The real commonality among today's top women pros Coburn, Schweizer, Purrier, Houlihan, Monson, Kelati, Hurta, Rogers was they all won NCAA titles and then improved dramatically in their first 2 years as pros.
Cranny was injured / stagnant in college, but was still a 4 time NCAA runner up and also improved dramatically as a pro.
The outliers are McLean, Norris and Rodenfels who were quiet in college, and really busted out as pros.
Cranny is actually an interesting comparison as she was very accomplished in hs. In the 1500 Cranny ran 4:15 at age 17, while Tuohy ran that time at age 16. By age 20, Tuohy was at 4:07, while Cranny was "only" at 4:10 (and still there at age 23). Between age 18 and 23 Cranny had almost no 1500 time improvement. But at age 26 Cranny got to 3:59. Most if not all of Cranny's hs 3200 times were in CO presumably at altitude so her time of "only" 10:17 might seem slow, but she was probably faster than that at sea level.
Cranny was a top recruit coming out of HS. She held several CO state records including the 3200. Freshman year of college she ran 8:58 in the indoor 3000m and set the U20 record (just like Tuohy), and split 4:31 in the DMR. But, she stagnated after that for 4 years and started really improving again as a pro.
Infeld, Sisson, Quigley and Frerichs were also NCAA champs.
Cory Magee was an NCAA runner up.
It's almost a requirement to be an NCAA champ/runner up to make a us team..
Being an NCAA champion or runner up is probably a better predictor of who will find success as a pro than how someone improved from 16-20. At those ages girls will improve at different rates and may even slow down or go backwards because their bodies change. Most make it through that by their final years of eligibility.
Sisson was also already fast in highschool. She seems to have done well!
40MPW-60MPW-70MPW. YET LRC STILL WANT YOU TO BELIEVE THAT SHE WILL BURNOUT NEXT YEAR.
Obviously then she has room to improve.
Btw: she's like 20. Even if she stagnates at 4:06 she at least will have to possibility to run like 8:35ish 3k and 14:40-50 5k. Definitely a good perspective. If she stays healthy she could very well become world class.
Cranny is one of the top 10 all time. Plotting the improvement of the top 10 from age 16-20, Tuohy only improved 1/2 as much while Stearns, Cook, and Valby were right on target. Cranny is in the dataset. You are correct that cherry picking can be used to prove anything.
Tuohy only improved half as much as them? If you start as a 4:12 runner as a freshman then mathematically you're closer to 3:59 than someone who runs 4:32, I didn't know being fast was a bad thing.
Tuohy ran 4:12 her freshman year while coming back from her surgery. Then ran 4:06 the next year.
So we will compliment Stearns as she improves by 20 seconds to a 4:12 while we shame Tuohy for improving just 3 seconds to a 4:03 next year.
What does Katelyn have to do on here to prove herself? Remember when she won her THIRD national high school title, and Rojo posted a tacky thread comparing her to Nico Young, who had won his first title, saying he believed Young is the better future prospect? The girl won for a third time, and because the margin of victory was less than a second, Rojo was frothing at the mouth ready to pounce on her demise. Imagine what would be said about her if she finished 2nd or 3rd? At nationals?
Except Nico is already better than Touhy. Nico in 2022 hit the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFYING TIME and placed 8th at USATF Championships.
Touhy DID NOT run the world championship standard and placed 13th at USATF against a much weaker field than Nico faced.
Sydney Seymour and 4 other girls have the same mileage as Tuohy but different workouts.
Running up to 70 mpw just doesn't seem high for an NCAA championship winning team. I wonder what New Mexico runs.
It is not. Most distance runners run 60-70 miles per week. I know a lot of mediocre d1 runners who runs the same mileage as Tuohy but are not getting the same result as her.
gen next hates tuohy because she keeps on beating everyone with Tuohy only improved half as much as them? If you start as a 4:12 runner as a freshman then mathematically you're closer to 3:59 than someone who runs 4:32, I didn't know being fast was a bad thing.
Tuohy ran 4:12 her freshman year while coming back from her surgery. Then ran 4:06 the next year.
So we will compliment Stearns as she improves by 20 seconds to a 4:12 while we shame Tuohy for improving just 3 seconds to a 4:03 next year.
Great!
Tuohy also dropped 75 seconds off her OK state course time in 19 months. But I guess that doesn't count...
Except Nico is already better than Touhy. Nico in 2022 hit the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFYING TIME and placed 8th at USATF Championships.
Touhy DID NOT run the world championship standard and placed 13th at USATF against a much weaker field than Nico faced.
Safe to say Nico peaked on the wrong meets. No one will remember his 8th place heroics but many will remember how he kept getting out kicked in college.
What does Katelyn have to do on here to prove herself? Remember when she won her THIRD national high school title, and Rojo posted a tacky thread comparing her to Nico Young, who had won his first title, saying he believed Young is the better future prospect? The girl won for a third time, and because the margin of victory was less than a second, Rojo was frothing at the mouth ready to pounce on her demise. Imagine what would be said about her if she finished 2nd or 3rd? At nationals?
Except Nico is already better than Touhy. Nico in 2022 hit the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFYING TIME and placed 8th at USATF Championships.
Touhy DID NOT run the world championship standard and placed 13th at USATF against a much weaker field than Nico faced.
Nico is male. Why are you comparing her to a male runner? Very very few college age women have ever run under 15:10. Men and women, once again, progress differently.
Except Nico is already better than Touhy. Nico in 2022 hit the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFYING TIME and placed 8th at USATF Championships.
Touhy DID NOT run the world championship standard and placed 13th at USATF against a much weaker field than Nico faced.
2 national titles is way better than an 8th place at USATF. 8th and 13th place isn't that far, both didn't make the team but the other one is a multiple national champion.
Except Nico is already better than Touhy. Nico in 2022 hit the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFYING TIME and placed 8th at USATF Championships.
Touhy DID NOT run the world championship standard and placed 13th at USATF against a much weaker field than Nico faced.
Safe to say Nico peaked on the wrong meets. No one will remember his 8th place heroics but many will remember how he kept getting out kicked in college.
Why do Tuohy fans need to compliment her by INSULTING other runners? Nico is racing much stronger competition than Tuohy (and he's a year younger). Hicks has run 27:40 and 7:43.
Outdoors as a FRESHMAN Nico got outkicked by two 6th year seniors.
Indoors as a freshman he got outkicked by Nur who a few months later ran 13:06 then placed 11th IN THE WORLD.
Except Nico is already better than Touhy. Nico in 2022 hit the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFYING TIME and placed 8th at USATF Championships.
Touhy DID NOT run the world championship standard and placed 13th at USATF against a much weaker field than Nico faced.
Tuohy could have easily hit the world championship standard if she ran on a fast meet like Nico Young! Tuohy DID NOT run in a fast meet, a solo'd a 15:14.