Should I aim higher than 3:30 after running a 1:34 HM?

Training Advice/Discussion Marathon

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1 year ago 10/18/2022 4:48pm EDT

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

In all modesty, I believe I'm somewhat of an authority on this. Yes, you have a good shot at breaking 3:30. That's an achievable goal, assuming the weather on race day is good for marathoning.

I ran half marathons in 1:36-1:38 a total of 6 times in the span of 2 years when I was 50 and 51. During those years I also ran marathons in 3:34, 3:37 and 3:39. If you ran a half in 1:34, you're definitely capable of running sub-3:30 for a full marathon, especially if you're younger than I was.

Good luck!

1 year ago 10/18/2022 9:52pm EDT

re: Negativesplitter

Negativesplitter wrote:
OP that taper is awfully extreme. 38/20/10? Two weeks at 40/20 is good. 12 miles the Sunday before, then 5/4/4/3/3/2.

5/4/4/3/3/2--I'm assuming the 2 is just a shakeout and a few strides?!

1 year ago 10/19/2022 12:22am EDT

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

I wrote a running calculator a while back (https://davethecanuck.github.io/runcalc/) and it can predict times for different distances based on your race history, with adjustments to favor predictions made by races that are closer in distance. You can include your age, altitude, and elevation gain/loss for your past races and predict future races for various scenarios of age/altitude/elevation. I think it works pretty well, so let me know what you think after you finish Philly.

By the way, the Philly marathon has about 830 ft elevation gain and loss so has some non-negligible hills, especially in the university district before the half. Assuming your half-marathon was a flat and fast course, my calculator predicts you'll run around 3:16/17 assuming you have trained for the distance and execute as well as you did your half.

I think that executing a full marathon is much harder than executing a half. Let's call it an even 3:20 for you based on your half. You'll definitely break 3:30 unless you do something stupid or the gods decide to laugh at you on that day. Good luck!

1 year ago 10/19/2022 7:12am EDT

re: jecht

jecht wrote:
Negativesplitter wrote:
OP that taper is awfully extreme. 38/20/10? Two weeks at 40/20 is good. 12 miles the Sunday before, then 5/4/4/3/3/2.
5/4/4/3/3/2--I'm assuming the 2 is just a shakeout and a few strides?!

It's an easy 2 miles. Usually seems to be about 90 secs per mile slower than MP.

1 year ago 11/25/2022 9:28am EST

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

I figured I would update this thread so it's useful in the future. I ended up running 3:26 with very even splits!

After a snafu with the porta potties pre-race (I was in back of a long line), I ended up starting one corral late and not being in a pace group. I think this was a good thing - I just ran on feel, reminding myself to slow down. I went through the 10k just under 49, the half just under 1:43, and the 30k just over 2:26. Going out conservatively was the correct move. There was a huge psychological benefit to passing people at the end - I wasn't really running any faster, but I felt like I was picking up steam.

I think my next goal is breaking 1:30 in a spring half marathon, and then seeing what I can do in a fall marathon next year (hopefully this one will be a little warmer). Thanks for the advice, LetsRun!

1 year ago 11/25/2022 9:36am EST

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

FiguringOutMyGoalPace wrote:
I figured I would update this thread so it's useful in the future. I ended up running 3:26 with very even splits!
After a snafu with the porta potties pre-race (I was in back of a long line), I ended up starting one corral late and not being in a pace group. I think this was a good thing - I just ran on feel, reminding myself to slow down. I went through the 10k just under 49, the half just under 1:43, and the 30k just over 2:26. Going out conservatively was the correct move. There was a huge psychological benefit to passing people at the end - I wasn't really running any faster, but I felt like I was picking up steam.
I think my next goal is breaking 1:30 in a spring half marathon, and then seeing what I can do in a fall marathon next year (hopefully this one will be a little warmer). Thanks for the advice, LetsRun!

Congrats, that's great! You ran smart and having had that experience you wil just get better and better.

1 year ago 11/25/2022 6:49pm EST

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

FiguringOutMyGoalPace wrote:
Thanks, all! There are 3:10, 3:20, and 3:30 pace groups - it seems like going out conservatively (with the 3:30 group or just in front of it) is the better play for me. In the half, I found passing people very beneficial, psychologically. Further, as a couple of people mentioned, it's pretty easy to blow up in a marathon.
(Also, I think the 5k split from the half is accurate - it is based off looking at my watch at mile marker 10, and then stopping my watch at the finish. I suppose the race organizers may have misplaced the mile marker, but if they did, I don't think it was by any significant amount.)

No. Go with the 3:20 group. Don't talk yourself into some BS 3:30 when you can run 3:20.

1 year ago 11/28/2022 9:39pm EST

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

FiguringOutMyGoalPace wrote:
I figured I would update this thread so it's useful in the future. I ended up running 3:26 with very even splits!
After a snafu with the porta potties pre-race (I was in back of a long line), I ended up starting one corral late and not being in a pace group. I think this was a good thing - I just ran on feel, reminding myself to slow down. I went through the 10k just under 49, the half just under 1:43, and the 30k just over 2:26. Going out conservatively was the correct move. There was a huge psychological benefit to passing people at the end - I wasn't really running any faster, but I felt like I was picking up steam.
I think my next goal is breaking 1:30 in a spring half marathon, and then seeing what I can do in a fall marathon next year (hopefully this one will be a little warmer). Thanks for the advice, LetsRun!

Good for you! This board can be crazy sometimes but you can train yourself to run faster with the tips from it. It certainly helped me.

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