Let’s make sure I’m comprehending: you made an objective claim on comparative raw speed between two runners. Then, when it’s pointed out you can’t do that because you don’t have data for each runner, you resort to appeals to authority, a logical fallacy. Then, when someone else challenges your argument you ask them to provide the quantitative data you yourself don’t have, or their challenge is meaningless.
All of this on top of the truly ridiculous argument that raw speed measured over an arbitrary distance is a good predictor of 5k/10k potential. Does DK Metcalf have greater potential at the 5k than Mo because he can cover 10m quicker?
Can you comprehend that?
I'm asking you or anyone else to put up your hypothetical splits for Mo Farah running a 200m race.
Just do some critical thinking, put some numbers up to back up your claims.
Doesn’t contradict. Elite athletes- regardless of ethnicity- tend to have certain genes/alleles present. The studies found statistically similar prevalence in Caucasian athletes as in East African athletes.
This suggests that East Africans are not faster due to genetics.
Logical fallacy. Think before you post.
rojo's point is valid. Do you really think that body mass (regardless of ethnicity) doesn't have a genetic component?
Two things that are simultaneously true, according to current scientific knowledge:
1. East Africans are NOT genetically predisposed to be superior endurance athletes.
2. Some individuals are genetically predisposed to be superior endurance athletes.
But from listening to Rojo, he does seem to think there is an "East African distance running gene." If I'm wrong and he really means point 2 above, then he can tell me, but then he has to acknowledge that genetics isn't the reason that Americans are under-performing in the marathon.
If baby Mantz was adopted by a single mom in Nandi county and grew up poor, running to and from school 2-3 mi each way since he was 5, he’d be able to break 2:07.
Well, that's the entirely unethical but ideal experiment we'd need to do to test that! But you'd do it with an entire cohort rather than just one kid.
If the USA is serious about having world class long distance runners, we are going to need to make sacrifices. My children are all ready in college, so I missed the boat on this opportunity. If a person with the talent level of Grant Fisher had grown up in Nandi county instead of near sea level in Grand Blanc, Michigan, he’d probably be the 5/10k world record holder and ready to break 2:00 in the marathon.
rojo's point is valid. Do you really think that body mass (regardless of ethnicity) doesn't have a genetic component?
Two things that are simultaneously true, according to current scientific knowledge:
1. East Africans are NOT genetically predisposed to be superior endurance athletes.
2. Some individuals are genetically predisposed to be superior endurance athletes.
But from listening to Rojo, he does seem to think there is an "East African distance running gene." If I'm wrong and he really means point 2 above, then he can tell me, but then he has to acknowledge that genetics isn't the reason that Americans are under-performing in the marathon.
Ok we agree on 1 and 2. rojo can explain himself.
Now about your earlier point about Marc Scott's potential, he hasn't focused on the 1500 and he hasn't raced enough at super elite level in the 5000 and 10000. These issues are also True for Mo Farah before he bagan his world domination campaign.
Now Jakob is the top dog, in the 1500 and 5000, but he's not unbeatable.
Okay realistic you have to be trolling here. This is introductory statistics.
So you have nothing to offer?
On which part? High hopes just clearly synthesized my point. The weight of current evidence suggests that East Africans do not race faster as a result of genetics as compared to Caucasian athletes.
We know that elite athletes tend to have a different gene makeup from non-elite athletes. But we also know that makeup doesn't differ significantly between ethic groups among elites.
If you're so concerned about Mo, I gave a 200m conversion of 23.4 or something. Say it's 24.4 just to play it safe. Obviously we can't know max velocity without observing it, but we can know that on average, Mo would have covered each 10m in 2.44.
More likely hypotheses for East African dominance:
1. Born, living and training at altitude - a 2-3 month altitude camp is not the same as living there and working out there your whole life.
2. The All Black effect - you think New Zealanders are genetically predisposed to being great Rugby Union players? No. Kiwi kids look at the TV and who are the best and most famous athletes around? The All Blacks. Kenyan kids look at the TV and who are the best and most famous athletes? Distance runners.
3. Desire/need - running is possibly the best opportunity available for young Kenyans to make a lot of money. US and Europeans have so many other opportunities. Plus, Kenyans need to win to get paid. No six-figure sponsorship deals to sit in Flagstaff and run 2:10 for those guys.
