Okay that is honestly that is pretty funny, but absolutely not possible. (Plus didn't he say it has to be a track event?)
As far as a doing a RW event I have been there, trained (80-1000mpw) for several years and raced (legally I might add) with the best. It may look like fun to those whose haven't tried it, but a 2:35 marathon would be easier than 4:20 50K RW.
IF the OP can't buy his way out of the bet early, then the 3K may be his best best, or hire three legit fast 400 guys and run a couple burner 4x400s.
You have no chance of running sub 15:00. And it’s comical to see people casually suggesting a 34 year should close to triple his highest ever weekly mileage and think this is something that could be a productive training plan.
All you need is to do this 4 times in a row, and then squeeze another 200m into the remaining 12 seconds to get under 15 minutes in the 5k. Good luck, you will need it!
"I did around 30 mpw for about two years, hopped in a 1500 for the hell of it last year, and ended up cracking 4:40"
I'd argue 30 mpw for two years is enough volume and consistency to determine if OP had an above average level of talent for distance running. IMO their results do not indicate this at all.
The vibe that I'm getting is that the OP's 30 mpw was more like "jog 45 minutes a day, 5 days a week" and not "Long run Sunday, 10x400 session Tuesday, 3-4 mile tempo Thursday, race Saturday. Oh, and BTW, warmups and cooldowns don't count as mileage." There's a world of difference between those two.
This shows my obvious inexperience, but I'm wondering how much I can "muscle memory" this. An 8:45 3k is 70"/lap pace, so what if I did nothing but run at that speed all the time? Easy days would be maybe a dozen 35" 200s with plenty of recovery, hard days would be 600s in 1:45, and long days would be just doing as many 70" laps as I can within a 90-minute period. Is that plan even remotely feasible for getting someone under 8:45?
The short answer is no.
The long answer is that's not really how training works.
Your body needs to build aerobic capacity to get you through that second 1500. Otherwise I guarantee you will get through the first half on pace and then fall off a cliff in the second half every single time
So I made a half-drunken bar bet last night with a friend who used to run track in college that I could be fast enough to get a World Athletics profile in a track event by the end of 2024. When I took that bet, I thought that it would be a great excuse for me to YOLO it and train like a pro, but now that I've sobered up, I'm wondering whether I even have a snowball's chance in hell of pulling this off.
I'm 34 with zero college track experience, but I do lead an active lifestyle, am enthusiastic about running, and think that I may have a very tiny bit of talent. In my mid-late 20s, I dabbled with sprint training for a few years and ended up with a sub 25 200 at age 29. After 30, I switched to longer distances to get in shape for climbing the non-technical 14ers. I did around 30 mpw for about two years, hopped in a 1500 for the hell of it last year, and ended up cracking 4:40.
I looked through the World Athletics standards again today, and I think that my best shot would be to crank up the mileage up to 80-90 mpw and race the 5000 on a fast indoor track like BU (the qualifying standard for an indoor 5K is 15:00). I don't see how I'm going to meet the sprint standards unless I can somehow get the country's three fastest 400m guys to run a 4x400 relay with me.
Thoughts?
Your best bet is to try to give your friend a bird-in-hand offer. Offer him $300 today to get out of the original bet. You’ll save $700.
Yeah just train to run a 2:10 800m. Hard but doable with your speed. Then find 3 1:50 800m runners (good but not exceptional at all) to run a 4x800 with you. If they all split 1:52 and you can split under 2:14 that should do it.
TIL I have a World Athletics profile. I didn't realize it was that easy to get one.
Go for the 3k. 8:45 is pretty easy to be honest, especially on a track like BU. I know a lot of guys with very little talent who cracked 8:45 in college at the D3 level. You probably won't do it, but it's definitely easier than a sub-15 for someone in their first 2 years of running. The only other standard that might be doable is the 1k, set at 2:32. I would also consider that fairly easy, definitely a bit weaker than the 800/mile standards (1:56 and 4:17). If you can run 24.xx at 29, you should have enough speed for a 2:32 1k. I first ran under 2:32 as a senior in high school, and I never cracked 24 when I ran it (only a couple dual meets that outdoor season though).
C'mon man, it's absolutely ridiculous to pretend that an 8:45 3k is "pretty easy" for the standard runner. This site is often so crazy with what people pretend are realistic times for 99% of runners out there.
I know a fair few men around 30 or older who have run 14:30-14:50 here in the UK. What do they get for it? Nothing. If they are lucky they get £25 if they win a race. They might as well just hobbyjog like the 30 minute parkrunners. It's all a waste of time unless you can run something like a 13 minute 5K.
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whether you have the talent and speed is irrelevant
It is WAY more than $1000 worth of effort to win that bet. If you were willing to change your whole lifestyle to put in the effort required to do it you would already be doing it.
I've gone over 50 mpw during some of my backpacking trips, but I wouldn't consider that to be running.
Because it’s not running.
You have no chance of running sub 15:00. And it’s comical to see people casually suggesting a 34 year should close to triple his highest ever weekly mileage and think this is something that could be a productive training plan.
All right, I'm conceding that I have no chance of the sub 15 5K and will not be attempting it. It's 3K or bust. Don't know if the mileage recommendations would change.