Amane won the Telcel Mexico City Marathon in August in 2:25:05. This may not sound impressive at a first glance, but this marathon is held at 2,200m above sea level. The altitude conversion calculators this run to a 2:16:25 (one even equates it to a 2:14). Now maybe that is a bit too generous, but it definitely signalled that she was the top contendar not named Gidey. Based on her PB, she wasn't even in the top few people talked about, but she probably should have been in the conversation.
To put this Mexico City Marathon time in perspective
Vivian Kiplagat (2:20 pb) won this marathon in 2019 in 2:33
Etaferahu Woda (2:28 pb) won in 2018 in 2:40
Gladys Tejeda (2:25 pb) won in 2017, 2013, in 2:36, and 2:37
Diana Lobačevskė (2:28 pb) won in 2016 in 2:40
Shewarge Amare (2:28 pb) won in 2014 and 2015 both times in 2:41, and 2012 in 2:39
Only one woman winner in the past 10 years has run this marathon within 10 min of their PB. Lucy Cheruiyot, in 2021 won in 2:27, and that was close to her 2:27 pb, although she hasn't run a marathon since, so watch out for her if you ever see her in a race, its definitely worth a sub 2:20. Besides Beriso she is the only other woman to run sub 2:33 at this tough marathon, and its not like this marathond doesn't get any talent. I'm going to keep my eye on this marathon in the future for letsrun prediction contest upsets.
The altitude conversion calculators this run to a 2:16:25 (one even equates it to a 2:14). Now maybe that is a bit too generous
Sounds like the conversion is right on, not a bit too generous.
I think the Jack Daniels one is probably spot on (actually 2:16:15 if you plug 7,350 ft in). We should probably assume that the Valencia mark was bennefited by the pacing, so assuming that, it would be reasonable to think her Mexico marathon was worth about a 2:16 low, unpaced.
So 2,20 from Dubai 6 years ago - no races for 2 years then a time in Mexico City that you equate to 2,14. Zero logic - same as the 800m girl with no pr’s above 800m running 2,15 after 2,34 debut.
So 2,20 from Dubai 6 years ago - no races for 2 years then a time in Mexico City that you equate to 2,14. Zero logic - same as the 800m girl with no pr’s above 800m running 2,15 after 2,34 debut.
2:20 as her marathon debut 6 years ago, in 2nd place, without super shoes, followed by injuries is a plausible explanation. Of course all times these days are suspicious, so of course this one is too.
So 2,20 from Dubai 6 years ago - no races for 2 years then a time in Mexico City that you equate to 2,14. Zero logic - same as the 800m girl with no pr’s above 800m running 2,15 after 2,34 debut.
I honestly find her progression fairly believable. Her debut was probably worth a 2:18 with shoes, 6 years ago, followed by a blow up performance in Boston, and a bunch of injuries makes sense. Its far more believable than Kiptums sub 2:02 debut (Gidey had a more typical debut). They could both be clean or doped, but I'd guess Desiso is clean over Kiptum.