I don't know if any of these would work out, but they're better prospects than genetics based on current evidence
All of these plus make way more sense! To add on to your second and third point, there are likely far more sub-elite (though I can’t prove it) runners training extremely hard as a result. At some point it could be a numbers game. Huge attrition rates, but with higher sample size comes higher observed success.
All great points, and not just likely — almost assuredly I'd say based on a lot of people who have visited and observed Kenyan camps/training areas. I think someone pointed out that outside of Kipchoge/Kamworor, who has Patrick Sang actually coached to success? Well, to this point you can watch an NN long run, or a Haji Adilo-led one, Renato, an Asics team ~ whoever. There are dozens of athletes (you haven't heard of) in each of these, and it's striking when you watch on Sweat Elite or whoever and they often try to ID as many as possible. Extrapolate to the entirety of Kenya and there're tons of athletes ~ many likely over their head. If you're ever really bored, check out a Kenyan junior 800-1500m race on KTV (or whatever the YouTube channel is). It's pretty crazy to watch. Sometimes you'll have 20 kids, all raw as hell running with no fear/idea what they're doing for the most part. One or two of them will stand out in the race most of the time. It's kinda like if everyone in your state in the USA did a gym mile as opposed to being siphoned to the other 10 sports you could do here.
All great points, and not just likely — almost assuredly I'd say based on a lot of people who have visited and observed Kenyan camps/training areas. I think someone pointed out that outside of Kipchoge/Kamworor, who has Patrick Sang actually coached to success? Well, to this point you can watch an NN long run, or a Haji Adilo-led one, Renato, an Asics team ~ whoever. There are dozens of athletes (you haven't heard of) in each of these, and it's striking when you watch on Sweat Elite or whoever and they often try to ID as many as possible. Extrapolate to the entirety of Kenya and there're tons of athletes ~ many likely over their head. If you're ever really bored, check out a Kenyan junior 800-1500m race on KTV (or whatever the YouTube channel is). It's pretty crazy to watch. Sometimes you'll have 20 kids, all raw as hell running with no fear/idea what they're doing for the most part. One or two of them will stand out in the race most of the time. It's kinda like if everyone in your state in the USA did a gym mile as opposed to being siphoned to the other 10 sports you could do here.
The impact of culture and opportunity cannot be overstated and is likely the most important explanation for East African dominance. There are not any great Andean or Sherpa marathon runners to my knowledge, both typically diminutive, fit people growing up poor and at altitude. They don’t care about distance running.
This post was edited 14 minutes after it was posted.
I mean I think he can run a sub-27 10,000 and maybe medal in a continental/Commonwealth champs, but not sure what else he could do on the global level. Can’t see his ceiling being as high as Fisher/Ahmed in terms of contending for World/Olympics medals outdoors.
Why not? Look how long it took Farah to make it.
Mo Farah's breakout started in his age 27 season, I think it's fair to say. You could see signs of it in his age 26 season getting down under 3:34 and 7:35 (just before age 26). And Mo himself was really an elite beginning at age 22-23. He's a late bloomer, but by age 28-29 he was pretty much at his peak that he was able to maintain a number of years. His supreme tactics and speed for a 5,000 and 10,000 guy (in a weaker era) made him nearly unbeatable in championship race.
So when we think of Marc Scott, 2017 (age 23) is when he became an elite guy. By age 26 (2020 season), he starts to reap the benefits of Jerry's training. Pretty huge improvements through 2022 indoors. Then injuries/stagnation. I think he hit the physical peak like Mo did at around the same time — 28. It's late, but the idea that there's another one coming in his 30s is pretty unheard of. He doesn't have Mo's same top-end 1500 abilities, though he has nice speed/tactics to beat Jacob Krop and Daniel Ebenyo in that World Indoor 3000m.
I'm not sure why we'd think he could or would morph into a World/Olympics medals threat at least on paper. I mean sure Oscar Chelimo/Luis Grijalva show anything can happen. Grant Fisher can box himself in and then nearly fall down, Nicholas Kipkorir Kimeli can screw up his tactics, all of the Ethiopians can botch their build-ups with too much racing, Joshua Cheptegei can get hurt in prelims, Jacob Kiplimo can be too banged up to double. But in general last year was the perfect storm probably, and more likely we'll see more chalk 5,000s going forward. The top guys rose in the 10,000 as they traditionally do — we just didn't know Mburu was of that talent level.
