Something I keep debating, Do you think Kelvin Kiptum will break 2 hours in the Marathon this year?

His choice of Qiaodan (money no doubt) won’t help him run as fast as Nike. I think he will run well but breaking 2 is another thing altogether

KK will never break 2 hours. There is no way. UNLESS the shoe technology continues to make the sport even more of a joke. KK is like a 2:05 runner in the old shoes.

Of course as one of the few sub 2:02 runners ever, Kiptum's prospects at breaking 2 are far better than most humans. That does not mean that it is a probable outcome. The majority of super-quick debutantes never really reach that level again, so that's the first thing to look out for - it's possible that Kiptum will already show frailty and inconsistency in London, and then quickly recede from relevance.

If on the other hand he has a good showing in London, we can begin operating under the assumption that he will a nontrivial career, and may have a shot at lowering his personal best. Even in that case, dropping two minutes off a time already that quick is astronomically difficult and unlikely. Eliud's 2:01:09 seems to show that something in the neighborhood of 2:00:30-50 is humanly possible, and so it is possible that Kiptum has something like that level of talent. Still, I wouldn't hold my breath for him to break 2:01, let alone 2:00. I won't break out exhaustive stats now, but you've got to remember that a good many sub 2:04 runners only ever do it once. PRing at this level is not a common occurrence, unless you're Eliud Kipchoge. Kiptum would do well to run sub 2:03 or even sub 2:04 ever again...

All time runners with 2 or more sub 2:04 performances:

Wilson Kipsang (2:03:58, 2:03:42, 2:03:23, 2:03:13)

Kenenisa Bekele (2:03:03, 2:01:41)

Emannuel Mutai (2:03:52, 2:03:13)

Dennis Kimetto (2:03:45, 2:02:57)

Tamirat Tola (2:03:39, 2:03:40)

Amos Kipruto (2:03:30, 2:03:13)

Birhanu Legesse (2:03:16, 2:02:48)

Eliud Kipchoge (2:03:32, 2:03:05, 2:02:40, 2:02:37, 2:01:39, 2:01:09)

That's Eliud with 6, Wilson with 4, and 6 other runners with 2 each. The total number of sub 2:04 performances ever is 42 = 6 + 4 + 2*6 + 1*20. Of the 28 sub 2:04 performers all time, 20 managed it just once, 6 twice. Now Tola, Kipruto, Kipchoge, and perhaps Legesse are still active with good to non-zero chances of getting more sub 2:04 performances. Many of the other sub 2:04 runners are of course relatively recent and still active, so thinks will inevitably shift. Still, no matter how you slice it, running under 2:04 even just twice puts you in the company of eight or so.

And notice how the list would change if we tightened it to sub 2:03: only one man has ever managed that more than once.

Hey. That’s really interesting analysis. Thanks for posting.

Small nit, but Berlin last year was NOT ideal conditions. Still very good with only slight wind, but it got a little bit sunny and warm (14-15° C) on the back half. A more typical cloudy Berlin or London day in the 8-10°C (46-50°F) range would be ideal.

Gives me hope of the GOAT taking one more crack at it. If he's in good form after Boston, I suspect he will delay NYC to 2024 to head to Berlin in the Fall for one last WR attempt.

It's more about the support system around the athlete and less about the individual athlete's prowess.If Kipchoge didn't have a great support system he wouldn't have managed it.So far Kiptum is self coached ,one man show.Therefore his chances are pretty much minimal.

So if he had had a support team he probably already would have broken 2 hours?

Not at all. I’d say it was a flash in the pan, a bit like Adola after pressing Kipchoge at Berlin a few years ago. After seeing his recent signing with LiNing, I’d say that he’s seen his peak from a time perspective. However, I’d love to be completely wrong.

Based on the results of others, the benefit from the new shoes is about 2 minutes rather than 3.

What's Las Vegas saying? Can we bet on this at the casino? There's a reason they built high rise buildings in the desert 🏜

They're not gonna ask him to run in Ni-Ling shoes, are they ?

I still don't think the "supershoes" are a big deal change my mind

This is an idiotic post. There are countless studies that literally prove quantifiable benefits of the shoes.

0/10

Persistent runners find techniques to improve after their debut if they feel they can do better. Considering he's young and has a remarkable debut i think your question is a reason question. So I'm going with the notion, it's possible he'll break 2 hours.

It would be a waste of time, judging from your punctuation.

Run a marathon in leather soled shoes. Report back.