I bet someone $1000 that I could get a World Athletics profile by the end of 2024. What are my odds of success?

No chance

Identify as female

Not impossible, but pretty improbable. What's your training like now? What's your most recent race result? What's your BMI? Have you ever run over 50 MPW?

You pretty much need to stay injury-free in order to have any shot at this. Get highly-cushioned shoes and make sure 70-80% of your mileage is EASY. Aim to get to 85ish MPW in a few months and not a few weeks, and take some down weeks once in a while.

Do some fast 100m strides a few times a week to maintain your speed. Do them with a rolling start to minimize the risk of pulling a hamstring.

Good luck.

Truthfully, nothing in your post indicates that you'll be able to become sub-15 5k at this stage of life. Not to mention, is sub-15 worthy of a WA page? I see D3 college runners in my area do this every year. Your 1,500 time is on par with what many average high school runners do during a track season. I think it's delusional to believe that, at 34, you're going to be able to transform into an athlete capable to compete with the sub-elites/elites. If it was going to happen, you'd have known by now.

Get a Letsrun shirt and some super shoes. That's at least 30 seconds easy. And EPO.

It is if it's run indoors. That's why I think it's my most "realistic" option:

worldathletics.org

5000 Metres - men - senior - indoor - 2023

Open link

Even it's that true, I still don't see a path to sub-15. I'm not trying to be negative, I think it's great you're motivated and want to train hard. But I also think it's important to set realistic expectations for yourself. Let's see you break 17 first, then 16:30, then 16. Your best mile (based on the 1,500 results you mentioned) puts you around 5 flat. IMO this is very average speed, not indicative of sub-15 potential. Sorry to say but even sub-16 might never be in the cards.

Take a trip to your local anti aging clinic and get some prescriptions

I hobby jogged 10 mpw from spring 2022 - early November 2022. I then did a haphazard base buildup and hit 33-35 mpw for like a week in early January. Early this month, I did a solo 1200m time trial in 3:41.94, but I had some adrenaline going on since some random guy was shouting "Did you see that guy? He's probably running a 4 minute mile now!"

My current BMI is 18. I've gone over 50 mpw during some of my backpacking trips, but I wouldn't consider that to be running.

it's 8:45 for the 3k

I completely agree, but since when was a 14:59 5K capable of competing with the elites? You wouldn't even be able to walk-on to many colleges with that time.

Good find, I think I'll go for that instead.

I'm starting to look into the logistics of this, and the timeline is tighter than I thought. There is indeed a December 2024 race on the BU track, but 2022's unattached entry standard for the 3000 is 9:00, which means that I'd have to run sub 9 by spring 2024. Even worse, there's a disclaimer that "this is not a guarantee of entry". I suppose my other option would be to find a different banked track that is also fast and has a more lenient entry standard.

goterriers.com

2022 Sharon Colyear-Danville Season Opener (PDF)

Meet information for the 2022 Sharon Colyear-Danville Season Opener

Open link

You're right, shouldn't have put elites in that sentence.

I was going to say no chance, but that 24.9 200 you did at age 29 offers an extremely faint glimmer of hope. I know several sub 8:45 3000m guys who couldn't run a sub 58 400 if their lives depended on it.

Problem is that the 24.9 200 speed hasn't correlated to strong distance results for OP, who has never even officially broke 5 in a mile. Now they expect to string together a couple of 4:41s by the end of next year. 0% chance, sorry OP.

True, but what do you expect from someone who hobby jogs 10 mpw for most of the year and only trains semi-seriously for maybe a month?

"I did around 30 mpw for about two years, hopped in a 1500 for the hell of it last year, and ended up cracking 4:40"

I'd argue 30 mpw for two years is enough volume and consistency to determine if OP had an above average level of talent for distance running. IMO their results do not indicate this at all.

I'm just curious, do you think the OP could break 15 at some point in his life if he fully commits to it?

You lost $1000