On which part? High hopes just clearly synthesized my point. The weight of current evidence suggests that East Africans do not race faster as a result of genetics as compared to Caucasian athletes.
We know that elite athletes tend to have a different gene makeup from non-elite athletes. But we also know that makeup doesn't differ significantly between ethic groups among elites.
If you're so concerned about Mo, I gave a 200m conversion of 23.4 or something. Say it's 24.4 just to play it safe. Obviously we can't know max velocity without observing it, but we can know that on average, Mo would have covered each 10m in 2.44.
Well East Africans are smaller in general, noticeably so. That gives them a heat dissipation advantage in distance races but not in the 1500.
I give Mo Farah 25.0 for 200 because, like Bekele, and Gebresellasie they all had phenomenonally conditioned speed endurance, such that they could hold close to max velocity for 300m.
Look at Mo's 100m time, he barely broke 13.
He could do a flying 100 in 11.9 without wind assistance. Even he would decellerate a tiny bit in a 200, hence my 25.0
Mark Scott ran 24.6 in a minor league meet.
Mo Farah and Bekele used their skills and race craft to win races. Somone who posts here altered Bekele's Wikipedia page a few years ago to say he ran the last 100m in the 2009 World Championship 5000 in "11XX". His actual time was 13.4.
This is the kind of nonsense that goes around and around on these boards. Fanboys don't know their sport and don't discuss important issues with any logic or sense of proportion.
Mo Farah's breakout started in his age 27 season, I think it's fair to say. You could see signs of it in his age 26 season getting down under 3:34 and 7:35 (just before age 26). And Mo himself was really an elite beginning at age 22-23. He's a late bloomer, but by age 28-29 he was pretty much at his peak that he was able to maintain a number of years. His supreme tactics and speed for a 5,000 and 10,000 guy (in a weaker era) made him nearly unbeatable in championship race.
So when we think of Marc Scott, 2017 (age 23) is when he became an elite guy. By age 26 (2020 season), he starts to reap the benefits of Jerry's training. Pretty huge improvements through 2022 indoors. Then injuries/stagnation. I think he hit the physical peak like Mo did at around the same time — 28. It's late, but the idea that there's another one coming in his 30s is pretty unheard of. He doesn't have Mo's same top-end 1500 abilities, though he has nice speed/tactics to beat Jacob Krop and Daniel Ebenyo in that World Indoor 3000m.
I'm not sure why we'd think he could or would morph into a World/Olympics medals threat at least on paper. I mean sure Oscar Chelimo/Luis Grijalva show anything can happen. Grant Fisher can box himself in and then nearly fall down, Nicholas Kipkorir Kimeli can screw up his tactics, all of the Ethiopians can botch their build-ups with too much racing, Joshua Cheptegei can get hurt in prelims, Jacob Kiplimo can be too banged up to double. But in general last year was the perfect storm probably, and more likely we'll see more chalk 5,000s going forward. The top guys rose in the 10,000 as they traditionally do — we just didn't know Mburu was of that talent level.
People said all this stuff about Mo before his breakthrough. And then when he made it, it was a different kind of negativity. His personality is a force of nature. I followed him from the very early years and Marc since February 2005. Time, place and day etched in my mind.
I'm amazed by comments like this. THe US just hasn't 'figured out' the marathon (except when an African-born runner like Khannouchi sets a WR for us). The Japanese just haven't figured out mid-d or anyting on the track (except when they are coaching Kenyans on the track).
It's GENETICS people. If I had to guess, I'd say Americans are too big for the marathon. Wikipedia says Kipchoge is 5'6 and Bekele is 5'5". Most American men distance runnners are much bigger than that. Much.
The people who hadn't figure out the marathon were the Kenyans up until the mid 1990s. Now they dominate it.
Genetics? Hall ran his 2:06:17 in April 2008, which was just 1:51 slower (1.49%) than the world record at that time.
Others have improved a lot since then, but somehow not the American marathoners. Somebody as relatively close as Hall to the WR would now run under 2:02:57! No American appears to be close to that now.
I think the relevant genetic factor re Hall was not what his height was but that he was raised at altitude. Overall I find it strange that this obvious elephant in the long distance room is given less prominence than height. ALL of the fastest all time men at marathon and indeed HM and 10k are altitude reared. But numerous of them are not short
On which part? High hopes just clearly synthesized my point. The weight of current evidence suggests that East Africans do not race faster as a result of genetics as compared to Caucasian athletes.
