Should I aim higher than 3:30 after running a 1:34 HM?

I think you have a lot of upside. I think on a perfect day 3:15 might be possible. Just to be safe, I'd say go out at 3:30 marathon pace until 5 miles to go. Then if you feel good, start getting after it, if not just hold the pace to the finish as best you can.

You don't need a homerun every time you go up to bat. So that's why I recommend the more conservative approach. If you run sub 3:30 with a strong finish and plenty left in the tank it'll give you a lot of confidence for your next race.

I think you could go out with the 3:30 or even the 3:35 group (if there is one) and take it easy for the first 20 or so and see how you feel. If the goal is to break 3:30 you really only have to worry about chip time, and I had success one time sticking with a slower pace group at the beginning and then speeding up gradually as the race went on and I felt better.

Good luck and I hope you run well!

Nice work on the recent half marathon! There was actually a really similar post on here from someone a few days ago who wanted to try breaking 3:15 off a 1:33 half. I would suggest sticking with your current plan of starting with the 3:30 group and picking up the pace around the 30km mark if you are feeling really good, but not much earlier than that. The marathon is notorious for tricking you earlier in the race - you often feel great around the half-way mark, pick up the pace and then hit that dreaded 35km wall. Going off your background running and races I'm predicting a 3:26:50. All the best matey!

Sounds like you're in sub-3:20 shape. I would go out with the 3:20 pace group. Race the full the same way you did the half. Conserve effort through 20 -- you might be able to shave off a few minutes in the last 10k if you've fueled well. 1:34-low is worth 3:16.

If I were you I'd probably go with the 3:25 pace group and see how things feel. I strongly suspect a sub 3:20 is very realistic for you based off of the half (especially the strong finish if the last 5k split is accurate), and your consistent mileage. It's not crazy high mileage, but I suspect it's definitely adequate to get you to a 3:20 or below without a blow up if you pace properly, hydrate, take nutrition, and get good weather.

Alternatively, the 3:30 pace group is conservative, and you should be able to close extremely strong, basically flying by people after 18ish miles, if you go with that group, which could be a great confidence boost for you during and after the race.

Your goal is to break 3:30, then just go for that pace until 6 miles left. Feeling good there just go for it and pick up pace gradually. Good luck! 🧙‍♂️.

1:34 would indicate that you can do at least 3:20, in my experience. As you know, since you have run marathons before, performance in HM doesn't always extrapolate to a full marathon. Once you're at the "wall", 20 miles more or less, it's a whole different race. As others have said, go out conservatively, maybe 7:50 or so pace for the first half, then see how you feel. It's ALWAYS better to run the 2nd half faster than the first. Good luck!

OP,

Please remember 1:34 is from frash, zero miles to 13.1

Now running 13.1 more after that, will become a little more challenging.

Allowing the extra time is smart. Better to beat your expected time than to come in after it.

Isn’t full marathon time basically your half marathon x 2 + 10 minutes?

I remember running 1:34:30 a few years back and ran 3:18 flat about 10 weeks later. 50mpw with two 22 mile long runs got me there easily.

Go out in 1:32 and when you feel the burn, the city of brotherly love will cheer you home!

I ran a 1:33 half while training for Boston and only ended up running a 3:28 there. My previous marathon was a 3:26. I'm a woman but my mileage and training sounds similar to what yours was/is. I was getting over a cold during Boston but I don't think I would have been able to run much faster than 3:25. So, in my experience a 1:33 half with 40-50 mpw equated to a 3:26-3:28 full

Thanks, all! There are 3:10, 3:20, and 3:30 pace groups - it seems like going out conservatively (with the 3:30 group or just in front of it) is the better play for me. In the half, I found passing people very beneficial, psychologically. Further, as a couple of people mentioned, it's pretty easy to blow up in a marathon.

(Also, I think the 5k split from the half is accurate - it is based off looking at my watch at mile marker 10, and then stopping my watch at the finish. I suppose the race organizers may have misplaced the mile marker, but if they did, I don't think it was by any significant amount.)

Very accurate! Did a 1:33 and finished in 3:20 last year. Usually the rule of thumb I think is 1/2 time doubled (3:06 for 1:33, 3:08 for 1:34) plus 12-15 mins. But everyone is different!

When coached by me it seem to be double halftime + at most 8- 9 min to predict a Marathon time. 🧙‍♂️

As usual you are wrong, JS. That's because you aren't a real coach.

If what you say was true, then Sammy Nyokaye, with a 62:13 half marathon PR, would be able to run "at most" 2:12:26-2:13:26. But coached by you he has run 2:14, 2:14, 2:18, 2:19 - total failures, as usual for your athletes.

Keep coming to letsrun to learn. Maybe one day you can be a real coach.

3:30 if you want to finish it without excessive suffering, but your HM time indicates you could do it around 3:20.

It depends on the weather. If its cool you should be good for sub 3:20. I have been running 1:33-34 for a few years and been pretty consistent 3:16-19 unless it's warm then I drop down to mid 3:20s to 3:35.

The OP told us he / she was a long sprinter which suggests caution when looking at the recent HM for full pull equivalence. I think 3:30 could be about right but it would be very easy to overlook things in the first half and die a horrible death after burning up all the fuel in the legs. I would suggest aiming for 1:45 even at the half and then see how things feel from there.

For a probably FT runner like this, running the first half too quickly will come back hard in the second half. Trying to bank a minute in the first half might cost 3-5 in the second half. Two minutes may cost ten to fifteen…

Good luck, OP!

OP that taper is awfully extreme. 38/20/10? Two weeks at 40/20 is good. 12 miles the Sunday before, then 5/4/4/3/3/2.