean this guy went through the first half with Kipchoge last year in Berlin, splitting 59:51 and he would keep world record pace past 25K, and that was just his debut! He could spring a surprise.
Can someone explain why the race is being held on a Monday? Wouldn’t it be easier to do it on a sat or sun with the road closures, tv broadcast etc? Is it just a tradition?
I would go with Kipchoge. But the dark horse is a 2:06 man named Andamlak Belihu! I mean this guy went through the first half with Kipchoge last year in Berlin, splitting 59:51 and he would keep world record pace past 25K, and that was just his debut! He could spring a surprise.
I hope Belihu runs well. Here's a cool training video of him easing through 10k at altitude (8000 ft).
King CJ Albertson will be that pacer that hangs on for the win
Now all makes sense when Evan's said: "During the first half of the race, I expect to be in the front pack with Benson keeping up with the pacemakers, but the second half is when the race truly begins."
Great interview, Jon: - I think it's a great idea to send them questions to be translated. I think the African runners will open more that way and provide great insights.