We know that elite athletes tend to have a different gene makeup from non-elite athletes. But we also know that makeup doesn't differ significantly between ethic groups among elites.
If you're so concerned about Mo, I gave a 200m conversion of 23.4 or something. Say it's 24.4 just to play it safe. Obviously we can't know max velocity without observing it, but we can know that on average, Mo would have covered each 10m in 2.44.
Well East Africans are smaller in general, noticeably so. That gives them a heat dissipation advantage in distance races but not in the 1500.
I give Mo Farah 25.0 for 200 because, like Bekele, and Gebresellasie they all had phenomenonally conditioned speed endurance, such that they could hold close to max velocity for 300m.
Look at Mo's 100m time, he barely broke 13.
He could do a flying 100 in 11.9 without wind assistance. Even he would decellerate a tiny bit in a 200, hence my 25.0
Mark Scott ran 24.6 in a minor league meet.
Mo Farah and Bekele used their skills and race craft to win races. Somone who posts here altered Bekele's Wikipedia page a few years ago to say he ran the last 100m in the 2009 World Championship 5000 in "11XX". His actual time was 13.4.
This is the kind of nonsense that goes around and around on these boards. Fanboys don't know their sport and don't discuss important issues with any logic or sense of proportion.
1. The size argument is interesting. I haven't seen any peer-reviewed research that actually can demonstrate that the group of elite East African runners is smaller than other elite runners. It may be out there. But I think it's more likely that we're thinking of anecdotal evidence, as well as putting an outsized emphasis on heat dissipation.
2. As far as the 200m splits... Mo absolutely had great speed endurance, but think the 100m time through. He ran 12.9 in a stupid race he didn't care about in crappy conditions. Without even going into the hypothetical improvements due to a few weeks of speed sharpening, better starting practice, better conditions, etc., the 12.9 suggests he should be able to run faster over 200m than 25. 12.9 is roughly 49 flat 400m pace when you take into account acceleration time costs. Plus, if we use your argument that he could sustain so close to max pace, a full second deceleration over 200m seems excessive. If anything, all we can conclude from this is that conversions are flawed and we don't have useful data. A sharp Mo should have been able to run 49. Much faster... probably not but maybe, we'll never know. The simple fact that Marc was in a 200m race suggests that he probably was actually working on speed and sharp, so we're not exactly comparing apples to apples either.
I'm inclined to believe that Mo's 200m potential was slightly higher. We can't know. But the bigger question is, how is it a good measure of mid/long distance performance? The 1-3 tenths of a second difference doesn't tell us a thing about 1500m potential, much less 5 or 10k. It's also pretty clear that Marc doesn't have the 1500m potential Mo did, or the finishing speed and tactics to race the way he did. With a 3:28, Mo could reasonably be a medal threat in a fast race, just like he was a medal threat in the 5k/10k. It's a harder argument to make for Marc, so I really don't understand the argument that he has more track potential.
Two things that are simultaneously true, according to current scientific knowledge:
1. East Africans are NOT genetically predisposed to be superior endurance athletes.
2. Some individuals are genetically predisposed to be superior endurance athletes.
But from listening to Rojo, he does seem to think there is an "East African distance running gene." If I'm wrong and he really means point 2 above, then he can tell me, but then he has to acknowledge that genetics isn't the reason that Americans are under-performing in the marathon.
Ok we agree on 1 and 2. rojo can explain himself.
Now about your earlier point about Marc Scott's potential, he hasn't focused on the 1500 and he hasn't raced enough at super elite level in the 5000 and 10000. These issues are also True for Mo Farah before he bagan his world domination campaign.
Now Jakob is the top dog, in the 1500 and 5000, but he's not unbeatable.
Honestly, I'm not sure if you're trolling at this point. You can't possibly think Marc Scott can be a globally competitive 1500m runner? He'd be lucky to get 6th at the British champs. I can't even see it in the 5000, arguably his best event. He's never broken 13 outdoors, in his best ever race he was third indoors behind Fisher and Ahmed, and he's 29. His best finish in a global champs is 14th. I like the guy, but I can't see much left for him on the track.
Now about your earlier point about Marc Scott's potential, he hasn't focused on the 1500 and he hasn't raced enough at super elite level in the 5000 and 10000. These issues are also True for Mo Farah before he bagan his world domination campaign.
Now Jakob is the top dog, in the 1500 and 5000, but he's not unbeatable.
Honestly, I'm not sure if you're trolling at this point. You can't possibly think Marc Scott can be a globally competitive 1500m runner? He'd be lucky to get 6th at the British champs. I can't even see it in the 5000, arguably his best event. He's never broken 13 outdoors, in his best ever race he was third indoors behind Fisher and Ahmed, and he's 29. His best finish in a global champs is 14th. I like the guy, but I can't see much left for him on the track.
People said all this stuff about Mo before his breakthrough. And then when he made it, it was a different kind of negativity. His personality is a force of nature. I followed him from the very early years and Marc since February 2005. Time, place and day etched in my mind.
Yes but Mo was relatively young and had admittedly slacked at times. Marc is not and has not. To expect a guy who ran 12:57 training with Grant Fisher/Mo Ahmed in the peak of his career after a strong few years of high-level training to jump again at age 29/30 to running 12:45/26:40 feels like wishful thinking.
Well East Africans are smaller in general, noticeably so. That gives them a heat dissipation advantage in distance races but not in the 1500.
I give Mo Farah 25.0 for 200 because, like Bekele, and Gebresellasie they all had phenomenonally conditioned speed endurance, such that they could hold close to max velocity for 300m.
Look at Mo's 100m time, he barely broke 13.
He could do a flying 100 in 11.9 without wind assistance. Even he would decellerate a tiny bit in a 200, hence my 25.0
Mark Scott ran 24.6 in a minor league meet.
Mo Farah and Bekele used their skills and race craft to win races. Somone who posts here altered Bekele's Wikipedia page a few years ago to say he ran the last 100m in the 2009 World Championship 5000 in "11XX". His actual time was 13.4.
This is the kind of nonsense that goes around and around on these boards. Fanboys don't know their sport and don't discuss important issues with any logic or sense of proportion.
1. The size argument is interesting. I haven't seen any peer-reviewed research that actually can demonstrate that the group of elite East African runners is smaller than other elite runners. It may be out there. But I think it's more likely that we're thinking of anecdotal evidence, as well as putting an outsized emphasis on heat dissipation.
2. As far as the 200m splits... Mo absolutely had great speed endurance, but think the 100m time through. He ran 12.9 in a stupid race he didn't care about in crappy conditions. Without even going into the hypothetical improvements due to a few weeks of speed sharpening, better starting practice, better conditions, etc., the 12.9 suggests he should be able to run faster over 200m than 25. 12.9 is roughly 49 flat 400m pace when you take into account acceleration time costs. Plus, if we use your argument that he could sustain so close to max pace, a full second deceleration over 200m seems excessive. If anything, all we can conclude from this is that conversions are flawed and we don't have useful data. A sharp Mo should have been able to run 49. Much faster... probably not but maybe, we'll never know. The simple fact that Marc was in a 200m race suggests that he probably was actually working on speed and sharp, so we're not exactly comparing apples to apples either.
I'm inclined to believe that Mo's 200m potential was slightly higher. We can't know. But the bigger question is, how is it a good measure of mid/long distance performance? The 1-3 tenths of a second difference doesn't tell us a thing about 1500m potential, much less 5 or 10k. It's also pretty clear that Marc doesn't have the 1500m potential Mo did, or the finishing speed and tactics to race the way he did. With a 3:28, Mo could reasonably be a medal threat in a fast race, just like he was a medal threat in the 5k/10k. It's a harder argument to make for Marc, so I really don't understand the argument that he has more track potential.
Guess Mo's maximum velocity without wind assistance? Go on, try?
People said all this stuff about Mo before his breakthrough. And then when he made it, it was a different kind of negativity. His personality is a force of nature. I followed him from the very early years and Marc since February 2005. Time, place and day etched in my mind.
Yes but Mo was relatively young and had admittedly slacked at times. Marc is not and has not. To expect a guy who ran 12:57 training with Grant Fisher/Mo Ahmed in the peak of his career after a strong few years of high-level training to jump again at age 29/30 to running 12:45/26:40 feels like wishful thinking.
Why? He's never had the appropriate individual coaching. This was one of his main complaints.